Working The Count

And today was a day just like any other...

2009-01-08T10:06:00.002-05:00

Like most mornings, this one didn't start out much different from the ones before it. Like usual, when my girlfriend leaves for work around 6:30 every morning, I grab my phone and hop online to see if there's been any significant news going on in the world overnight before I fall back asleep for another couple hours.

Only this morning wasn't like all of those other mornings.

Because this morning, instead of seeing some headline about some shooting in Downtown, some holdup gone wrong, some wreck that was snarling traffic for all the morning commuters, what I saw was something which can hurt you in only the way years of devotion to a sports team can: a picture of John Smoltz walking off the field at the Ted (in front of a laughably small crowd) his cap in hand acknowledging the meager standing ovation he was receiving with the headline: "So Long, Smoltz."

It could have been the headline I was expecting -- after a couple months of strenuous rehab, John's arm had once again given out and he was forced to unceremoniously call it a career after yet another unfortunate injury. But, no, that's just what I selfishly wanted it to be.

Back on the 24th of July 1989, I made my first of many pilgrimages to old Fulton County Stadium. Your typical Monday night back in '89, the eventual National League champion San Francisco Giants were in town taking on the Murph and the rest of the lackluster Braves. The 22-year old on the mound for the hometeam had just celebrated his one-year anniversary of his first ML outing the day before and had already ran made a huge impression on the faithful in the 33 starts since his debut against the Mets a year before. For the first time since the man out in rightfield with a #3 on his back burst onto the scene almost a decade prior, Braves fans had something to be excited about.

And, as you're well aware, the kid taking the mound that day was none other than on John Andrew Smoltz.

It was a brilliant outing by Smoltize: a complete game, ten strikeout, three-hitter performance against a team loaded with offense. Unfortunately, the mammoth two-run homer he surrendered to the lethal Kevin Mitchell in the fourth was more than enough for the Reuschel/Brantley/Lefferts/Bedrosian combination the Giants through out, as the Braves weren't able to put a run on the board and lost 2-0.

I guess the thing that sticks out in my mind most about the game in question is the exchange that happened two days later between my father and my seven-year old self. As we drove through town on that Wednesday night, with the Braves and Giants on the radio, closing out their three-game set, Dale Murphy sent a pitch into the left-centerfield seats at the Launching Pad and my dad exclaimed, "see, we could've been there if you kids didn't want to see Smoltz pitch."

I don't know why that statement has always stuck with me, but it's one of those childhood memories that no matter how hard you try to shake it, you just can't.

So, here I sit, almost nineteen and a half years later, trying to shake that and a million other memories of John Smoltz's Hall of Fame career from my head.

As we all know and have heard countless times, Smoltzie was the only player in a Braves uniform from the 106th loss of the 1988 season through the end of the 14 straight division titles in 2006. He was the one on the mound for the 104th loss of the '88 season and a little over three years later, he was the one with Greg Olson in his arms as the Braves celebrated their unbelievable 1991 NL West pennant.

And he was the one who went out in Game Seven of the greatest baseball game of our generation and pitched the game of a lifetime, only to be duped by Chuck Knoblauch and the phantom relay that stopped Lonnie Smith dead in his tracks.

He was the one who stood there, alongside Tom Glavine, Steve Avery and the newly acquired Greg Maddux and was dubbed Atlanta's Young Guns -- a foursome which would finally lead the Braves to the promise land and that one World Series title in 1995.

He was there, along with Chipper in 2005, holding high yet another unlikely division title banner after a new cast of youngsters with names like McCann and Francoeur burst onto the scene and brought a bored fanbase back to life.

And we were there for John when time and time again, injuries began to take their toll on his aging body. From the selfless trip to the bullpen and taking on the closer's role in 2001 -- where he became one of the most elite closers the game has ever seen -- to the unprecedented return to the starting rotation in 2005. From the will-he-or-won't-he talks in the off-seasons after 1996 and 2001 where other teams threw more money at him, but he remained loyal and returned to the only Major League team he's ever known.

But unlike those two previous off-seasons, where Smoltz was willing to take less for a shot at more with the Braves, this off-season just wasn't the same.

As things grow more and more uncertain concerning the future of the Braves franchise, with the post-season drought now sitting at three seasons, the decision to keep reach an agreement became increasingly difficult for the 41-year old and the Braves organization.

For Smoltz, we all know how difficult it has been to sit back and watch the team fumble their way through the winter. Nothing has went right. From the debacle over Jake Peavy, to being outbid repeatedly for a number of free agent pitchers, to the fiasco with Rafael Furcal and the "what just happened here?" agreement, to the only key significant acquisition being a 32-year old starter who cost the Braves two of their most cherished prospects.

For the Braves, it was trying to make the move to start over, only having setback after repeated setback. The dire need for some fresh, young starting pitching. And being unable to get it. The trying to acquire a catalyst for the offense and one more bat for the middle of the lineup. And being unable to get either. To looking down the barrel of an off-season gun where their only major move could be taking a risk on a fan favorite who is coming off reconstructive shoulder surgery and not being ready for action until May or June.

So a decision had to be made. There needed to be a breaking point.

And it doesn't matter what side of the argument you fall on here -- whether you are in support of FireFrankWren.com or feel Smoltz has soldout the franchise like Tommy Glavine did when he left for New York -- the important thing to remember here is what #29 has brought to us all for the past two decades.

Yes, I do feel a little letdown by the front office for not putting forth a stronger effort in bringing Smoltzie back. If only for the mere fact this is going to become a complete public relations disaster for a team who has seen their fanbase become a mere fraction of it was even a decade ago when the city of Atlanta was flourishing and the club had a beautiful new stadium to call home. Things didn't go the way any of us wished last year when the Braves tried to bring Glavine back for one last lap around the track, but we can still all hold our heads high and say he's most likely going out the way he should -- with a tomahawk on his chest.

And, yes, there was also no person more adamant about the age of our pitching staff at the start of last season. I made more than a few concerns with the backbone of the rotation being built around a couple 40-somethings. We all honestly have to start looking towards the future at some point, holding onto the past isn't going to get any more banners put on the facade of the 755 Club at Turner Field anytime soon. But the taste left in my mouth by this is just too much to swallow right now.

As sports fans, we should all have the "whatever is best for the team" mindset. Whether that mindset is directed towards the present or the future, is ultimately up to the holder of said opinion, however. Somethings go above and beyond that, however. As sports fans, we also come to hold the athletes we idolize as something more than just assets to be bought and sold at their peaks and valleys. They become family. They become the familiar face that we can always count on to be there on hot summer nights in August and the cool evenings in October. They are the names and numbers that we wear on our backs -- and in our hearts.

We've said farewell to Greg Maddux and Leo Mazzone. We've done the same to Glavine -- once, and likely to do it again soon. Within the next year, we'll probably say our goodbyes to Bobby Cox, as well. And, eventually, it will be Chipper's turn, too.

They were all there for some, if not most, of this long and winding journey that has lead a city from a team full of perennial losers to the top of the world for almost two decades, but only one of them was there for the full ride.

I want to sit here and say that I'm pulling 100% for Smoltz to get another chance at the Fall Classic with the Red Sox, honestly and truly I do. But I can't. Sometimes, we all gotta be a little selfish -- just like some people say Smoltz is. I wish him nothing but the best and hope he is able to finish out his career on his terms. I also hope he is able to have a healthy 2009 and is able to prove any of the doubters out there wrong.

But I just can't bear to visualize John Smoltz celebrating a World Series victory without the Braves logo on his jersey.

So, good luck, John... Just not that much.

Deconstructing Jeff Francoeur

2008-11-16T10:29:00.004-05:00

Over the past four seasons, there has been no player who has single-handedly caused Braves fans as much mental anguish as Jeff Francoeur. After bursting onto the scene in the summer of 2005, Francoeur has steadily seen his numbers drop -- along with the expectations of fans.

Even as Francoeur has seen his strikeout rate drop and his walk rate rise, the two primary complaints of nearly all of Braves Nation since his call-up, his power numbers have grown progressively worse. So much so, the Braves send him down to Double-A Mississippi in the middle of the 2008 season in hopes of straightening out whatever problems he may have in his mechanics. With his .653 OPS to show for the '08 season, obviously this short stint in the Minors had no positive effect on his levels of production.

So, what has happened with Francoeur over the past three-plus seasons since his initial call-up and torrid tear through the Majors which culminated in his appearances on Sports Illustrated, being dubbed "The Natural"?

Well, there are a number of issues which have contributed to, let's call those Jeff's "Pressure Points"...

The huge descrepency in his BABIP, pBABIP (based on line-drive percentage) and his BAMC (batting average when making contact).

As we all know, these three statistics are very good indicators for just how successful a player actually is, compared to how much of said success is based on luck.

BABIP generally has a league average around .300; pBABIP around .310; and BAMC (BABIP, with HR factored in) usually comes in around the .320 mark.

Jeff has been all over in each of these three categories over his career:

Year	BABIP	pBABIP	BAMC
2005	.337	.274	.383
2006	.284	.298	.324
2007	.337	.301	.362
2008	.274	.287	.291

As you can see, things were going very good for Jeff in 2005, almost everything he was hitting was finding the right spot on the field and continuing onward once it got there. While this has been the only season of Jeff's career where he has seen his flyballs outnumber his groundballs, he also saw an astounding 18.52% of the groundballs that went for hits go for extra-bases, compared to the usual sub-10% for any other ML hitter. So, 2005 was absolutely a right spot, right time season for Francoeur, in just about every sense of the word.

The next season, he came back down to earth, seeing all three stats at league-average or worse. He did see his percentage of balls put in play rise three percent, thus dropping his strikeout percentage almost the same amount while keeping his walk rate around the same. And while he did see his XBH off grounders come back down to league average-type numbers, he did see a lot more flyballs leaving the park or falling in for doubles, so while his isoSLG did dip from the season before, it still remained above league average.

In 2007 was when things started to go completely haywire. While his averages were all around where they were when he entered the league in 2005, his power numbers had dropped off considerably from the two seasons before. The first indicator of why this was lies in where he was hitting the ball. Jeff was pulling the ball considerably more in '07, be it deliberate or not, he ended up hitting over 30 more balls to the left side than he had the season before. The problem now was Jeff was taking the ball to the left side more than your average hitter and not getting as much jump off the bat because of it. Those flyballs that were once finding the gaps were not ending up being easy outs to the leftfielder and those that weren't became little flairs which were lucky to find some grass. With this, Jeff saw an astounding 23.4% of the fly ball hits go from XBH to mere singles.

And then came 2008, when everything that could go wrong did. Jeff was nowhere near league average in any of the average categories, falling over twenty points below the mean in each. Not only was Jeff not getting any left on anything he hit, but everything he hit was into the ground and right at either SS or 2B. Yet, somehow, his strikeout numbers continued to drop, down almost three percent from his first full season in the Majors -- or the difference in about twenty K's over the course of 700 PA. The problem was, Francoeur was simply hitting a lot of the bad pitches he was missing before. When you're putting the ball in play over 75% of the time and not getting on at least 30% of that, you're doomed to have a historically atrocious season like Jeff had in '08.

The 16% increase in the number of ground balls he's hitting.

The thing which stuns me the most about Francoeur over the course of his short career is how many balls he's pounding into the ground. Anyone who has studied his swing even remotely can tell how much natural left and backspin he puts on the ball when he makes solid contact. If anything, Francoeur should be seeing his number of flyball outs increase as he loses carry by swinging at bad pitches and getting under them. But how he can see such a dramatic swing (pardon the pun) in the trajectory of the ball off his bat is boggling. The only logical approach I can attach to it is the old adage of everyone having a hole in their swing. How? Well, we all know Jeff doesn't quite have the best patience in the Braves lineup -- or anyone else's for that matter -- so pitchers are beginning to realize he can't lay off of pitches low in the zone. Everyone knows Jeff has excellent power, so that paired with the natural backspin his swing creates, is going to lead to a lot of success when pitchers work him up in the zone. The problem with that is: Major League pitchers are smarter than Major League hitters. They adapt, they find these holes. And they have learned that one of the biggest tendencies of Francoeur is to go after pitchers low in the zone, resulting in him hitting an endless array of routine grounders to the infield.

And, to those who say the added muscle he put on in the winter between the 2007 and 2008 seasons didn't have an impact, it actually ended in his stats probably being a lot better than they should have been. At least to the tune of helping some of those grounders to reach the outfield and sometimes the gap. While it certainly hurt his intentions -- recall Jeff put on all of the weight in hopes of upping his power numbers from the year before -- it did help him from having an even more catastrophic season than he ended up with.

The number of two strike counts he finds himself in.

While, surprisingly, Jeff doesn't find himself in anymore two strike counts than the average ML hitter, it's what he does in those situations which makes the difference. Unlike most top-level hitters who can battle once in a two-strike situation, Francoeur seems to completely lack this ability. While the average ML hitter still manages to successfully pull themselves out of the hole and reach base around 20% of the time, Francoeur has routinely been in the sub-.150 area in terms of getting on with two strikes. Which further just emphasizes the point that pitchers know exactly how to approach Francoeur than just about any other hitter in the Majors. His strikeout numbers aren't going down because he's becoming more patient and starting to figure out pitchers, it's because they have realized when he is in a two-strike hole, they don't need the thirt strike in order to safely get an out on the board. At that point, Jeff is already on his heels and reeling from being down in the count. All the pitcher has to do is feed his weakness and let him get himself out by doing exactly what I mentioned before -- working him down in the zone and utilizing their infield defense.

The fact over 50% of his plate appearances come to an end before he's even seen more than three pitches from the opposing pitcher.

The success of most hitters is based off the number of pitches they are able to see in any given trip to the plate. The more you can make a pitcher work, the more likely they are to make a mistake. It's a very simple approach, but unfortunately, not one harnessed enough by a lot of young sluggers. Francoeur is the very definition of the type of hitter who goes up to the plate swinging and just hoping that within the course of the first couple pitches, the pitcher makes a mistake. The problem with that is, when you go up swinging freely, you either end up hitting a bad pitch early in the count or in an 0-2 hole. With Francoeur, he simply cannot lay off enough pitchers who where he can work himself into a hitters count early -- either 2-0 or 2-1 -- without whiffing a couple times or weakly fouling off a pitch he would be better off taking. Which leads us to the next point...

The huge swing in performance when he finds himself in a 1-2 count, compared to a 2-1 count.

There is no bigger change of balance in an at-bat than what the hitter and pitcher are able to do with a 1-1 count. With one pitch, one of the two gains a significant advantage -- generally to the tune of a .400 point swing in OPS. These problems befall every hitter and pitcher, however. The big difference with Francoeur is the difference between himself and the average ML hitter in the situation. While, on average, ML hitters end up in a 1-2 count compared to a 2-1 count at about a 2.56:1 ratio, Francoeur sees his ratio jump up to 3.33:1. Not only that, but he sees a .527 difference in his OPS, a .127 difference over the average hitter. If Frenchy is ever going to project to the type of hitter he certainly has the natural talent to be, he simply has to get himself in better situations. You can be Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez, but if you routinely get yourself in as many defensive positions at the plate, you're numbers are only going to continue to suffer.

Alright, so, all of these things seem fairly simple, yes? It just confirms what we all now: Jeff Francoeur just isn't good at hitting a baseball.

So, what does the future hold in store for Jeff if he continues to follow the trends he's currently on? Using all of these tendencies and progressions he's shown thus far, I calculated what his statistics for 2009 may turn out to be:

PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	2B	HR	K	BB
667	.258	.348	.383	.731	27	15	105	48

And what does this show us? Well, the best case scenario is Francoeur remains about a league average hitter. The worst? The Braves are stuck with an outfielder who likely reached his peak during his first 300 ML plate appearances and then let the game catch up with him. The unfortunate thing is, there isn't a GM in baseball who would touch him at this point. Even if the Braves are able to at least get numbers ouf of him that look remotely respectable, they would be left with the situation of dealing him when his stock could potentially be rising, or keeping him in said situation and seeing him return to his old patterns.

An Update...

2008-10-27T19:25:00.001-04:00

I'll be relaunching the site (hopefully) very soon. Stay tuned.

Brandon

Most Profit on Wins in 2008

2008-10-20T17:58:00.003-04:00

Just based on a very simple formula based on team payroll, average player salary and number of wins...

Team	Profit / Win
Florida Marlins	$979,445
Washington Nationals	$619,144
Oakland Athletics	$538,247
Tampa Bay Rays	$523,966
Baltimore Orioles	$496,453
Pittsburgh Pirates	$487,473
San Diego Padres	$382,898
Kansas City Royals	$317,073
Texas Rangers	$294,316
Arizona Diamondbacks	$269,914
San Francisco Giants	$202,584
Minnesota Twins	$189,640
Colorado Rockies	$180,682
Milwaukee Brewers	$116,515
Cincinnati Reds	$62,073
St. Louis Cardinals	$40,528
Cleveland Indians	$37,727
Houston Astros	($43,600)
Philadelphia Phillies	($73,689)
Atlanta Braves	($108,037)
Toronto Blue Jays	($119,841)
Los Angeles Angels	($277,258)
Chicago Cubs	($344,485)
Los Angeles Dodgers	($359,528)
Chicago White Sox	($404,178)
Boston Red Sox	($474,783)
New York Mets	($490,427)
Seattle Mariners	($589,640)
Detroit Tigers	($595,133)
New York Yankees	($1,250,353)

Teams with red values obviously spent way too much money for the amount of games they won; teams in italics are ones who turned a profit on wins and also had a record of .500 or better.

Braves SP dERA Analysis

2008-09-04T19:18:00.002-04:00

Braves starters and their ERA/dERA difference:

Pitcher	GS	ERA	dERA	DIFF
Jurrjens	27	3.59	3.57	+ 0.02
Hudson	22	3.19	3.83	- 0.64
Campillo	21	4.12	3.81	+ 0.31
Reyes	18	5.17	4.26	+ 0.91
Morton	15	6.32	4.89	+ 1.43
Glavine	13	5.54	5.99	- 0.45
Hampton	8	5.67	4.64	+ 1.03
James	7	9.10	7.60	+ 1.50
Smoltz	5	2.00	2.35	- 0.35
Bennett	4	6.48	5.12	+ 1.36

No surprise Jurrjens has been the only one to really live up their own potential and not let the game behind him effect his composure. Also no real surprise Hampton, Reyes and Morton have been hurt so much by the defense behind them because they've been starting in the second half with a horrible defense behind them. The opposite can be said for the positive influence the defense had on the numbers of Hudson, Glavine and Smoltz.

Need proof?

First half ERA/dERA difference: -0.06
Second half ERA/dERA difference: +1.96

Considering the league average difference for starters right now is at +0.24, both of those numbers are almost lying on the extreme ends of the spectrum.

Needless to say, the team is certainly suffering from the loss of Teixeira and the addition of Prado and Infante on a daily basis.

On Mark Kotsay and Joey Devine

2008-08-30T00:52:00.000-04:00

(Note: This was all warranted by a thread concerning the Kotsay/Devine trade on Braves-Nation, you can stroll over there and check it out if you want more context.)

Bottomline is this: I was incredibly high on the Kotsay/Devine trade when it went down because I felt it gave the Braves the one piece they were missing to become a legit contender -- a bonafide CF who can play exceptional defense and supply at least leage-average pop. What they gave up was a piece which they already have a surplus of: RH middle relief type pitchers (see: Yates, Acosta, Boyer, Resop, Stockman, Schreiber); along with RH lights out guys like Soriano and Moylan, and two RH swingmen in Bennett and Carlyle. The Braves were absolutely loaded at the time with RH relievers who were more than capable of getting the job done. So trading one of those, any of those, for a crucial piece like Kotsay was a no-brainer. It could have been Resop, Yates, Boyer whoever. The difference in Devine and all the others, however -- outside of Stockman and Schreiber -- was they had at least somewhat proven themself capable of being an asset at the ML level. Devine was simply the odd man out. I'm sure it came down to either Devine or Acosta, and while both are very comparable, the club obviously had more faith in Acosta (see his 21 outings in '07 compared to Joey's ten).

Remember, this is all the mindset of the organization on January 14th, hindsight is completely 20/20.

Did any of us, be it supporters of the trade or the dijectors, see all the injuries which have befalled the starting rotation? The injuries to both Soriano and Moylan? The struggles of Diaz, Francoeur, Escobar and Johnson? The combined 182 starts between Infante, Blanco and Norton? The team being so far out of the race in July they would deal Mark Teixeira for the much inferior Casey Kotchman? Chipper missing a month of action? Kotsay missing almost two months? Julian Taverez, Vladimir Nunez and Elmer Dessens being crucial parts of the bullpen on August 30th?

No, the answer is not a damn one of us saw any of it coming. Even I, one of the biggest doubters of this team coming into the 2008 season, predicted this type of epic collapse.

Sure, sending Devine to Oakland for Kotsay and then turing around and dealing him to Boston before September looks like a total bitch move at this point. Who wouldn't think so? But at the time, the deal was a very logical one which greatly enhanced what was likely going to be an offense which fell below league average; while the bullpen was left with very few questions or concerns.

Devine simply didn't fit into the equation, no matter if you view him as being just a regular RH reliever or the next Jon Papelbon. Trading away expendable pieces for options which are going to greatly enhance another part of your club is what you do, it's how you build a successful team. Granted, you likely don't trade them for one-off thirty-plus options like Kotsay all the time, but given the Braves current outfield depth all around the Minors, this time it made sense. Did it work out? No, but in this grand game, there's never guarantees.

Somewhere down the line, you think the Twins are going to regret trading away Matt Garza for Delmon Young? You bet your sweet ass they are. Hell, they already do. But I'll say now what I said then, it's a move they could afford to make. They had a lot of questions in their outfield with Torii Hunter going to the Angels and needed to add OF depth. Their strong point at the time was having a slew of young, ML ready starting pitchers -- Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Baker, Bonser -- not to mention they also still had Santana and Liriano was making great progress. So it made perfect sense to acquire a stud OF prospect in Young for a expendable prospect like Garza. And how have things worked out for the Twins? Well, I'd say being sixteen games over .500, 1.5 games back in their division and 2.5 games back in the Wildcard race is pretty damn good.

Does that mean they wouldn't like to have Garza back? Of course not. But they still have the best young overall core of any staff in baseball. They may not have the best 1-2-3 punch, but they certainly have more depth than any other team out there. Is Young going to turn into a legit star? Right now he's putting up pretty mediocre numbers, but he could always be one AB away from turning the corner and becoming the next Carlos Beltran.

How does all of this tie into the Braves? They could very well be in the situation the Twins are in right now and no one would be kicking themselves to any extreme because Joey Devine is putting up a good season in an incredible Oakland bullpen. Hell, if there is one thing which can be learned from this, it's you can have two pitchers like Devine and Brad Ziegler in your bullpen and still be ten games below .500 and twenty games out of first place.

Relievers are only one player. They're going to be lucky to get into half of your team's ballgames. Unless you do have a player like Mo Rivera, Jon Papelbon, Franky Rodriguez or Joe Nathan to close out games for you, almost every part of your bullpen is going to be interchangable and it isn't going to matter from game to game how a reliever performed the day before, or the day before that.

An everyday player is going to be in the lineup most likely 90% of team games and likely come to the plate 600 times in a season. When your options in center heading into a season are two light-hitting players with little to no ML experience, and your offense is already showing possible signs of struggling, what do you move to try and remedy the situation? Well, if one of the more consistent CF (re: consistent, not star-caliber or most productive) of this generation, you attempt to make a move for them.

Do you trade away a SP? Well, no, the Braves actually had to go out and get Jurrjens and Glavine, so that's out of the question.

Do you trade away a bat? Well, no, if the Braves had enough of those, they wouldn't be in this situation.

Do you trade away one of the key prospects? Absolutely not. I'm all for shipping off unproven prospects, but only if you are getting a player who is going to help out the team in the long-term, not essentially a rental like with Kotsay.

How about the bullpen? Well, we've got a lot of righties, and with the addition of Ohman there is now a core of lefties... What could be the most valuable, yet expendable, piece there? Hrm, Joey Devine has a lot of upside, and we've got a couple arms in Acosta, Resop and Stockman who are comparable, so let's send him to Oakland.

Honestly, how can you possibly doubt the logic involved here?

The Blanco Futility Watch

2008-08-23T21:43:00.000-04:00

Yes, my friends, forget the Corky Watch... We've now got the Blanco watch.

And what, exactly, is the Blanco Watch? Well, it has to do with Gregor's lack of extra-base hits.

As you can see from this list, Gregor Blanco is approaching a rather dubious honor: the most PA without reaching twenty extra-base hits. Now, granted, I limited it to post-1990 -- for obvious reasons -- but with a little more playing time, which we all know he'll see, he can possibly reach the coveted top spot.

So, what is it going to take?

Well, right now Blanco has 16 XBH in 454 PA, good for one every 28.375 trips to the plate.

He's averaging 4.37 PA per start (101 starts) and 0.87 PA off the bench (15 games) in the Braves first 130 games. He should end up with around 109 more PA as a starter and around three more off the bench, giving him around 566 PA for the season. And with his 28.375 PA/XBH average, he would end up with right at 19.95 XBH for the season...

Those 566 PA would bump him up into sixth place, past Mike Caruso's 1999 campaign...

Now, I'm sure the top two positions on the list are unobtainable, but will he be able to reach 600 PA? It would only take him 4.57 PA per game, but he'd essentially have to start everyday from here on out. Not only that, but getting the 146 PA would put him slightly over 20 XBH with his current pace.

Can he do it?

Power Rankings -- 08/10/08

2008-08-10T20:13:00.002-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Chicago Cubs	70-47
(2)	+2	Tampa Bay Rays	70-46
(3)	---	Los Angeles Angels	73-43
(4)	-2	Boston Red Sox	67-50
(5)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	63-53
(6)	---	Milwaukee Brewers	66-51
(7)	+1	Minnesota Twins	65-51
(8)	-1	Los Angeles Dodgers	58-58
(9)	---	New York Mets	62-54
(10)	---	New York Yankees	63-54
(11)	+3	St. Louis Cardinals	65-54
(12)	+3	Florida Marlins	61-56
(13)	-1	Arizona Diamondbacks	59-58
(14)	-3	Chicago White Sox	64-51
(15)	+3	Texas Rangers	60-58
(16)	-3	Detroit Tigers	57-59
(17)	-1	San Francisco Giants	49-66
(18)	+1	Oakland Athletics	54-62
(19)	+4	Pittsburgh Pirates	53-63
(20)	-3	Cincinnati Reds	52-66
(21)	---	Houston Astros	57-59
(22)	+2	Toronto Blue Jays	59-58
(23)	-1	Atlanta Braves	55-62
(24)	+1	Kansas City Royals	53-64
(25)	-5	Baltimore Orioles	56-59
(26)	---	Colorado Rockies	53-66
(27)	---	Cleveland Indians	51-64
(28)	---	San Diego Padres	45-72
(29)	---	Washington Nationals	44-73
(30)	---	Seattle Mariners	45-72

Difference in Team ERA and Team DERA

2008-08-10T18:44:00.006-04:00

So, for those of you who are unaware of what dERA (Defense-Independent ERA), here's a brief definition from Wikipedia:

Defense-Independent ERA (dERA), created by Voros McCracken, projects what a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) would have been, if not for the effects of defense and luck on the actual games in which he pitched.

I think that's pretty point blank. Just go show you which variables are used to determine it, they are: batters faced, home runs allowed, total walks allowed, intentional walks allowed, strikeouts and hit batsmen.

And my point here today is to differentiate between those teams which have most benefited from their defense (ie: have a negative difference between ERA and dERA) and those who have been most hurt. In a round-a-bout way, it's determining who has the best defense without taking into consideration hollow stats like fielding percentage, errors and such.

Onto the numbers...

Most Helped by Defense

Rank	Team	ERA	dERA	DIFF
(1)	Phillies	3.93	4.26	- 0.33
(2)	Athletics	3.73	3.96	- 0.26
(3)	Angels	3.88	4.09	- 0.21
(4)	Rays	3.77	3.95	- 0.18
(5)	Cubs	3.82	4.00	- 0.18
(6)	Brewers	4.00	4.16	- 0.16
(7)	Red Sox	3.77	3.91	- 0.14
(8)	Orioles	4.67	4.80	- 0.13
(9)	Cardinals	4.24	4.36	-0.12
(10)	Mets	4.07	4.16	- 0.09
(11)	Blue Jays	3.67	3.73	- 0.06

Most Hurt by Defense

Rank	Team	ERA	dERA	DIFF
(1)	Rockies	4.82	4.19	+ 0.63
(2)	Rangers	5.31	4.74	+ 0.57
(3)	Royals	4.62	4.05	+ 0.57
(4)	Pirates	5.18	4.69	+ 0.49
(5)	Yankees	4.27	3.84	+ 0.43
(6)	Reds	4.58	4.23	+ 0.35
(7)	Diamondbacks	3.99	3.64	+ 0.35
(8)	Giants	4.27	3.97	+ 0.30
(9)	Mariners	4.42	4.13	+ 0.29
(10)	Padres	4.32	4.05	+ 0.27
(11)	Twins	4.33	4.11	+ 0.22
(12)	Indians	4.40	4.20	+ 0.20
(13)	White Sox	3.99	3.82	+ 0.17
(14)	Marlins	4.52	4.36	+ 0.16
(15)	Dodgers	3.66	3.57	+ 0.09
(16)	Nationals	4.42	4.34	+ 0.08
(17)	Astros	4.58	4.55	+ 0.03
(18)	Tigers	4.52	4.50	+ 0.02
(19)	Braves	4.06	4.05	+ 0.01

Waiver Wire Primer

2008-08-07T21:56:00.001-04:00

Ok, so, there is (and always will be) mass confusion over how the waiver period works between July 31 and August 31, so I thought I'd try and help shed a little light on what actually happens during that time.

First, the basic: Any player can be put on waivers, and most are. Teams can put up to seven players on waivers each day, and by the first few weeks, most teams have put their entire 40-man roster on the waiver wire.

Why?

After the trade deadline passes on July 31st, any player a team wishes to trade who is currently on their 40-man roster has to pass through revocable waivers in order to be dealt to another team.

Example: If the Braves wish to trade Will Ohman to another team, he first has to be placed on waivers. If a team places a claim on him, the Braves have 48 hours to work out a deal with the club in question. If no team claims him, the Braves can then trade him to any club at any point over the next 30 days.

Now, how does the process work once a player is placed onto waivers?

First, each team in the league the player's team is in has right to make the first claim. Priority is based on a worst-to-first ranking. So, using the above example, if both the Astros and Phillies claimed Ohman, the Houston would be the winners, because of their having a worse record of the teams making the claim.

If a player passes through their own league without a claim being made, then the opposing league then has a chance to claim the player. So, in order for a team like the Red Sox to claim a National League player, they must first clear waivers in the NL. However, the same worst-to-first priority also works in the opposite league, as well. So, in order for Boston to claim an NL player, the eleven teams with a worse record must also pass.

So, what happens once a player has been claimed?

Ok, here's where it can get a little more confusing.

There are three different options: (a) the original team can revoke the player, (b) try to work out a trade with the team who made the claim or (c) send the player to the team who made the claim with that team accepting all financial burdens tied to the player in question.

Option A: Since the type of waivers we are referring to here are revocable waivers, the team who has placed a player on waivers can pull them back at any point if a team makes a claim. Nothing changes, the player remains on the original team and the team who made the claim has no stake or ties to the player they placed a claim on. The one drawback of this is, a player can only be placed on revocable waivers once. If a team pulls a claimed player back before the 48 hour window closes, they cannot be placed back on waivers within the current season. If they attempt to do so, it will be on irrevocable waivers and the player will be free to go to which ever team makes a claim.

Option B: If a team makes a claim on a player, the original team is free to attempt to work out a deal with that club for the player. The hitch is, any players who are dealt for the original player, must either pass (or have passed) through waivers themselves or not be on the claiming team's 40 man roster. Once it reaches this point, trades work just like they normally would, but with that one small issue.

Option C: If a player is placed on waivers and claimed, the original team has the right to allow the claiming team to acquire the player while accepting their existing contract, play the original team a waiver fee and have to place the player on their active roster. This is the main reason you never see players like Chipper, Manny, Pedro or whoever else has a massive contract claimed -- at any point the original team could pull an "ok, take him, he's yours" and the claiming team would be forced to bite the bullet and take the player. This has happened a number of times, most notably in 2000 when the Devil Rays placed Jose Canseco on waivers, had the Yankees claim him and Tampa freeing themselves of the $3M burden and giving him to New York.

Alright, now, what if a player passes through the three day waiver period without a claim being made? At that point, it becomes similar to option B above. The player is free to be traded to any other ML team, but like with option B, any player acquired for them has to either have passed through waivers or not be on the 40 man roster.

One last note: The blocking of a player. A number of years ago, the Expos had placed Pedro Martinez on waivers and were trying to work out a deal with another team to acquire him. The problem was, before the other team could make the claim on Pedro, another team lower in the standings made a claim on him with no other intentions than to keep him from going to their division rival. That team made the claim, had no intentions of acquiring him, the Expos weren't just going to hand him over, so the 48 hour window passed and Pedro was taken off the waiver wire.

The problem with this is, and could very well be the case with the Red Sox and Padres right now over Brian Giles, what if the waiving team says to take the player? Boston obviously had no interest or desire to acquire Giles when they made the claim to block Tampa from getting him, but now that supposed trade talks have opened up between the two teams, you have to wonder if San Diego may have wanted to turn Giles over to Boston. And if Boston would have been stuck with Giles, perhaps that is what lead to the two clubs opening up trade discussions, mainly for the Pads to also be able to get something for Giles instead of just sending him on his merry way to New England.

One last thing: As I'm sure almost everyone knows by now, in order for a player to qualify to be on a postseason roster, they have to be in an organization by 5pm on August 31st. Any player acquired after that point will not be eligible to play in the postseason.

Alright, are we clear now?

If you have any additional questions, feel free to ask and I'll attempt to answer with the best of my ability.

Power Rankings -- 08/01/08

2008-08-01T20:30:00.002-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Chicago Cubs	65-44
(2)	+1	Boston Red Sox	61-48
(3)	+2	Los Angeles Angels	68-40
(4)	-2	Tampa Bay Rays	63-44
(5)	-1	Philadelphia Phillies	59-49
(6)	---	Milwaukee Brewers	60-49
(7)	+8	Los Angeles Dodgers	54-54
(8)	+1	Minnesota Twins	60-48
(9)	+1	New York Mets	58-50
(10)	+3	New York Yankees	59-49
(11)	-4	Chicago White Sox	60-47
(12)	-4	Arizona Diamondbacks	56-52
(13)	+1	Detroit Tigers	55-53
(14)	---	St. Louis Cardinals	61-50
(15)	-4	Florida Marlins	58-51
(16)	+3	San Francisco Giants	44-63
(17)	---	Cincinnati Reds	51-58
(18)	---	Texas Rangers	56-53
(19)	-3	Oakland Athletics	53-54
(20)	+1	Baltimore Orioles	51-56
(21)	+4	Houston Astros	50-57
(22)	-2	Atlanta Braves	50-58
(23)	---	Pittsburgh Pirates	50-58
(24)	-2	Toronto Blue Jays	54-54
(25)	+1	Kansas City Royals	50-59
(26)	-2	Colorado Rockies	49-61
(27)	---	Cleveland Indians	47-60
(28)	---	San Diego Padres	42-67
(29)	---	Washington Nationals	38-70
(30)	---	Seattle Mariners	41-67

Power Rankings -- 7/24/08

2008-07-24T18:38:00.002-04:00

Been about three weeks, my bad. Blame work.

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Chicago Cubs	59-42
(2)	---	Tampa Bay Rays	59-41
(3)	---	Boston Red Sox	60-43
(4)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	54-47
(5)	---	Los Angeles Angels	62-39
(6)	+2	Milwaukee Brewers	58-43
(7)	-1	Chicago White Sox	57-43
(8)	+2	Arizona Diamondbacks	50-51
(9)	-2	Minnesota Twins	55-46
(10)	+5	New York Mets	54-47
(11)	+1	Florida Marlins	53-48
(12)	+2	Detroit Tigers	52-49
(13)	+3	New York Yankees	56-45
(14)	-5	St. Louis Cardinals	57-46
(15)	-2	Los Angeles Dodgers	49-52
(16)	-5	Oakland Athletics	52-49
(17)	---	Cincinnati Reds	50-53
(18)	---	Texas Rangers	52-50
(19)	+4	San Francisco Giants	42-58
(20)	---	Atlanta Braves	48-53
(21)	-2	Baltimore Orioles	48-51
(22)	+2	Toronto Blue Jays	49-51
(23)	-2	Pittsburgh Pirates	47-54
(24)	+4	Colorado Rockies	45-58
(25)	---	Houston Astros	46-55
(26)	+1	Kansas City Royals	45-57
(27)	-5	Cleveland Indians	44-56
(28)	-2	San Diego Padres	38-64
(29)	---	Seattle Mariners	38-63
(30)	---	Washington Nationals	38-63

Best By Position -- National League

2008-07-24T17:30:00.004-04:00

So, how about we take a look at the players who are currently above league average for their position? Sound good? Alrighty...

Took the league average for OPS, OBP, isolated SLG, got the players who were over the average and here's the results by raw positional OPS+ (player OPS / positional OPS, with no weight for league or park factor).

CATCHER

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Brian McCann	.926	144	130
Ryan Doumit	.917	140	128
Geovany Soto	.842	116	118
Russell Martin	.827	115	116
Benji Molina	.748	96	105

FIRST BASE

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Lance Berkman	1.062	178	128
Albert Pujols	1.060	179	127
Mark Teixeira	.887	135	107
Prince Fielder	.861	129	103
Derrek Lee	.860	124	103
Adrian Gonzalez	.844	121	101
Carlos Delgado	.824	118	99

SECOND BASE

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Chase Utley	.945	145	126
Dan Uggla	.934	140	125
Orlando Hudson	.830	112	111
Kelly Johnson	.752	100	100

THIRD BASE

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Chipper Jones	1.062	182	134
David Wright	.901	139	114
Troy Glaus	.894	135	113
Edwin Encarnacion	.867	122	110
Aramis Ramirez	.848	118	107
Garrett Atkins	.813	113	103
Ty Wiggington	.810	105	103
Mark Reynolds	.808	105	102

SHORTSTOP

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Hanley Ramirez	.923	144	127
J.J. Hardy	.851	124	117
Jose Reyes	.844	121	116
Jimmy Rollins	.765	96	105

LEFTFIELD

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Matt Holliday	1.011	156	127
Pat Burrell	.997	154	126
Adam Dunn	.943	142	119
Jason Bay	.916	141	115
Ryan Braun	.905	132	114
Carlos Lee	.897	134	113

CENTERFIELD

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Rick Ankiel	.887	131	118
Nate McLouth	.884	132	118
Carlos Beltran	.833	121	111
Aaron Rowand	.804	111	107
Mike Cameron	.799	107	107
Jim Edmonds	.763	101	102

RIGHTFIELD

Player	OPS	OPS+	pOPS+
Xavier Nady	.908	139	116
Brad Hawpe	.872	121	112
Justin Upton	.786	102	101

Top Five pOPS+
(1) Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL - 134
(2) Brian McCann, C, ATL - 130
(3) Lance Berkman, 1B, HOU - 128
(4) Ryan Doumit, C, PIT - 128
(5) Albert Pujols, 1B, STL - 127

The Atlanta Braves: Story of a Failed Franchise

2008-07-21T00:53:00.004-04:00

As hard a pill as it may be to swallow, it's a hard to dispute stance -- the Atlanta Braves are a franchise which is ultimately run very poorly.

For the better part of the past two decades, the Braves have remained one of the Majors elite teams, despite not evolving much as an organization. Over the run of division titles through the past three seasons of mediocre on-field play, the Braves have not strayed much from the same basic philosophy: win this season. And with the talent they have been able to put on the field, it hasn't remained much of an issue for the better part of the years of success. The dam is starting to show some signs of wear, however, and you can begin to see the cracks forming.

The team has never truly had to worry about the future to extent they have at this point. They've always had money to spend, immediate youth to fall back upon and a core of veterans willing to commit to one of the game's most decorated franchises. They have essentially ignored the underlying problems as each of those key components drift away, however.

After the debacle with the AOL-Time Warner merger, the money began to dry up. And with the new owners, Liberty Media, unproven in the world of professional sports, no one truly knows what direction the team will head financially. There have been rumors and statements swirling around since the purchase was made official late last spring, but the new ownership has remained relatively mum on just how much money they are going to pump into their latest acquisition. Team CEO Terry McGuirk has stated the ownership group has been more than willing to stay out of management matters, but do you know of any major corporation which stays out of the business decisions of a billion dollar purchase once they begin pumping money into it? All of this is something we will have to take a wait-and-see approach on, however. No one truly knows what will happen to the money currently being paid to the likes of Mike Hampton (whom the Braves will still have to pay $6M to buy out), Tom Glavine, Mark Teixeira and Mark Kotsay.

Even if the Braves end up with around than the estimated $50M which could become available, what is the best method to use it? As I stated above, the long-standing mindset has been one of keeping a short-sighted approach -- looking towards the current season and little more. Regardless of the amount of money available to Frank Wren and crew, this is something which must end. It is also something which has to change from the draft process all the way through the type of players brought in via trades and free agency.

One of the most defining characteristics of the Braves since Bobby Cox rejoined the team as general manager following the 1985 season has been their desire to draft high school players and allow them the appropriate amount of time to develop in the Minors, giving players only a taste of the big time before they had been in the organization for three to four seasons. Even with players like Javy Lopez, Ryan Klesko and Chipper Jones, all of which had become highly touted ML prospects during their time down on the farm, had to earn their stripes with the big club. There simply were no free passes, regardless of the level of potential. And even as teams like the Oakland Athletics turn to a draft day approach of looking towards college players who could have a near-immediate impact at the Major League level, the Braves remained steadfast in their ways. So while they have uber-prospects like Jordan Schafer, Cody Johnson and Jason Heyward waiting in the wings, Schafer is not likely to see Turner Field until next spring and the other two are still at least two seasons away from even being considered key pieces. Even players like Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann, who most fans considered having taken a quick path to the Majors played full seasons at Danville, Rome and combined for a full season worth of action at Myrtle Beach and Mississippi before being called up mid-season in 2005. Meanwhile, teams who have chosen to take more of a focus on college players, at least in the early rounds, have found great success. As early as 2005, players such as Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Pelfrey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen and Clay Buchholz and Matt Garza have seen great success with their respective clubs. And while the Braves top pick that season was Joey Devine -- a player who made his ML debut a mere three months after pitching for North Carolina State in the College World Series -- he was rather unceremoniously sent to Oakland to help fill the one-season void the club had in centerfield with Mark Kotsay. One year later, it was right back to the high school kids and Cody Johnson. When you continually have holes and question marks to fill each off season, usually going with fringe role players like Kotsay or aging veterans like Tom Glavine, it makes little sense to keep selecting players who won't be able to have an almost immediate impact. It seems like all over the Majors, the path to the Show is getting shorter and shorter... That is, unless you're stuck in places like Rome, Myrtle Beach or Mississippi.

Let's talk for a minute about the players like Kotsay and Glavine, who the Braves routinely use to fill the void for a single season. I would even go so far as to throw a J.D. Drew or Mark Teixeira-type into this group, as well. Each season it seems, the Braves enter March with at least one or two different situations where they are in dire need of filling a void left by a big name free agent they were unprepared for. When Gary Sheffield left town for the Yankees after the '04 season, the Braves to outfield prospects were Ryan Langerhans and Cory Aldridge. Unfortunately, neither had the necessary skill set to be an impact player when the Braves needed them to be. Of course, players like Gregor Blanco and Jeff Francoeur were both in the system, but neither had so much as saw their name written on a AA lineup card. Then, of course, once Drew headed to Boston after one year in a Braves uniform, the team was left taking a risk on 34 year old Raul Mondesi, who had only played thirty games in the season before. After two months wasted, Jeff Francoeur, who was likely ready entering the season, finally got the call. And the, of course, there is the Mark Teixeira debacle. After seeing the bullpen be absolutely atrocious during the 2006 season, 1B Adam LaRoche sent to Pittsburgh in a deal for lefty Mike Gonzalez. Of course, this left Atlanta with fringe prospect Scott Thorman at first and washed-up veteran Craig Wilson as the back-up plan. By May, the team's top prospect, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, was called up to split time behind the plate and at first, with hopes of him developing into the 1B of the future, having been blocked at his natural position by McCann. And even after Salty, who had developed into a fan favorite, began to get comfortable as a Major Leaguer, the Braves still saw it fit to deal for Teixeira, who would be a free agent after the next season. All of this because the Braves saw their window to compete was the season in which they were in. So, the potential 1B for years to come was now in Texas, while the Braves were far from guaranteed to resign their hired gun long-term. And after the team fell short in2007, the major off-season move for 2008 was the acquisition of 42 year old Tom Glavine and Mark Kotsay. Kotsay because of Jordan Schafer not being felt to be ML-ready; Glavine because he was a a key part of the success in the 90's and the team's biggest problem in '07 was the lack of depth in the rotation. The price? Eight million for Glavine, prospect Joey Devine for Kotsay.

So that leaves us right back at the present. Glavine and Kotsay have both broken down. Teixeira is guaranteed to go elsewhere. Gregor Blanco has become an everyday player, despite being one of the weaker hitters in the Majors. Corky Miller, Greg Norton and Ruben Gotay are key bench players. And the team has been without a closer for much of the season. Shockingly, the Braves currently have almost $40M tied up in three pitchers who are over the age of 35 (Smoltz, Hampton, Glavine) who have combined to throw less than ninety innings. Meanwhile, youngsters Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes have been carrying the rotation. Granted, the contracts of Smoltz and Hampton are set in stone, the signing of Glavine was far from necessary. As for the bench, players such as Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Clint Sammons, who really have nothing else to prove at Richmond, have seen their ML roster spots crowded by players who have no business even being on a big league roster. Even Schafer could be thrown into center, the team could certainly be no worse than they currently are. And what to do about Teixeira? Well, the Braves have no prospects capable of stepping in -- surprise, surprise. So what does this mean? Most likely the routine will once again repeat itself. Likely seeing someone the like of Jones, Lillibridge or pitchers Todd Redmond or Kris Medlen going elsewhere to secure someone.

Alright, now what do the Braves need to do, exactly? Well, if you know anything about me, you know over the years how much I have touted the team models of franchises like Oakland, Minnesota and Florida. All three -- along with Arizona and Tampa, to an extent -- are routinely
doing a combination of buying and selling talent. This differs greatly from the usual team model of either designating themself as needing a certain type of help and buying, or putting all the high-priced, older talent on the market and selling to whomever could make the best offer. With the type of activity the above mentioned threesome takes part in, they are always looking towards the future while never exactly entering into a full-on rebuilding mode -- which as fans in Pittsburgh and Kansas City can tell you, can be a never ending process. They always have enough young talent, mixed in with a handful of veterans to bring experience and influence the kids, to be competitive. They may not always enter the season as a favorite, or even play into October, but they are always on the verge of something special. And each of these franchises has a budget a fraction of what Atlanta even had to work with under the AOL-Time Warner ownership. They aren't afraid to turn over players in their late twenties and on the verge of free agency for another crop of fresh talent. And when those players are nearly ripe enough to take the field in the Majors, they aren't hesitant to give them the chance to succeed or fail. There is a happy medium to be found here. The Braves actually demonstrated it perfectly this past off-season by sending Edgar Renteria to Detroit for Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. The Braves finally felt confident in a youngster (Yunel Escobar) to throw them directly into the fire as an everyday player and got a very good, ML-ready starter and four-star outfield prospect in return. Hernandez may still be two seasons away from being on the radar, but Jurrjens alone has proven to be solid enough to already make this move a success.

The bottom line is the team needs more of this. Their chance of making the post-season in 2008 are getting closer and closer to nill, as are their chances at being able to compete with the AL East teams for the services of Mark Teixeira. So why not shop him and see what type of talent they can get in return? Regardless of what they get, if anything, they are going to be considered the losers in their deal with Texas last July. Sometimes, you simply have to swallow your pride, admit you made a mistake and try and right those wrongs. The best possible way to do this is actually taking a look at the horizon, while still trying to keep your feet on the path towards success. Something the Braves must do, else they become a team deeply-rooted in mediocrity year after year like the Orioles. Sure, they can go out and attempt to spend money on players like Ben Sheets and Pat Burrell this winter, but unless they can revamp their farm system and make it so they actually have ML-ready talent at their disposal, it's all going to be a wash.

Did Philadelphia Just Win the NL East?

2008-07-18T18:54:00.003-04:00

Since the trade for Joe Blanton went down yesterday, I've heard a lot of people going both ways on the move. Everything from this being a horrible move because of Citizens Bank Ballpark to the Phillies making what could end up being the most underrated move of the trade season.

I fall on the latter end of the spectrum.

If the Phillies were making this move in anticipation of Blanton becoming their ace or at least a go-to guy down the stretch, I definitely agree, it was a needless trade. However, Philadelphia knows exactly what they were doing here -- they acquired a pitcher who is very capable of eating innings and stabilizing a rotation. If you look at the rotation he was coming from in Oakland, he had essentially become a backend guy out there, with the emergence of Justin Duchscherer after years as a reliever and the lefties Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, who came over in the Danny Haren trade.

He's going to fill almost the exact same role with the Phils. Cole Hamels is one of the best number ones in the game, Kyle Kendrick and Brett Myers both have the stuff to be lights out number twos and Jaime Moyer is still going strong at 45. Even if Myers moves back to the bullpen now that he's been recalled, Blanton would likely factor into the three or four spot in the rotation. At that point, having someone with the type of stuff Blanton has working against other guys at the backend of the rotation, you're going to win a considerable amount of ballgames which would otherwise be a crapshoot matching up fringe and swing starters.

Something else to consider is Blanton isn't a flyball pitchers like an Eric Milton, who had a horrible stretch in both Philly and Cincinnati after moving from the cavernous Metrodome. His main problem right now is giving up too many good pitches early in the count. If he can keep the ball down in the zone, he's going to give the Phillies a quality number two starter's numbers out of the backend. Something which can make or break your season, just ask any Braves fan how last season went.

And how does this effect the bullpen if Myers does make the move? Well, with how lights out Brad Lidge has been, Ryan Madson continuing to piece it all together and show the potential everyone bestowed on him, Chad Durbin being one of the best middle relievers in the game and LOOGY J.C. Romero shutting everyone down, it gives them the league's best bullpen to support what could be the league's best rotation and offense.

And just as a reference point, when I was doing my analysis of the contenders' top three starters a few weeks ago, I had Blanton ranked seventeenth out of thirty pitchers in the AL. For the Phillies, I had Hamels rated third, Kendrick 19th and Moyer 21st. It may not be a vast improvement, but it puts some more distance between them and the Mets, who were already a few places below Philly.

Now, what about those Mets? I'm about as sold on them as I am the Marlins, which is to say, not very much at all. Wright, Reyes and Beltran are going to lead this team, there's no debating it. They are going to live and die with how they peform down the stretch. They are getting some added production from Delgrado, along with unexpected help from Damion Easley and Fernando Tatis, but is it going to be enough? With how shakey and makeshift the Mets have been all season, I don't see anyway their offense can compete with either Philly or Florida. Right now, the Mets can settle with a rotation of Santana, Maine, Pedro, Perez and Pelfrey and still hang with anyone in terms of pitching, but their offense is going to need a bat the calibur of Adam Dunn if they are going to score the runs needed to hang with the other big bats in the NL East.

As for the Marlins, the addition of Josh Johnson isn't going to be enough to solidify their pitching. If they are going to make a run at this, they absolutely have to add a veteran big-name arm. Problem is, outside of a Josh Fogg, Bronson Arroyo or Jarrod Washburn, there aren't many solid pitchers out there to be had. They could perhaps swing something with the Mariners to make a move for Erik Bedard, but it isn't really in the Marlins nature to send away talent for rentals. As we all know, they are usually on the flipside of the equation. Olsen, Nolasco and Miller have been just good enough to keep them a game-and-a-half back entering tonight's action, but they just don't have anyone on their roster or in the Minors who is ready to make the jump and contribute in a pennant race.

So, back to my original question, has the acquisition of Blanton solidified the Phillies as the team to beat in the East? I say absolutely. They may be currently tied with the Mets, but right now, New York just has the hot-hand. They are going to come down at some point, and most likely will fall back into the same void they were in for the time Willie Randolph was still on the payroll. All the Phillies have to do is keep pace until they do hit the inevitable wall and they could have the division wrapped up by the middle of September, depending on when it does happen. I would have hands down given the Phillies the advantage prior to yesterday's move, but now, I have no doubt they will run away with this division unless the Mets and Marlins can make some major impact moves in the next two weeks.

Random Notes for 7/17

2008-07-17T11:26:00.001-04:00

Been a few days since I've posted anything -- blame work -- so let's look at a few bits you probably didn't notice.

-- In the history of the game, there has only been seven catchers who have started off their careers playing in at least 115 games and logging over 475 plate appearances in three of their first four seasons.

Butch Wynegar (all 4 seasons)
Benito Santiago
Jim Sundberg
Thurman Munson
Johnny Bench
Manny Sanguillen
Roy Campanella

This season, however, both Brian McCann and Kenji Johjima could both enter that list, barring any significant time lost, of course. Interestingly, Ronny Paulino of the Bucs could have also accomplished the feat had Pittsburgh not sent him down in early June.

The scary thing for fans of both the Braves and Mariners is how many times each of those players reached the mark over the remaineder of their career:

Wynegar: 2 times out of 9 seasons
Santiago: 5 times out of 16 seasons
Sundberg: 5 times out of 12 seasons
Munson: 6 times out of 7 seasons (of course, we all know about the seventh season...)
Bench: 7 times out of 13 seasons (was also playing around 20 games per season elsewhere)
Sanguillen: 3 times out of 9 seasons
Campanella: 3 times out of 6 seasons

So, 72 total seasons combined for those seven, and in less than half (31) were they able to keep up the pace they set early in their career.

-- Because you can never say enough good things about Chipper Jones: If he can reach 130 games this season, he will likely have his eighth season of 130 games played with an OPS+ over 130 and over 130 runs created. Only Barry Bonds (nine times) and Alex Rodriguez (eight times entering this season) have accomplished it more since 1995.

-- Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez and the aforementioned Kenji Johjima could be on their way to a third consecutive season not totalling more than 65 walks combined. Considering those three have been in the box for almost 30% of the Mariners plate appearances over the past three seasons, it's easy to see how Seattle has been well below the league average in runs scored.

-- Assuming the Rays don't make a deal for a starting pitcher before the trade deadline and are content with their current stable of young guns, they could become only the fourth team in the past fifty years to have every game started by a pitcher who is under the age of 27.

1968 Oakland Athletics, 82-80 (6th place in AL)
1990 Chicago White Sox, 94-68 (2nd place in AL West)
1999 Minnesota Twins, 63-97 (5th in AL Central)
2003 Detroit Tigers, 43-119 (5th in AL Central)

The '69 Athletics missed the mark by only two games, but the incredible thing is they saw 35 starts from a 23 year old Catfish Hunter, four starts from a 19 year old Vida Blue and eight starts from a 22 year old Rollie Fingers. Also of note were a few other names present on their roster: Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan, Tito Francona, Marcel Lacheman and Ed Sprague (whose son Braves fans will remember with rather unfond memories for Game 2 of the 1992 World Series).

-- There are currently four players in the Majors with an OPS+ of 180 or higher (Lance Berkman, Chipper, Albert Pujols and Milton Bradley). If those four can keep up the pace, it will be only the fourth season in ML history to see four players reach that mark.

1994: Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Jeff Bagwell, Kevin Mitchell, Albert Belle
2000: Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez
1923: Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Rogers Hornsby, Harry Heilmann

Once again goes to show you just how special a season '94 could have been.

That's all for now, maybe I'll post some more stuff later. Also expect this week's Power Rankings to be up at some point.

Random Notes for 7/12

2008-07-12T23:02:00.008-04:00

-- With Greg Maddux's stolen base against the Braves tonight, he's become the oldest pitcher (42 years and 80 days old) in the last fifty years to swipe a bag. The previous oldest was Orlando Hernandez last July, at 41 years and 279 days old. An interesting note is of the ten stolen bases by pitchers over 40 years old since 1958, four of them are by Maddux and three are by Hernandez. The other three were by Jim Kaat, Danny Darwin and Orel Hershiser.

-- With Gregor Blanco currently sporting a .363 OBP and .321 SLG, he's coming close to entering some rare territory. There have been only been only six players since 1995 who have sported an OBP over .350 and SLG under .325 while getting over 400 plate appearances.

Walt Weiss, 1995 - .403/.321
Brett Butler, 1997 - .363/.324
Mark McLemore, 1998 - .369/.317
Rickey Henderson, 2000 - .368/.305
Mark McLemore, 2000 - .353/.316
Desi Relaford, 2000 - .351/.300

The interesting thing is, obviously, none have sported an OPS+ over 90.

-- An interesting "Did You Know?" here: The 2003 Mariners only used five starting pitchers for the entire season. The five? Jaime Moyer, Freddy Garcia, Joel Piniero, Gil Meche and Ryan Franklin. Of course, Piniero and Franklin are teammates this season with the Cardinals and Garcia and Moyer were teammates with the Phillies last season. Also of note, the Phillies and White Sox this season are the current leaders with the least number of starters used with six.

-- On the flipside of that, the '96 Pirates used an incredible 18 different starters, with seven getting ten or more starts. With September call-ups still to come, the Rangers could make a run at that number, as they have already used twelve different starters. To take it a step further, there have been seven teams over the past fifty years who have had nine different pitchers make ten or more starts. The '02 Cardinals were the most recent.

-- The Marlins could become the first team in ML history to see everyone in their starting infield (Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Jorge Cantu) end the season with thirty or more homeruns. The '01 Athletics saw Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez all hit thirty, but no other team has saw more than two accomplish the task. Uggla, Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera came close last season, with Ramirez falling one short. The highest homer mark reached by all four infielders was by the '05 Rangers, who saw Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young and Hank Blalock all hit more than 24 homers.

-- Which teams have wasted the most starts where their pitcher posted a Gamescore of 70 or more? The Jays, Padres, Phillies, Indians and BoSox have all dropped four. And which have made the most out of starts where their pitcher posted a GS less than 50? Not surprising it's been the Rangers (23), Tigers (22) and Phillies (21).

-- Barry Zito, Ubaldo Jimenez and A.J. Burnett each have four starts this season where they have gone five innings or less and thrown over 100 pitches.

One-Run Struggles

2008-07-11T16:38:00.005-04:00

Ask any Braves fan what has been the reason for the lackluster season thus far and almost all will give you the same answer: the team's inability to win close games. And the biggest reason for that? The lack of production with the game on the line, obviously. In fact, the Braves are dead last in effectiveness with RISP late in the game when done by one.

Here's how the Braves, along with the rest of the league has fared with RISP, down by one, in the seventh inning on. The second column represents the percentage of times the team has had a situation such as the one I just described and went on to tie or take the lead during the plate appearance.

Team	%	1-R W%
Baltimore Orioles	34.29	.500
Milwaukee Brewers	33.33	.679
Chicago Cubs	30.30	.500
Pittsburgh Pirates	30.00	.548
St. Louis Cardinals	28.57	.559
Chicago White Sox	28.00	.565
Tampa Bay Rays	27.27	.593
Florida Marlins	27.27	.538
Colorado Rockies	23.68	.484
Detroit Tigers	23.53	.500
San Diego Padres	23.53	.407
Los Angeles Angels	23.26	.567
Cleveland Indians	23.08	.353
Minnesota Twins	21.62	.545
Cincinnati Reds	21.43	.667
Toronto Blue Jays	21.05	.417
New York Yankees	21.05	.607
Arizona Diamondbacks	20.00	.520
Seattle Mariners	20.00	.357
Boston Red Sox	19.23	.448
Oakland Athletics	18.60	.538
San Francisco Giants	18.42	.531
Washington Nationals	17.50	.455
Houston Astros	17.02	.438
New York Mets	16.00	.381
Kansas City Royals	16.00	.480
Philadelphia Phillies	15.91	.452
Texas Rangers	13.04	.621
Los Angeles Dodgers	12.82	.522
Atlanta Braves	12.50	.185

Now, of course there are a number of odd occurrences there, but keep in mind there are a number of other factors that come into play.

Oh, and just to give you a point of reference, overall the league has succeeded 208 times out of 960 total chances, good for a 21.67% clip.

Braves % of Games Reaching Base

2008-07-11T14:15:00.004-04:00

Was tooling around with the Play Index over on Baseball Reference and decided to research who on the Braves had the highest percentage of times on base in games with one or more plate appearances.

Everyday Players

Player	Games	% TOB
Kelly Johnson	83	86.75%
Chipper Jones	80	85.00%
Yunel Escobar	82	84.15%
Brian McCann	86	81.40%
Mark Teixeira	90	77.78%
Jeff Francoeur	87	77.01%
Gregor Blanco	77	76.62%

Bench / Other

Player	Games	% TOB
Mark Kotsay	55	80.00%
Omar Infante	39	71.80%
Matt Diaz	41	63.41%
Greg Norton	50	56.00%
Ruben Gotay	54	38.89%
Martin Prado	20	65.00%
Brandon Jones	16	68.75%
Corky Miller	17	41.18%

Atlanta Braves: State of the Organization, Part III- The Future

2008-07-11T09:38:00.007-04:00

In parts one and two of my state of the organization analysis, I've looked at the remainder of 2008 and looked ahead to 2009. For the final installment, I'm going to take an in-depth look at the Braves farm system. I've taken a couple liberties with how I'm ranking the players in the organization and who qualifies, so that is why you will see players like Brandon Jones and Brent Lillibridge (who may be on the active ML roster, but are doing their fair share of bouncing around) while players like Charlie Morton and Gregor Blanco (who have solidified their place on the ML roster, for this season at least) aren't listed.

I guess a little explanation of my process is called for first. The players I've considered are those who are on the current roster of Richmond, Mississippi, Myrtle Beach or Rome. So, while players like Julio Teheran and Jon Gilmore may be highly touted, they didn't make the final cut because it's just way too hard to real get a feel for someone when they are stuck in Rookie ball. From there, I rated the players one to five, based on their potential and ability to someday contribute to a ML roster. Again, I've taken a bit of a liberty here, not rating any players in Myrtle Beach or Rome a one or two, regardless of how much hype they have surrounding them. I believe it's only fair players who are still twenty or younger like Cody Johnson, Jason Heyward and Gorkys Hernandez aren't placed on the same level as Jordan Schafer or Brandon Jones just yet. Once the players were given their initial rating, I then ranked the players within each rating. Pretty simple stuff.

I've broken up the position players up by sections and the pitchers up by starter/reliever designation, but included the overall ranking beside each player. If anyone wishes to see it, I can post the master list for position players and pitchers as they appeared, #1-50. If anyone wants it a step further, I'll consider doing a #1-100 ranking.

Anyways, here you go.

Catchers

Rank	Player	Age	Overall
(1)	Tyler Flowers	22	9
(2)	Clint Sammons	25	18
(3)	Phillip Britton	23	19
(4)	J.C. Boscan	28	33
(5)	Benji Johnson	21	43
(6)	Javier Dominguez	22	44
(7)	Jose Camarena	24	45
(8)	Ray Serrano	27	46

Infielders

Rank	Player	Age	Overall
(1)	Brent Lillibridge	24	3
(2)	Kala Ka'aihue	23	4
(3)	Freddie Freeman	18	10
(4)	Brandon Hicks	22	13
(5)	Travis Jones	22	14
(6)	Diory Hernandez	24	15
(7)	Scott Thorman	26	16
(8)	Chad Lundahl	23	21
(9)	J.C. Holt	25	22
(10)	Van Pope	24	24
(11)	Ernesto Mejia	22	27
(12)	Barbaro Canizares	28	28
(13)	Eric Campbell	22	29
(14)	Samuel Sime	21	31
(15)	Cole Miles	21	34
(16)	Javier Guzman	26	35
(17)	Derrick Arnold	24	36
(18)	Adam Coe	20	37
(19)	Wes Timmons	28	39
(20)	Greg Creek	25	40
(21)	Michael Fisher	23	42
(22)	Enrique Cruz	26	47
(23)	Paul Bennett	24	48
(24)	Randy Gress	23	49
(25)	Robert Marcial	24	50

Outfielders

Rank	Player	Age	Overall
(1)	Jordan Schafer	21	1
(2)	Brandon Jones	24	2
(3)	Josh Anderson	25	5
(4)	Jason Heyward	18	6
(5)	Cody Johnson	19	7
(6)	Gorkys Hernandez	20	8
(7)	Jon Mark Owings	23	11
(8)	Stephen Shults	21	12
(9)	Carl Loadenthal	26	17
(10)	Willie Cabrera	21	20
(11)	Matt Young	25	23
(12)	Jason Perry	27	25
(13)	Quentin Davis	25	26
(14)	Yohan Silva	23	30
(15)	Concepcion Rodriguez	21	32
(16)	Reid Gorecki	27	38
(17)	C.J. Lee	23	41

Starting Pitchers

Rank	Player	Age	Overall
(1)	Tommy Hanson	21	1
(2)	Todd Redmond	23	6
(3)	Cole Rohrbough	21	7
(4)	Scott Diamond	21	8
(5)	Steve Evarts	20	9
(6)	Francisley Bueno	27	10
(7)	Jonathon Rouwenhorst	28	11
(8)	Jairo Cuevas	24	14
(9)	Jeff Locke	20	17
(10)	James Parr	22	18
(11)	Jose Ortegano	20	21
(12)	Chad Rodgers	20	23
(13)	Erik Cordier	22	24
(14)	Deunte Heath	22	25
(15)	Eric Barrett	21	27
(16)	Anthony Lerew	25	30
(17)	Ryne Reynoso	23	31
(18)	Steven Figueroa	20	34
(19)	Chris Vines	23	35
(20)	Kyle Cofield	21	39
(21)	Jeff Lyman	21	44
(22)	Jerome Gamble	28	49

Relief Pitchers

Rank	Player	Age	Overall
(1)	Kris Medlen	22	2
(2)	Phil Stockman	28	3
(3)	Carlos Sencion	23	4
(4)	Zach Schreiber	26	5
(5)	Brett Butts	22	12
(6)	Nicholas Fellman	22	13
(7)	David Wilson	21	15
(8)	Edgar Osuna	20	16
(9)	Ryan Basner	26	19
(10)	Benino Pruneda	19	20
(11)	Michael Mehlich	20	22
(12)	Michael Nix	25	26
(13)	Bryan Dumesnil	24	28
(14)	Chris Resop	25	29
(15)	Tommy Palica	20	32
(16)	Cory Gearrin	22	33
(17)	Sung Ki Jung	28	36
(18)	Luis Valdez	24	37
(19)	Jeff Ridgway	27	38
(20)	Kevin Gunderson	24	40
(21)	Carlos Rivas	23	41
(22)	Jaye Chapman	21	42
(23)	Brad Nelson	26	43
(24)	Matt DeSalvo	27	45
(25)	Michael Broadway	21	46
(26)	Yeliar Castro	20	47
(27)	Casey Beck	21	48
(28)	Ferdin Tejeda	25	50

Well, there you have it.

Ranking the Rotations

2008-07-11T00:31:00.005-04:00

Now that we've entered July, it's time for things to start getting serious. As the Brewers and Cubs have showed us in the past week, you can only go so far as your rotation allows you, specifically the front-end. Sure, the guys at the back of the rotation are important, but unless you have three horses at the front, to go against the best the other contenders have to offer in head-to-head match-ups, the likelihood of your playing in October aren't going to be great.

Since the wildcard era saw it's first playoff season in 1995, no team that has been more than nine games out of either first place in their division or for the wildcard has made the playoffs. So, with the seven teams out of the way who do not qualify -- Toronto, Kansas City, Cleveland, Seattle, Washington, Houston and San Diego -- I've taken a look at the front three starting pitchers in each of the rotations of the 23 teams who still have a shot at the playoffs. Yeah, some of those teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore) may not have a chance at post-season baseball, but based on the past thirteen seasons, they aren't exactly eliminated from contention just yet.

What I've done is, for each league, I've ranked the qualifying pitchers best to worst. From there, I determined the average rank of the pitchers for each team. And here are the results:

American League

Rank	Team	Pitchers
(1)	Tampa Bay	Shields, Garza, Kazmir
(2)	Boston	Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester
(3)	Los Angeles	Lackey, Weaver, Garland
(4)	Oakland	Blanton, Buchscerer, Eveland
(5)	Chicago	Buerhle, Vazquez, Danks
(6)	New York	Pettite, Mussina, Chamberlain
(7)	Detroit	Verlander, Rogers, Galarraga
(8)	Minnesota	Hernandez, Blackburn, Baker
(9)	Texas	Millwood, Feldman, Harrison
(10)	Baltimore	Guthrie, Cabrera, Burres

National League

Rank	Team	Pitchers
(1)	Chicago	Zambrano, Harden, Dempster
(2)	Arizona	Webb, Haren, Davis
(3)	Milwaukee	Sheets, Sabathia, Parra
(4)	Philadelphia	Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick
(5)	Los Angeles	Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda
(6)	New York	Santana, Maine, Perez
(7)	Atlanta	Hudson, Jurrjens, Reyes
(8)	Cincinnati	Harang, Volquez, Cueto
(9)	San Francisco	Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez
(10)	Florida	Nolasco, Miller, Olsen
(11)	St. Louis	Lohse, Looper, Wellemeyer
(12)	Pittsburgh	Snell, Duke, Malholm
(13)	Colorado	Cook, Jimenez, De la Rosa

So, there you have it.

I may take this a step further in the next few days and apply it to the heard of the lineup.

Until then, I've also got the third installment of my Braves' State of the Organization series still to come.

Power Rankings -- 07/10/08

2008-07-10T18:53:00.003-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	+1	Chicago Cubs	55-36
(2)	+1	Tampa Bay Rays	55-35
(3)	-2	Boston Red Sox	55-39
(4)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	49-43
(5)	+1	Los Angeles Angels	54-37
(6)	+2	Chicago White Sox	53-37
(7)	+2	Minnesota Twins	50-41
(8)	+5	Milwaukee Brewers	50-41
(9)	-4	St. Louis Cardinals	51-41
(10)	-3	Arizona Diamondbacks	45-46
(11)	---	Oakland Athletics	49-42
(12)	-2	Florida Marlins	47-44
(13)	+2	Los Angeles Dodgers	45-46
(14)	---	Detroit Tigers	46-44
(15)	+5	New York Mets	47-44
(16)	-4	New York Yankees	49-42
(17)	+1	Cincinnati Reds	43-49
(18)	-2	Texas Rangers	48-44
(19)	+4	Baltimore Orioles	44-45
(20)	-1	Atlanta Braves	43-49
(21)	+1	Pittsburgh Pirates	42-48
(22)	-5	Cleveland Indians	37-53
(23)	+2	San Francisco Giants	39-52
(24)	---	Toronto Blue Jays	44-47
(25)	-4	Houston Astros	42-50
(26)	---	San Diego Padres	36-56
(27)	---	Kansas City Royals	40-52
(28)	---	Colorado Rockies	39-53
(29)	+1	Seattle Mariners	36-55
(30)	-1	Washington Nationals	35-57

Line Drive Percentage & BABIP

2008-07-06T14:41:00.004-04:00

It's been a while since I've done any in-depth statistical analysis for the website, so I thought it would be a nice time to take us back to our roots.

What I've taken a look at is -- as the title says -- line drive percentage and batting average on balls in play. Line drive percentage is just that, the percentage of balls hit in play that are line drives. Batting average on balls in play is similar, only it factors out things such as strikeouts and homeruns, and focuses on the "luck" involved with getting a basehit. Line drive percentage can also be used to estimate what a players BABIP should be by adding .12 to the percentage. The average for each is around .300, ±5 percentage points. While faster players will likely gain a few extra basehits on groundballs over the course of a season and stronger players will gain a couple homers on flyballs, for the most part, these two stats are very good indicators of how a player's season is truly going. They also give a much deeper grasp for how a player's batting average factors into their actual production.

So, without any further delay, let's go to the research.

Player	BA	BABIP	LD%	eBABIP
McCann	.298	.303	.164	.284
Teixeira	.272	.287	.192	.312
Johnson	.276	.317	.176	.296
Escobar	.289	.317	.153	.273
C. Jones	.385	.395	.229	.349
Diaz	.250	.313	.158	.278
B. Jones	.278	.378	.132	.252
Kotsay	.277	.290	.204	.324
Blanco	.271	.339	.203	.323
Francoeur	.234	.263	.168	.288
Infante	.275	.305	.194	.314
Norton	.217	.263	.220	.340
Gotay	.211	.277	.196	.316
Lillibridge	.154	.235	.118	.238
Anderson	.318	.333	.095	.215
Miller	.100	.103	.200	.320
Prado	.250	.262	.071	.191
eBABIP = estimated BABIP = LD% + .120

And from that set of data, we can go in a number of different directions, I'll just choose a couple of them: first I'll look at the difference in line drive percentage and actual BABIP, and then I'll look at some adjusted stats based on eBABIP.

First up, the relationship between line drive percentage and BABIP. The bigger the difference between the two, the more likely that a player is finding holes with his liners; the lower, chances are the player us just hitting the ball right into the teeth of the defense. Sooner or later, these numbers are going to start gravitating towards a player's career average. Because of that, I've also included each player's career line drive percentage into the following table.

Player	BABIP	LD%	Career LD%	Diff.
B. Jones	.378	.132	---	.246
Anderson	.333	.095	---	.238
Prado	.262	.071	.121	.191
C. Jones	.395	.229	.220	.166
Escobar	.317	.153	.177	.164
Diaz	.313	.158	.190	.155
Johnson	.317	.176	.166	.141
McCann	.303	.164	.181	.139
Blanco	.339	.203	---	.136
Lillibridge	.235	.118	---	.117
Infante	.305	.194	.191	.111
Francoeur	.263	.168	.174	.095
Teixeira	.287	.192	.208	.095
Kotsay	.290	.204	.223	.086
Gotay	.277	.196	.183	.081
Norton	.263	.220	.225	.043
Miller	.103	.200	.220	-.097

What do we get from this table? Well, obviously the two names at the top of the list aren't going to be able to keep their BABIP that high. And players like Prado, Escobar and McCann who are all well below their career LD% should all expect to see their numbers take a jump up over the rest of the season. On the flipside, Chipper and Kage should see a few of those liners start to find leather over the next couple months.

The final thing I did with this data set was run some adjusted numbers on hits, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Of course, the only number that was really calculated from the above data was a new number of hits. Using each player's current BABIP (by the way, for those who don't know it, the formula can be found here), I recalculated the formula using the eBABIP in it's place and a variable for the number of hits. This gave me an adjusted number of hits based on the player's actual batting average on balls in play and their estimated BABIP based on the line drive percentage predictor. Then, using this new number of hits, I recalculated batting average and using isoOBP (BA minus OBP) and isoSLG (BA minus SLG) I also calculated new values for OBP and SLG.

And here are those:

Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
C. Jones	.348	.440	.586	1.026	143
Teixeira	.291	.399	.503	.902	126
McCann	.281	.351	.525	.876	122
Infante	.294	.358	.432	.790	110
Norton	.277	.372	.415	.787	110
Kotsay	.304	.350	.435	.785	110
Johnson	.259	.335	.430	.765	107
Francoeur	.254	.307	.394	.701	98
Gotay	.239	.337	.352	.689	96
Escobar	.251	.324	.351	.675	94
Blanco	.253	.354	.318	.672	94
Miller	.250	.332	.325	.657	92
Prado	.182	.278	.341	.619	86
Anderson	.227	.284	.318	.602	84
B. Jones	.185	.223	.370	.593	83
Diaz	.227	.247	.288	.535	75
Lillibridge	.154	.154	.231	.385	54

There you have it.

I found all this to be quite interesting, hopefully you feel the same.

A Quick Wallpaper I Threw Together

2008-07-03T21:34:00.001-04:00

Sometimes, all you need is simplicity.

Atlanta Braves: State of the Organization, Part II - Looking Ahead to 2009

2008-07-01T17:43:00.004-04:00

Next up in our look at the Braves, I've decided to take a look at the worst-case scenario for what the 40-man roster could look like ending this season and heading into next. I've taken a couple liberties, such as assuming they won't be able to resign Mark Teixiera and Tom Glavine's career likely being over following this season. I've also taken Smoltz's word in saying he would be returning for the 2009 season. All other moves and holes were done completely within the organization, since no one really knows what could happen when the free agent market opens up. So, essentially what we have here is a 40-man roster made up of players currently under the Braves control.

Pitchers
Manny Acosta	RHP
Blaine Boyer	RHP
Francisley Bueno	LHP
Jairo Cuevas	RHP
Mike Gonzalez	LHP
Tommy Hanson	RHP
Tim Hudson	RHP
Chuck James	LHP
Jair Jurrjens	RHP
Charlie Morton	RHP
Peter Moylan	RHP
Michael Nix	RHP
Will Ohman	LHP
Jo-Jo Reyes	LHP
Jeff Ridgway	LHP
Jonathon Rouwenhorst	LHP
Zach Schreiber	RHP
John Smoltz	RHP
Rafael Soriano	RHP
Phil Stockman	RHP

Notes: Not overly different from what the Braves currently have on the 40-man roster, the main difference, of course, being the lack of Tom Glavine. There are a few names present who likely won't be with the team next season (James, Ridgway) but for the sake of not being able to predict the future, I've included them anyways.

Catchers

J.C. Boscan

Brian McCann

Clint Sammons

Notes: Like with the pitching staff, there isn't anything really out of place here, although Boscan could be replaced by any number of players. He's the highest in the organzation, but with Sammons already being an offensive blackhole, someone like Tyler Flowers may stand a better shot since he impressed in spring training this season, and already has nine homers at Myrtle Beach.

Infielders

Yunel Escobar

Diory Hernandez

Kelly Johnson

Kala Kaaihue

Chipper Jones

Brent Lillibridge

Martin Prado

Scott Thorman

Wes Timmons

Notes: Scott Thorman is in a very similar situation to James, he isn't likely to be with the club even through the end of 2008, but because of the uncertainty of the Teixeira situation, I've included him anyways. That is also why I've included Kaaihue, who probably won't be on the 40-man roster until 2010.

Outfielders

Josh Anderson

Gregor Blanco

Matt Diaz

Jeff Francoeur

Brandon Jones

Mark Jurich

Jason Perry

Jordan Schafer

Notes: Again, no real surprises here. Jordan Schafer is likely going to make the jump and be the everyday CF, and depending on how the remainder of '08 goes, the same will likely hold true for Brandon Jones in left. Anderson or Blanco could end up gone, as there's no real reason for both to be with the club considering they bring the exact same skill set, especially with Gorkys Hernandez on the horizon. Jason Perry looks like he could be one of those career AAAA players, but with the lack of offensive firepower currently at Mississippi and Richmond, he could crack the roster.

Next up will be a look a little further into the future and how the Braves current farm system rounds up. Expect that sometime in the next few days.

Atlanta Braves: State of the Organization, Part I - Remainder of 2008

2008-06-30T18:57:00.005-04:00

Here we are, the end of June. And even with all the injuries endured, the Braves still only stand four games back from the NL East leading Phillies. Even more impressive than where they currently stand is their remarkable 46-37 Pythagorean won-loss record, which is six games better than their actual 40-43 mark.

The story of the season thus far, aside from the injuries -- which I'll get to shortly -- has been the unbelievable 4-21 record the Braves have posted in one-run games. When you look at the home split for that number, a very pedestrian 4-5, it really makes you wonder what has gone wrong on the road to leave the Braves with an 0-16 mark. Taking the one-run losses completely out of the equation, you see Atlanta has a remarkable 36-22 record, and a much better 12-13 clip on the road.

So, what has gone so wrong the Braves can't get it done in one-run games? Can't blame the bullpen, which has posted a remarkable 114 ERA+ based on the rest of the league's bullpen work. You can't even really blame a lack of quality performances in clutch situations, as Braves pitchers have held opposing hitters to a 105 OPS+ in high leverage sitautions; not excellent, but not necessarily damning either, especially when you see that same number drop to 96 in innings seven through nine. Then it must be the offense, right? Well, in high leverage situations, the Braves bats are right at the league average in OPS, garnering them an OPS+ of 99. In late and close situations, they are even slightly better, putting up a 102 OPS+. Must be their late inning heroics which have been falling short then, right? Not quite, they've posted a 104 OPS+ in the last three innings. And the mystery continues...

One of the biggest factors could be the inconsistency of the Braves lineup. Not the actual pieces, but the names written into it. As of the Braves 83rd game on Sunday, Bobby Cox has written out forty different combinations of the eight position players in their lineup. Granted, that number isn't mind-blowing, a lot of teams have already used over forty different combinations, but the Braves problem has been the lack of depth to use so many different lineups. Given the lengthy injuries to Chipper Jones, Mark Kotsay, Matt Diaz, along with time missed by Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, Cox hasn't had the type of bench talent needed to fill those holes. Sure, Gregor Blanco has proven he's capable of being a ML role player, Omar Infante and Ruben Gotay are well established as being the same and Greg Norton may be a serviceable bat off the bench for most teams, but those four names have already accounted for over 100 games started for the Braves. Losing the offense by having one of those bats in the lineup is bad enough, but considering the Braves have had at least two of those names written in for almost every game, it's easy to see why their offense is on pace to only score 730 runs for the season. And that isn't even factoring in the offensive black-hole that is Corky Miller when he gets a spot start to rest Brian McCann. We all had our doubts entering the season about the depth if something were to happen to key members of the Braves offense, but I don't think any of us anticipated this much missed time from the main pieces.

One thing the offense has to look forward to is Mark Teixeira's offensive explosion over the past month. After posting OPS numbers just below .800 for the first two months of the season, in June he has run up a heavy 1.041 OPS. But the question remains: was it worth it to mortgage such a huge piece of the future last July to acquire him? In his first 135 games in Atlanta, he's posted a line of .293/.389/.544 good for a .933 OPS, 33 homers, 118 RBI and 85 runs scored. Certainly far from horrible numbers. However (and you know there is always an however) over that same timespan, the Braves have gone 68-70. While you can't blame that on Teixeira, the Braves are in the same place -- below .500 and out of first place -- they were prior to the deal being made.

The question has to be asked: Was it worth it? Teixeira gave the Braves all the potential to contend over the past eleven months, even to the point of having numerous highly-respected analysts (Rosenthal, Gammons) picking the Braves to be World Series contenders in '08. But if he walks away to greener pastures -- and you know exactly what type of green I'm talking about -- in New York or Boston after this season, where does that leave the state of the Braves offense? We've already witnessed the turmoil that is trying to piece together a respectable lineup on a daily basis made up greatly of career bench players, what happens if one of the game's premiere 1B goes elsewhere? More on that in the next entry.

Now, how about the pitching staff? As much as we all hate to see it, the careers of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine could be over. Glavine may return for the stretch run this season, but we know that Smoltz is gone for the season and if I had to bet on it, I wouldn't say we see either back in 2009. That isn't to say the starting rotation isn't in good shape, however. There is always Tim Hudson, who has been the Braves one true rock over the past two seasons; and the young trio of Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and the re-emergence of Jo-Jo Reyes have proven to be a very bright spot for the Braves future. Jorge Campillo has also proven to be very formidable, however is often the case with spot-starters who emerge out of nowhere (re: Jorge Sosa, Pete Smith, Terry Mulholland, Damian Moss) they are pitching on borrowed time. He could develop into something worthwhile, but when you are approaching thirty and the Mariners saw fit to give up on you, you just gotta ride it out while it lasts.

What concerns me most is the over-dependence on the bullpen so far. The Braves currently have two pitchers (Blaine Boyer and Will Ohman) who have appeared in over half of the games so far, two which are just below that number (Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett) and one more (Royce Ring) who has also made over thirty appearances. The only other NL team which has accomplished the same has been the Nationals, who have made 258 pitching chances this season, compared to the Braves making 264. If the Braves do manage to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, come August and September, it is going to be very interesting to see how those arms have held up given the usage Cox has already gotten out of them.

So, what is left for this club to do down the stretch? Well, the club has already stated they are going to stick with the arms they have for the starting rotation. Fair enough, so far the young guns seem more than capable. But what of the offensive needs? The Braves could definitely use a consistent bat in left, but what are they going to use as the tradebait? They could likely land someone like Raul Ibanez before the deadline, but is it worth giving up a prospect for a 36 year old bat that is going to provide two months of service? It's not quite the same as the Teixeira/Saltalamacchia debate from last year, but is it really worth giving up a piece for the future to get someone like Ibanez when Brandon Jones is already a part of the team? The team is already looking at getting Mark Kotsay's bat back within the next few weeks, which will provide a definite power boost over Gregor Blanco, which will essentially be the same acquiring another bat. What about the bullpen? Well, getting Mike Gonzalez back should have a positive effect on the number of pitchers Cox has to use, as it gets rid of the closer-by-committee that has been in place for most of the season. Phil Stockman also provides a fresh arm down in Richmond if someone's arm does fall off before another can be acquired. And while neither is currently on the 40-man roster, Francisley Bueno and Jorge Julio are both available at Richmond, as well. So theoretically, the Braves have enough pieces they could keep it completely within the organization for the rest of the season, they just have to hope none of the current big names go down with injury before August and September.

Teams Stuck on the Fence

2008-06-28T22:41:00.003-04:00

Of course, while the teams I listed are most likely to sell, others will be looking to buy -- Rays, White Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, as well as a few others -- there are also a few teams who are sort of stuck in between and will have to wait a few weeks to see where they stand.

Now, don't get me wrong, there is still a whole lot of baseball left to be played, and even a number of the teams I listed as sellers aren't completely out of it -- look no further than the Mets, who stood a mere three games out of the NL East lead entering today's action. Like I said, however, those teams would be best suited to sell, regardless of what their short-term outlook may be.

Anyways, onto the teams who have some open-ended questions left before they decide which end of the spectrum they lie on.

Cleveland Indians

With the AL Central still being anyone's to win, even with the Indians being six games under .500, they are only 7.5 games back. Their biggest problem lies in aces C.C. Sabathia, however. Sabathia is a free agent at year's end and with the usual list of suitors already showing interest, which means Cleveland likely won't have the money to compete in that type of market. The Indians have already lost Jake Westbrook for the season, but do have Fausto Carmona set to return soon. Their offense seems set, even with the struggles of and injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, if they can tread water until their return, they can still make a run.

Detroit Tigers

Despite the 23-32 start the Tigers got off to, they have gone 16-8 so far this month, and find themselves very much in the thick of things in the AL Central. The season-ending injury to Jeremy Bonderman could end up being their downfall, however. The silver lining for their pitching staff, however, is the recent return of both Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya. Their offense needs to keep hitting, because if the big bats can't start producing at a 5+ runs/game pace like everyone expected, it won't matter what their pitching does. They are also a team which is strapped for young talent right now because of the king's ransom they sent to Florida in the Willis/Cabrera deal, so they could be hard-pressed to find potential prospects to piece together to make a run at the deadline.

Oakland Athletics

The Athletics remain key contenders for both the AL West or the AL Wildcard, despite many insider's beliefs they are still likely to deal aces Rich Harden and Joe Blanton before the deadline. If Oakland does go that route, it's highly doubtful they would have the pitching behind Justin Duchscherer, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland to continue making a run at the post-season. Not to mention, it would be very much against Billy Beane's character to go out and acquire a big-name free agent-to-be at the trade deadline.

New York Yankees

To hear the Steinbrenners say it, the Yankees are never out of contention, no matter where they may be in the standings. I wouldn't be so sure to say they have a chance in the AL East with Boston and Tampa Bay running away with the division, but they do remain the front runners in the Wildcard race with surprises in Oakland and Minnesota being their main contention. As we all know, price is never a problem in New York, so they can make a run at any big name they won't. The main thing with the Yanks is their reliance on older talent right now and how much it is bringing their club down, but I've discussed that to no end. They could stand to drop a few dollars, however, if they intend on making hard runs at Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has managed to do a whole lot with very little so far this season and, as usual, it's just a testament to their success in trading and developing. They do have a few holes they need to feel though. They could stand to add a bat capable of hitting 15 or so homers between now and the end of the season and another veteran starter to pair with Livan Hernandez so their bullpen doesn't get too stressed down the stretch. It goes against their model to acquire any big names, so it isn't likely they will make a play on any, but they definitely have the young depth to go after a few key role players.

Atlanta Braves

I already have a full entry planned on the state of the Braves, but the long and short of it is the team needs depth: both on the bench and in the bullpen. The club has already said they are set with starting pitchers, namely the youngters Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes, so don't expect them to go after Greg Maddux if the Padres make him available. They are going to need a quality bat to take at least some of the strain off Brandon Jones in left, another reliable arm for the bullpen -- which has already seem five relievers make over thirty appearances -- and a bat or two for the bench would be nice. But, all of this will be tackled very soon with a Braves-centric entry.

Florida Marlins

The NL East is a lot like the AL Central right now, with a number of teams still having a very good shot at taking the division, and the Marlins perfectly mirror the situation the Twins are in. Only, the Marlins make their living with big bats whereas the Twins do their thing with pitching and timely hitting. The Marlins, of course, don't have any space financially to pick up any type of contract over a couple million, so any deal they strike is going to have to favor their budget. It isn't going to be easy for them to acquire a veteran starter in a situation like that, so they could end up in a situation where they start to fade before the deadline even arrives.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are surprisingly in a good situation to make a run at this point, the only real thing they need right now is a starter to compliment Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan in the rotation. The problem they could run into is their need to conserve money in order to pay the type of money Prince Fielder is going to command come season's end. It all depends on where they stand in the coming weeks. If they can keep pace with the Cardinals, they will most likely start looking for an arm; if not, they could dump a few contracts.

As I said, expect the next entry to be a state of the organization report on the Braves. May be tomorrow evening or sometime Monday afternoon, but I'll have it up soon.

NL Sellers & Who's Available

2008-06-28T21:53:00.005-04:00

As the second part of my look at who is selling this trade season, let's take a look at the teams in the National League who would be best suited dumping some players for some younger talent.

New York Mets

Endy Chavez, OF - $1.8M, FA after '09
Marlon Anderson, IF/LF - $1.05M, FA after '09
Luis Castillo, 2B - $6M, FA after '11
Damion Easley, IF - $0.95M, Fa after '08
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP - $3.6M, FA after '09
Aaron Heilman, RHP - $1.2M, arbitration eligible

Maybe

Carlos Delgado, 1B - $16M, FA after '09, team option for '09
Billy Wagner, LHP - $10.5M, FA after '10, team option for '10, full no-trade clause
Oliver Perez, LHP - $5M, FA after '08

Washington Nationals

Paul Lo Duca, C - $5M, FA after '08
Aaron Boone, 1B - $1M, FA after '08
Ronnie Belliard, IF - $1.6M, FA after '09
Odalis Perez, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08
Felipe Lopez, IF - $4.9M, FA after '08
Cristian Guzman, SS - $4.2M, FA after '08

Maybe

Chad Cordero, RHP - $6.2M, arbitration eligible

Houston Astros

Geoff Blum, IF - $1.1M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Mark Loretta, 2B- $2.75M, FA after '08
Darin Erstad, 1B/OF - $1M, FA after '08
Ty Wiggington, IF - $4.35M, FA after '08
Brian Moehler, RHP - $0.5M, FA after '08
Doug Brocail, RHP - $2.5M, FA after '08, club option for '09

Pittsburgh Pirates

Jason Bay, OF - $5.75M, FA after '09
Jason Michaels, OF - $4.25M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Xavier Nady, OF - $3.35M, arbitration eligible
Damaso Marte, LHP - $4.7M, FA after '08, club option for '09

Cincinnati Reds

David Ross, C - $2.525M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Alex Gonzalez, SS - $4.625M, FA after '09, mutual option for '10
Corey Patterson, OF - $3M, FA after '08
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP - $3M, FA after '08
Josh Fogg, RHP - $1M, FA after '08
David Weathers, RHP - $2.75M, FA after '08

Maybe

Bronson Arroyo, RHP - $3.95M, FA after '10, club option for '11
Ken Griffey Jr., RF - $12.5M, club option for '09
Adam Dunn, LF - $13M, FA after '08, limited trade clause

San Francisco Giants

Randy Winn, OF - $8M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Ray Durham, 2B - $7.5M, FA after '08
Rich Aurilia, 1B - $4.5M, FA after '08

San Diego Padres

Michael Barrett, C - $3.5M, FA after '08
Shawn Estes, LHP - $0.55M, FA after '08
Tony Clark, 1B - $0.9M, FA after '08

Maybe

Greg Maddux, RHP - $10M, FA after '08, no-trade protection
Brian Giles, OF - $9M, team option for '09, limited no-trade clause
Randy Wolf, LHP - $4.75M, FA after '08
Dave Roberts, OF - $6.5M, FA after '09

Colorado Rockies

Scott Podsednik, OF - $0.75M, FA after '08
Matt Herges, RHP - $2.5M, club option for '09
Brian Fuentes, LHP - $5.05M, FA after '08
Glendon Rusch, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08

Power Rankings - 06/26/08

2008-06-26T22:19:00.004-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Boston Red Sox	49-32
(2)	---	Chicago Cubs	49-29
(3)	+3	Tampa Bay Rays	46-31
(4)	-1	Philadelphia Phillies	43-36
(5)	+3	St. Louis Cardinals	45-34
(6)	-1	Los Angeles Angels	48-31
(7)	-3	Arizona Diamondbacks	40-39
(8)	+2	Chicago White Sox	42-35
(9)	+2	Minnesota Twins	42-36
(10)	-3	Florida Marlins	40-37
(11)	-2	Oakland Athletics	42-35
(12)	---	New York Yankees	42-36
(13)	+4	Milwaukee Brewers	43-35
(14)	+5	Detroit Tigers	37-40
(15)	+3	Los Angeles Dodgers	36-41
(16)	-1	Texas Rangers	40-39
(17)	+4	Cleveland Indians	35-43
(18)	-5	Cincinnati Reds	36-43
(19)	-5	Atlanta Braves	39-41
(20)	---	New York Mets	38-39
(21)	-5	Houston Astros	36-42
(22)	+1	Pittsburgh Pirates	37-41
(23)	+3	Baltimore Orioles	39-37
(24)	-2	Toronto Blue Jays	37-42
(25)	---	San Francisco Giants	34-44
(26)	-2	San Diego Padres	32-47
(27)	+1	Kansas City Royals	36-43
(28)	+1	Colorado Rockies	32-47
(29)	-2	Washington Nationals	31-49
(30)	---	Seattle Mariners	28-50

AL Sellers & Who's Available

2008-06-26T20:20:00.001-04:00

With the trade deadline a little over a month away, I've decided to take a look at the teams which are ready to call it a season and start dealing away some unneeded pieces in hopes of stocking up for the future.

First up, the American League.

Right now, the teams which seem to be packing it up and looking forward to next season are Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle and Texas, so let's take a look at their expendable pieces, along with the players who may be available for the right price.

Baltimore Orioles

Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF - $8M, FA after '09
Kevin Millar, 1B - $2.75M, FA after '08
Brian Roberts, 2B - $6.3M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Jay Payton, OF - $5M, FA after '08
Chad Bradford, RHP - $3.5M, FA after '09
Jaime Walker, LHP - $4.5M, FA after '09

Maybe:

Mevlin Mora, 3B - $7.8M, FA after '09, full no-trade clause
Ramon Hernandez, C - $7.5M, FA after '09 with club option for '10

Toronto Blue Jays

Lyle Overbay, 1B - $5.8M, FA after '10
Matt Stairs, OF - $2.25M, FA after '09
Brad Wilkerson, OF - $3M, FA after '08, Seattle pays majority
Kevin Mench, OF - $0.6M, FA after '08

Maybe:

A.J. Burnett, RHP - $12M, FA after '10, player option after '08, limited no-trade clause
Shannon Stewart, OF - $1.5M, FA after '08, currently injured

Kansas City Royals

Mark Grudzielanek - 2B, $4.5M, FA after '08
Ron Mahay, LHP - $4M, FA after '09
Joel Peralta, RHP - $0.45M, FA after '08

Seattle Mariners

Richie Sexson, 1B - $14M, FA after '08
Raul Ibanez, OF - $5.5M, FA after '08
Jose Vidro, 1B - $8.5M, FA after '08, limited no-trade clause
Miguel Cairo, 1B/2B - $0.85M, FA after '08
Jarrod Washburn, LHP - $9.85M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Willie Bloomquist, IF/OF - $0.95M, FA after '08
Miguel Batista, RHP - $9M, FA after '09
Arthur Rhodes, LHP - $0.38M, FA after '08

Maybe

Erik Bedard, LHP - $7M, arbitration elgible
Ichiro Suzuki, OF - $17M, FA after '12, limited no-trade clause
Adrian Beltre, 3B - $12M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause

Texas Rangers

Eddie Guardado, LHP - $2M, FA after '08
Marlon Byrd, OF - $1.8M, FA after '08
Milton Bradley, OF - $5.25M, FA after '08
Jason Jennings, RHP - $4M, FA after '08
Frank Catalanotto, OF/2B - $4M, FA after '09, club option for '10

Maybe

Kevin Millwood, RHP - $8.5M, FA after '10, limited no-trade clause
Vicente Padilla, RHP - $11M, FA after '09, club option for '10

National League coming soon, with a master list to follow shortly thereafter.

It All Comes Down To This...

2008-06-22T22:11:00.003-04:00

World Series Best-Fit

2008-06-22T16:52:00.003-04:00

Once again, my desire to aimlessly research the useless and mundane has taken over.

This subject this time around is trying to predict the World Series favorite for the 2008 season based on the tendencies of the past thirteen World Series champs -- or those which have won it all during the Wildcard era.

And, yes, I completely realize that the majority of the time, the Series winner ends up being a team that has all the right pieces already in place and gets hot at the right time, but what does it hurt to start taking an early look at who those teams could be?

So, which stats have I taken a look at?

OPS+ and ERA+: Two easy choices. You can't be one of the best teams in the Majors without being at or around the top in pitching and offense.

Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Same mindset as above, only with factoring the luck side of things into the equation.

High-Leverage Batting OPS: Because being successful in clutch situations is the name of the game when it comes to getting things done in September and October. Pitching may win championships, but timely hitting trumps it everytime.

Starting Pitchers Innings Per Start: A team is only as good as it's starting pitching allows it to be. If the starters are getting knocked out of the game early, not only does that put a great deal of pressute on the offense to perform, but it can kill a bullpen in a playoff series.

Starting Pitchers Hits+Walks Per Innings: Starters can work deep into the game, but it doesn't really mean much unless they are being effective in doing so.

Bullpen Strikeouts Per 9 Innings: Much like with starters being able to work deep into the game, the bullpen has to be able to come in and take over control of the game.

Now that we've narrowed the stats down, how did I come about the teams and how they are determined?

Well, I first started by limiting the scope to teams that were currently within striking distance of a playoff spot -- meaning they were within six games of either their division leader or the wildcard leader in their respective league. This cut down the number to sixteen teams: Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, both Chicago teams, Florida, both Los Angeles teams, Milwaukee, Minnesota, both New York teams, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

From there, I cut that list down to the seven teams which fit within the range of the above categories determined by the research on the previous thirteen WS champs. If a team's stats fell below any of those thirteen teams in any of the categories, they were eliminated from the short list. So, that left me with the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Phillies, Cubs and Cardinals.

And, finally, I took those final seven teams and compared their numbers to the average for the World Series champs for the Wildcard era. I simply divided the team's stats by the average for the champions and got a percentage. Then I got an average on those seven percentages.

The best fit team?

As surprising as it may be, at this point in the season, it's the Chicago White Sox.

Here's how the averages ended up:

Chicago White Sox - 105.16%
Chicago Cubs - 104.41%
Boston Red Sox - 102.03%
Philadelphia Phillies - 100.81%
Tampa Bay Rays - 98.67%
St. Louis Cardinals - 96.09%

Moving Forward & Falling Behind

2008-06-19T20:24:00.000-04:00

As a bit of an extension of the previous article, I've decided to focus on six teams and look at the direction their franchise is headed. Like the title says, some are moving forward, while some are falling behind. Here's a deeper look at each.

Moving Forward

Minnesota Twins: It's amazing how year-after-year the Twins are able to produce a list of players who are essentially no-namers in the baseball big picture, yet somehow manager to at least remain competitive in an AL Central which can get extremely competitive down the stretch. Sure, there are a few superstars left in town -- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan -- but how many casual fans are familiar with the names Jason Kubel, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker? It's amazing how a pitching staff that has been without it's young phenom (Francisco Liriano) for two years now and is relying on Livan Hernandez to anchor the rotation is anywhere near the .500 mark. But they continue to fight on in Minnesota. Even with an offense that ranks deadlast in the Majors in power, players like Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and Alexi Castilla around, the club is going to have no problems looking ahead to the years to come. Only stopgap starters Mike Lamb and Adam Everett are over 30, with all the key pieces being 27 or younger (Mauer, Morneau, Young, Gomez, Kubel, Castilla, Denard Span). Factor in five young starting pitchers currently in the bigs -- Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey -- and it's easy to see how this Twins team could turn into something special. Sure, they may not get the attention and coverage the Rays have over the past season-plus, but all the pieces are there for them to make the jump very soon.

Florida Marlins: Much like the Twins, the Marlins are also veterans to the trade-develop-win game. Even with sending the last two pieces of their previous World Series championship team to Detroit in the offseason, the Marlins are currently six games over .500, and certainly in contention for the NL East crown, which looks to be a two-team race at this point. And, still, the Marlins have five of the best, young power bats the game has to offer in their lineup on a daily basis -- Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross. And to add to those names, they also currently have Dallas McPherson (who, despite never truly breaking out with the Angles, is only 27 and still has a career isoSLG over .200 and an OPS+ of 96 in almost 400 career plate appearances), outfielders Jai Miller and Brett Carroll (both of which bring speed, pop and a good eye) all to go along with 21 year old uber-prospect Cameron Maybin. Throw in players like Josh Willingham and Jorge Cantu, who are still very serviceable at the ML-level, and you have an offense rich with under-30 depth. Their pitching staff may not have the big names of the offense, but that's not to say there isn't young talent to be seen. We all know how good Andrew Miller can be, it's just a matter of growing into that ability. And for once, troubled lefty Scott Olsen seems to have finally pulled it all together. Pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Rick VandenHurk (despite his many struggles, he's still only 23) aren't to be forgotten either. With those starters turning the game over to Taylor Tankersley, Logan Kensing, renyel Pinto and Kevin Gregg, other offenses can be expected to struggle.

Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team that has taken a much different approach than the Marlins or Twins. While those two teams have traded proven stars for a wealth of young talent over the years, the Reds have acquired all their talent via great scouting. While Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Joey Votto were early round selections in the draft, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger, Aaron Harang and Jared Burton were all acquired for almost nothing. The only player out of their youth movement which cost them a household name was Edinson Volquez, which may have left the Reds without Josh Hamilton, but also brought them talented reliever Danny Herrera. There aren't many people who expect this team to win now, honestly, they are at least a season away from making a move in the NL Central, but with the core of young talent present, there isn't any reason to doubt they will be contenders for years to come. Even the veteran players the Reds currently have -- Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg, Javier Valentin, Jerry Hairston, Andy Phillips, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers and Josh Fogg -- could go a long way at the trade deadline in suring up the club's minor league system and adding a lot of depth to a team that already has all the talent you could want. With Phillips, Bruce and Votto leading the offense and a potential rotation of Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey and Daryl Thompson, this team is poised to do some serious damage. Even if Dusty Baker remains their manager.

Falling Behind

New York Mets: The Mets are nothing short of an absolute mess. They have no idea where they are headed, they've mortgaged off their future in a series of moves which haven't proven as beneficial as hoped and their front office looks completely lost. Willie Randolph ended up being the fall guy for a team that was so horribly put together, it's no wonder the end result has been the current disaster. Even with the cornerstones of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran all performing as expected and the Brian Schneider/Ryan Church trade looking to be a success, the Mets lack of young, talented depth is what has ultimately been their downfall. When you are trying to win a division, having the names like Marlon Anderson, Fernando Tatis, Trot Nixon, Damion Easley, Brady Clark and Abraham Nunez as bench players probably isn't the best idea. It's nice to have a few key veterans here and there, but when your average team age is over 30, that's not the way you want to go. Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Brian Bannister, Mike Jacobs, Jae Weong Seo, Jeff Keppinger, Xavier Nady, Victor Diaz, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber and Dan Wheeler are just a handful of the players the Mets have shipped away for stopgap solutions in hopes of winning a division title. Sure, the Santana trade ended up costing the Mets a lot less than anyone originally expected (with the names Ellsbury, Cano and others being floated around) but in it, the Mets lost the last two of the last big-name prospects they had. The one remaining saving grace, outfielder Fernando Martinez, isn't even twenty yet, and is probably still twelve months away from the Majors. Essentially everyone else on their MiL ballclubs are nothing more than your 28-and-over roster fillers. Their pitching staff is even worse. Sure, Santana is locked up for a few years, but outside of John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, there is no one on the horizon to make Mets fans even the slightest bit excited. At least there's the possibility of players like Oliver Perez, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis bringing at least some fringe prospects which could add a little bit of depth.

Seattle Mariners: The only team that could be more a trainwreck than the Mets. There's King Felix, and well, not much else. Even though both are now in their thirties and seemingly on the back end of their careers, Ichiro and Johjima aren't likely to go anywhere because of the Japanese connection with Nintendo, who owns the team. And then there are Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who have been absolute busts and are costing the team more than the entire payroll of the Marlins. And then there is Erik Bedard, who hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as the M's had hoped, and cost them one of the club's biggest prospects of the past decade in Adam Jones, closer-in-waiting George Sherrill and top five prospect, pitcher Chris Tillman. With Jones out of the picture, there isn't an ample supply of young talent to go around. Sure, there are power-hitting youngsters like Wladimir Balentien, but both have struggled in the limited time they have seen this season. That's not to say both are going to be busts, but with Ichiro's move back to right and Johjima and Sexson taking up Clement's positions, it doesn't seem like the organization is in a rush to get them to the Majors. Two players who could certainly help in bolstering the depth down on the farm are Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro, both of which are over thirty and still capable of helping out a contender down the stretch. The future of the pitching staff is what should be the biggest cause for concern -- with Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn being key pieces to the starting rotation -- and closer J.J. Putz seeing his ERA+ drop down to 76. There is at least some hope with relievers Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who have been lights out, but again, there isn't much else available on the horizon. With GM Bill Bavasi finally being shown the door, and manager John McLaren also being a mercy kill, maybe there is some hope for the future, but it isn't gonna be an easy or short path.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are another team that is very old and lacking in young depth. Only Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are starters under 30 years old. And of those who are over 30, none are young enough to still be a key contributor somewhere. With players like Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs all taking up trips to the plate, obviously there isn't much room to even fit in youth in, even if they had it. Even with Adam Lind and Curtis Thigpen ready and available, they are still having to fight to crack the lineup on a team which currently sits in last place in the competitive AL East. The starting pitching actually shows a little promise, with young arms in Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch, all of which are 26 or younger. The problem with the rest of the rotation is A.J. Burnett can't keep himself healthy and no one really knows how much longer Roy Halladay will be able to hold up after logging over 1500 innings before his 30th birthday. While the bullpen has been effective, there are a lot of over-30 arms, along with oft-injured closer B.J. Ryan. So, while the other teams on this list may be destined for a few years of problems to come, the Blue Jays just have to sure up their lineup and reload with some younger guys and get their average age down in the 26 to 27 range. There may not be a lot of young arms in the system, but those that are currently with the big club have a lot of potential and have proven themselves to be very effective thus far.

Power Rankings -- 06/19/08

2008-06-19T15:41:00.003-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Boston Red Sox	46-29
(2)	---	Chicago Cubs	45-27
(3)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	42-32
(4)	+1	Arizona Diamondbacks	38-34
(5)	+1	Los Angeles Angels	43-30
(6)	-2	Tampa Bay Rays	42-39
(7)	+1	Florida Marlins	39-33
(8)	+1	St. Louis Cardinals	42-31
(9)	+2	Oakland Athletics	39-32
(10)	-1	Chicago White Sox	40-31
(11)	-1	Minnesota Twins	36-36
(12)	+2	New York Yankees	39-33
(13)	+4	Cincinnati Reds	33-40
(14)	+2	Atlanta Braves	36-37
(15)	+4	Texas Rangers	36-37
(16)	-4	Houston Astros	33-39
(17)	+5	Milwaukee Brewers	38-33
(18)	-5	Los Angeles Dodgers	33-38
(19)	+5	Detroit Tigers	34-38
(20)	-5	New York Mets	35-36
(21)	-3	Cleveland Indians	33-39
(22)	-2	Toronto Blue Jays	35-38
(23)	---	Pittsburgh Pirates	34-38
(24)	+2	San Diego Padres	31-42
(25)	---	San Francisco Giants	31-42
(26)	-5	Baltimore Orioles	36-34
(27)	---	Washington Nationals	29-44
(28)	+1	Kansas City Royals	30-42
(29)	+1	Colorado Rockies	30-42
(30)	-2	Seattle Mariners	25-47

Who's Who?

2008-06-14T21:22:00.004-04:00

So, since I'm delaying this week's power rankings until later in the week, let's take a different approach to looking at the teams this weekend. Instead of listing them one through thirty, I'vesplit them up into thirteen different categories to show where the teams currently stand.

Legit Contenders: Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs

These three teams have everything it takes to win the World Series: highly dangerous offenses, at least one legit ace, solid arms rounding out the rotation, stable bullpens and lights-out closers. Each has suffered a significant injury at some point this season -- Boston is currently dealing with the lack of David Ortiz's bat, the Cubs are without Alfonso Soriano's bat for the second time and the Phillies have seen Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino all suffer through a stint on the disabled list. But through it all, these teams haven't skipped a beat, having beaten all the teams that matter -- those within their own division. Barring some sort of catastrophic collapse, you would be very safe putting your money down on any of these three teams winning the Series.

Darkhorse: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels are a mystery team at this point. The depth their offense has, specifically in the outfield is absolutely filthy; and the addition of Jon Garland has been enough to cover the loss of Kelvim Escobar for the season. The surprising thing has been their offense is on pace to score less than 700 runs in a division that isn't exactly lighting up the league with pitching dominance. Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews struggles haven't helped matters any, but with Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins all carrying their weight, they could become a very dangerous team if they can get everyone clicking on all cylinders.

Too Young?: Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks

I'm not saying these two teams are too young to go the distance, just they may still be a season away from entering the upper echelon. Sure, the D'backs unfortunately ran into the juggernaut that was last season's Rockies in the playoffs, but they still posted a pythagorean record under .500 for the season. The good news is this year's offense has gelled much better than last season's, even with the struggles of Eric Byrnes and their bench. Their true strength lies in the pitching staff, however, which is as strong top-to-bottom as any in baseball. The Rays are at a point this season where Arizona was last year. They are very young, just starting to get the feel for playing with each other every day, and are probably at least a year or two away from being able to be legit contenders to Boston and the AL East crown. If James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza can stay healthy and Dan Wheeler can emerge into the closer everyone expects him to be, it may not matter how long it takes their offense come together, however.

Waiting to Make Their Move: Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians

Both the Indians and Dodgers have been slow out of the gate, but there's no reason to doubt they will be able to put it all together and get on a role that propels them into the top of their division. Even with injuries to Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones, LA has the depth to at least tread water until everyone is healthy and on the same page. Not only that, but should the time come for a deal to be made, they have a number of veterans who can be moved -- Juan Pierre, Garciaparra and Mark Sweeney to name a few. Cleveland just has to wake their bats up, because their pitching depth is just absurd. With the power output from Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez all well below their expectations, it's only a matter of time before those bats explode and they are able to make their move in the very weak AL Central.

Waiting to Fade: St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox

The White Sox and Cardinals are two prime examples of teams who have been playing well over their heads and are destined to fall off the table completely. Sure, Chicago has some really good pitching, but their lineup is aging, their bench is borderline pathetic and any team lead by Ozzie Guillen is always one step away from self-destruction. The Cardinals are a team that could have one of those catastrophic 25-50 runs down the stretch where the wheels just completely fall off. There is no true justification for how they are playing right now, and their hodge-podge approach to their pitching staff is just laughable. I truly feel for any team which has to rely on Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper and Joel Pineiro combining for over half of the club's starts.

No Surprises: Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics

Year-in and year-out, these three franchises just keep on with the same lather-rinse-repeat process... Build-up talent, trade for twice the depth, develop, win baseball games. It doesn't matter who they lose, they somehow manager to at least stay competitive and make life hell for their division-mates. The Marlins lose Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, and are still a force in the NL East. The Twins lose Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, and remain right on the edge of contention in the AL Central. And the Athletics lose Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Shannon Stewart, and keep winning ballgames. It just defies the odds. Every season they restock their farm system without an abundance of ML-ready talent and are still better than almost half the league. The truly scary thing is, we all know the Willis/Cabrera deal with Detroit almost did more to guarantee Florida a World Series in the next five years than the Tigers.

Right in the Middle: Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers

They aren't horrible. They aren't great. They aren't likely to win a division title or wild card. They won't be buying or selling at the trade deadline. There really isn't anything that jumps out about their future, but there present isn't so bad to completely write them off. The bottom line is, they are just sorta there. If Major League baseball were an album, they wouldn't be the radio-friendly singles, nor would they be the staples of the live show the diehard fans demand. They would be the filler tracks that just get lost in the middle of the album, probably never cracking a live setlist.

Not Enough Pitching: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros

Vicente Padilla. Shawn Chacon. Brian Moehler. Brandon Backe. Sidney Ponson. Jason Jennings. These are the pitchers who aren't Roy Oswalt and Kevin Millwood. It doesn't matter if you have prolific offensive firepower lead by Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton, if you are trotting out those pitchers every other day, you are not going to win games. It's been a problem that has plagued the Rangers for almost a decade, and the Astros since the dynamic duo of Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens left town.

Tough Luck: Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves

One team was an almost unanimous selection to run the table (Detroit) and the other was everyone's darkhorse favorite to win the Series in late March (Atlanta). And here we are, mid-June, and neither team has so much as caught a whiff of first place. Injuries have absolutely decimated both of these clubs. Just look at some of the names which have lost time because of injuries: (DET) Zumaya, Rodney, Willis, Granderson, Sheffield, Bonderman; (ATL) Hampton, Smoltz, Gonzalez, Soriano, Moylan, Glavine, Diaz, Kotsay. Put those fourteen players together on one team, and you've got a World Series contender. Instead, you've got two teams who are doing everything they can to stay afloat and try to make something happen before their season goes up in flames. This was a widely predicted WS matchup as camp broke in late March, but now it's looking more and more like two teams who are going to fight just to make the .500 mark before the season's end.

No Direction: New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets

I've talked endlessly about how the Yankees are a club that completely lacks direction, but the Giants and Mets are almost equally as bad. All three of these clubs have essentially seen their farm systems implode over the past few seasons; be it through one-sided trades or just bad scouting; don't quite know what to do with all the over-the-hill players they are still paying a significant amount of money to; and are generally lost as to what they should do at this point. The Mets have the core of David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes to piece together with John Maine and Santana, but little to nothing else. Everything else they have is skeletons of former elite players, veteran fringe players and the leftover remains of their wrecked minor league system. Sounds a lot like the Yanks. They've got a great core of early-thirties superstars (A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Abreu) to go along with some youngsters who are loaded with potential (Wang, Cano, Chamberlain) but are crippled at this point by the likes of Giambi, Damon, Posada, Mussina and Pettite. As for the Giants, it is going to take them probably at least a decade to recover from the hangover of the Barroid-era. There isn't a team in the Majors who wouldn't give up every prospect they have for Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Brian Wilson, but with Omar Vizquel, Randy Winn, Rich Aurillia, Ray Durham and the crippling contracts of Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, those three young guns aren't going to be much help.

Youthful Experience: Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds

The Nationals and Reds both fall under this category for different reasons. Outside of Tampa, the Reds have the best core group of young talent in baseball. With Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez pieced together with Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, there isn't any reason why the Reds shouldn't be a perennial contender for years to come. This years is just going to have to be a throwaway season why the youngsters cut their teeth at the bigs and everyone gets comfortable playing for the managerial incompetent known as Dusty Baker. In Washington, it's just a case of getting a group of young talent comfortable with each other and their own abilities. Almost all of them -- from Ryan Zimmerman to Elijah Dukes to Lastings Milledge to Austin Kearns -- have shown what they can do, it's just a matter of bringing all these personalities together and getting them to mesh. There is also an abundance of fine young arms in the nation's capital, which includes Shawn Hill, John Lannan, Jay Bergmann, Matt Chico and Joel Hanrahan who are all ready to contribute.

The Usual Suspects: Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates

Does anything really need to be said here? These three are the anti-everything that Minnesota, Florida and Oakland have become. They are all completely incompetent and incapable of putting a winning product on the field. Even with an outfield of Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the Orioles are still going nowhere in the AL East. The Royals and Pirates are the perfect models for why contraction still may not be the worst idea.

Scraping the Botton: San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies

And here we are, the worst of the worst. Why these three at the end instead of the ones directly above? Well, it is completely expected of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh to take a fat crap in the middle of the diamond every night. Not exactly so with the Padres, Mariners and Rockies. I heavily criticized Seattle and Colorado during the off-season, but the Padres have no reason to be where they currently are. Sure, they play in a park the land mass equivalent of the Sahara Desert, but with a rotation of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf -- all injuries aside -- if you are capable of putting three runs per game on the board, you should be contending. As for Seattle, why they continue to put stock into Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre is anyone's guess. Like I said after the deal was made, Adam Jones meant a hell of a lot more to their offense than Erik Bedard does their pitching staff. At this rate, they'll be lucky to score sixty games, and while their rotation has still crapped the bed, an offense that averages more than four runs per game could still keep them competitive. And then there's Colorado... They weren't that good last season. It's true. They were barely a .500 team in a very weak league last season, but they got hot at the right time. They were ten games under at one point, but as we've all learned, it's just about timing. And getting a botched call at the plate to go your way in game #163 doesn't hurt either. And this year they get absolutely decimated by injuries to every key contributor for that stretch run. Hope you enjoyed it, Colorado, it's gonna be a while before you feel Rocktober again.

Stadium Atmosphere

2008-06-13T17:59:00.004-04:00

Over on the Nation yesterday, a thread was posted (here) about stadium atmosphere and the lack thereof at Turner Field. There's a number of interesting statements and theories contained within, so I figured I'd pick a few comments out and take the discussion a little deeper. So, off we go...

If we ever make the playoffs again [the atmosphere will return], 05 was electric.

I can't speak for the poster who made this comment, but I was there in 2005, for Game 2 at least. The crowd was absolutely dead for the first game of the series, and barely broke 40,000. Thankfully the lure of Smoltz and Clemens in the second game was able to draw out about 6,000 more fans. The problem? Almost everyone around us -- we were sitting down the RF line -- was wearing Astros' colors. And it really seemed like our section wasn't alone in this scenario. Sure, the place went absolutely ballistic when McCann took Rocket deep in the bottom of the second, but that was really the only time the "playoff" atmosphere was there. Even with two Hall of Famers taking the mound, things honestly didn't seem much different than had it been mid-May instead of the first week of October.

The most depressing thing about 2005 wasn't either of the first games, however, it was the "if necessary" fifth game. I had already went back and forth as to whether or not we were going to the game if the Braves were able to pull it out in Game 4. When Adam LaRoche launched a grand slam off Brandon Backe in the top of the third, the deal was sealed. I just hoped there would still be tickets available. So, in the middle of the third, I hoped on Ticketmaster and was actually able to get tickets which were better than the ones we had for the second game. Same section, about three rows closer.

Of course, we all know what happened with that outcome and how Chris Effin Burke will never be able to step back onto a baseball field in Atlanta without being verbally assaulted by all in attendance. Oh, what's that? Burke has returned to Atlanta since -- he's had over 20 PAs, actually -- and the fans haven't so much as acknowledged it? Hrm. Yeah. Sounds about right.

Is it because football rules in the South and we don't care about baseball as much? The way our state produces baseball players, you would think that wouldn't be the case.

It could definitely explain the apathy towards September and October baseball, but what about the middle of the summer? Spring practice has wrapped, the college football season doesn't kick until the end of August, so where are all these diehard sports fans? They can follow the Dawgs, Gators, Tigers, Vols, whoever all over the southeast, but they can't make the drive to downtown Atlanta to catch a weekend series while the kids are out of school? I'm not buying it.

As for how the state of Georgia produces baseball players, I really don't see how that factors into the equation. While over the past two decades, a number of elite players have been produced by the state (Frank Thomas, Tim Hudson, the Drew brothers, McCann, Francoeur, Micah Owings and Nick Markakis) as well as some very serviceable players (Rondell White, Mike Cameron, Michael Barrett, Jake Westbrook, Adam Wainwright) aside from McCann, Francoeur and J.D. Drew, what impact does homegrown talent directly have on the Braves' attendance? Sure, there has been a lot of homegrown talent -- Blaine Boyer, Willie Harris, Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Macay McBride -- none of those players have been the type to make fans stop in their tracks and say "holy shit, Chuck James is starting tonight, dude, we're so there!" Hell, even the debut of Jeff Francoeur -- the local legend, whom most of us had been hearing about since he was a sophomore at Parkview and which was highly publicized in the backend of a day/night doubleheader against the Cubs -- wasn't enough to get 35,000 fans into the seats. Obviously, the "homegrown" card really plays no factor into the thoughts of Braves fans.

It's because the fans got spoiled. The new wore off and now no one cares. Atlanta and Turner Field has nowhere near the history of the cities/stadiums you compared it to.

But what kind of half-life is there for the "new to wear off" and for "no one to care"? Up until 2001, the Braves were still in the top four in attendance in the National League and continued to draw three million fans a season. If the fans just got bored, wouldn't things have started to wear off a little after the World Series title in 1995? Sure, the Braves took a hit in attendance immediately following the two strike-affected seasons, but that was true league-wide. Was it the lure of the new stadium (the five year honeymoon effect, if you will) that kept them around until the early 2000's? Well, if that were the case, shouldn't it have continued to drop, especially as the team was going through so many postseason failures followed by two consecutive seasons in which they missed the postseason? The attendance actually stabilized (to around 35,000 per game) over that time, and didn't see a huge drop-off until the current season.

But, ok, I can still see the fans who hopped on the bandwagon in 1991-93 getting bored and hopping back off. I'll concede that point for now. Nothing can lose the casual fan's attention more than having to sit through a 162 game schedule to make it to the playoffs in October. So, where were those same fans once the team reached the playoffs? Yeah, we have all been letdown and disappointed by this team so many times it's hard to not feel numb about it at this point, but don't forget that as early as 1995, David Justice was having to call out Braves fans for their lack of fire before the Series returned to Atlanta for the sixth and deciding game. Honestly, that was the last real time the city of Atlanta rallied behind this franchise and showed any type of loyalty.

I've actually had to get SRO tickets to a midseason game against the Nats before, which sounds pretty amazing. It was the year the Nat's were good though, Andruw took a walk-off walk in the ninth FTW. Good game.

Ok, I don't wanna be an ass here, but I'm gonna have to call bullshit on this statement.

The Nationals came into existence in 2005, so that doesn't really make it difficult to track down a game that meets the above criteria. The Nationals played ten games in Atlanta that first season, and only for one series were there over 25,000 fans in the stands for every game. And, yes, in one of those games, Andruw did hit a walk-off homerun. Only it was in the tenth. And the paid attendance was less than 20,000 fans. So, yeah...

we will never have this kind of atmosphere for a coupla reasons
1) atlanta is full of transplants whose 1st team is not the braves
2) it is hard to get to the stadium and atlanta is so spread out. the majority of people who are brave fans it takes at least 30 minutes to get to the game

Starting with numero uno: So, essentially, the home attendance should be even worse than it already is? I can't really argue that statement, because we've all see Turner Field overrun with fans from Boston, Chicago and New York when their teams are in town.

Now, number two: This has always been the one, single statement which has always pissed me off the most. Turner Field is no more or less difficult to get to than any other venue in the city. Hell, it may even be easier to get to and find a parking spot because everything else is actually located in the city itself, while the Ted is slightly disconnected with four massive parking lots. Yeah, it can be a little trying to get through the traffic at times, but if you are coming from outside the perimeter, you are going to be moving against the rush-hour traffic headed out of the city. The only true issues you should run into are right after the Grady Curve at the exit for 20 and if something is going on at the Dome or Philips. Saying it's "difficult" to get to the Ted is just a cop-out excuse.

Part of the problem is that Turner is too big for Atlanta and for the Braves' fanbase. The place looks empty, even with attendance over 27,000. There is too much supply and not enough demand.

So, attendance in the 25,000 to 35,000 range is acceptable? It doesn't matter how big or small the stadium is, the number remains the same. Look at the huge attendance numbers the Blue Jays, Indians and Rockies used to put up, would it have been as impressive if their stadiums held less than 40,000? No way.

The gold standard for successful attendance numbers is still the three million mark, something the Braves accomplished for the better part of a decade. That averages out to a little over 37,000 fans per game. It doesn't matter if you are getting those 37,000 fans into a stadium that holds over 50,000 like both Turner Field and Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium or something smaller like PetCo, AT&T or PNC Park that 37,000 fans is still 37,000 fans. Sure, a sellout at a smaller stadium looks more impressive and make things seem less cavernous, but look at stadiums like Shea and Yankee Stadium when they sellout games. Which is more intimidating?

Bottom line, it doesn't matter if Turner Field were built to be a baseball-only ballpark that accommodates 42,000 fans or a converted Olympic venue which held 85,000 fans. The fans aren't going to show up regardless of where the game is taking place. Hell, move them over to Russ Chandler Stadium and let's pack that bitch with the only true 8,000 fans who still give a shit.

Why don't they take out about 10,000 seats and build some sort of fan attraction? Like a little fun zone.

There is already Tooner Field out beyond the Chophouse in left-center, as well as a number of fan- and kid-friendly activities all over the ballpark. Obviously, appealing to the family demographic isn't where the business is at. The problem with Atlanta is it's a very young city. You have four major universities all within driving distance and a lot of the working class are holdovers from those same schools. The bigger problem is the number of draws for this demographic that isn't a baseball game. What is the one section of Turner Field that is always packed and "the place to be seen"? The Chophouse. But how many people outside of diehard baseball fans are going to choose that as their drinking location over going to a club or house party? Exactly.

So, yeah, just my thoughts.

Tracking History

2008-06-13T13:36:00.004-04:00

So, after yesterday's loss to the Cubs, the Braves currently stand at 32-35 (.478) on the season and 7.5 games behind the first-place Phillies. I decided to take a look back at the past decade and see where teams who have started out their season at 32-25 ended up, here's the results:

Year	Team	GB	W-L After	Final W-L	Final GB
2000	CIN	6.5	53-42	85-77	10.0
2001	TOR	7.5	48-47	80-82	16.0
2001	OAK	20.0	70-25	102-60	14.0
2001	CWS	9.5	51-44	83-79	8.0
2002	COL	8.5	41-54	73-89	25.0
2002	BAL	11.5	35-60	67-95	36.5
2003	ARI	10.0	52-43	84-78	16.5
2003	BAL	7.5	39-59	71-91	30.0
2004	ATL	4.5	64-31	96-66	---
2006	MIL	7.5	43-52	75-87	8.5
2007	FLA	5.5	39-56	71-91	18.0

As you see, there's been a mixed bag of success and failures for those teams who have had the same start as Atlanta over the past decade.

With a 32-35 start, it takes at least a 49-46 run over the rest of the season to get back to .500, something only four of the eleven teams were able to accomplish. Of course, there are always the '04 Braves and '01 Athletics who were able to close the season with records of 64-31 and 70-25, respectively.

I think probably the most interesting bit here is only three teams out of the eleven were able to close the distance between themselves and first place over the course of the season -- the aforementioned Atlanta and Oakland teams, along with the '01 White Sox.

Even with the Braves and Athletics successes, the average number of wins for the remainder of the season is just under 49. Only time shall tell where the '08 Braves will fall on this list, but as we all know, it's certainly going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way.

Power Rankings -- 06/12/08

2008-06-12T18:11:00.005-04:00

Sorry I'm a few days late...

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	+3	Boston Red Sox	41-27
(2)	-2	Chicago Cubs	42-24
(3)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	39-28
(4)	-2	Tampa Bay Rays	38-28
(5)	---	Arizona Diamondbacks	35-31
(6)	+1	Los Angeles Angels	41-26
(7)	+5	St. Louis Cardinals	40-27
(8)	---	Florida Marlins	36-29
(9)	-3	Chicago White Sox	37-28
(10)	+4	Minnesota Twins	32-34
(11)	+4	Oakland Athletics	35-30
(12)	-1	Houston Astros	33-33
(13)	---	Los Angeles Dodgers	31-34
(14)	+5	New York Yankees	33-33
(15)	+5	New York Mets	31-33
(16)	-6	Atlanta Braves	32-34
(17)	---	Cincinnati Reds	31-36
(18)	---	Cleveland Indians	30-36
(19)	-4	Texas Rangers	34-33
(20)	-4	Toronto Blue Jays	34-34
(21)	+2	Baltimore Orioles	32-32
(22)	---	Milwaukee Brewers	34-31
(23)	+2	Pittsburgh Pirates	32-34
(24)	-3	Detroit Tigers	28-37
(25)	+1	San Francisco Giants	29-37
(26)	+1	San Diego Padres	29-38
(27)	-3	Washington Nationals	26-41
(28)	+1	Seattle Mariners	24-42
(29)	-1	Kansas City Royals	25-41
(30)	---	Colorado Rockies	26-39

Not sure what I'm going to do with the Calculated Power Rankings, I need to tweak the formula a bit. I may bring it back next week.

Also, for the sake of the Power Rankings, I may move them to the middle of the week permanently since I'm so late with this week.

Walkoff HBPs

2008-06-12T17:58:00.004-04:00

So, after the Braves lost today's game in Chicago after Jeff Ridgway plunked Reed Johnson for yet another loss, the research juices started flowing.

Here's a lost of the walkoff HBPs this decade:

Date	Pitcher	Batter
6/20/2001 ARI at LAD	Erik Sabel (ARI)	Eric Karros (LAD)
7/20/2002 TEX at OAK	Dave Burba (TEX)	Olmedo Saenz (OAK)
7/21/2002 CLE at KCR	Heath Murray (CLE)	Raul Ibanez (KCR)
8/23/2002 ATL at LAD	Kevin Gryboski (ATL)	Paul Lo Duca (LAD)
9/16/2005 OAK at BOS	Keiichi Yabu (OAK)	Manny Ramirez (BOS)
4/5/2007 CLE at CHW	Roberto Hernandez (CLE)	A.J. Pierzynski (CHW)
5/27/2007 CHC at LAD	Carlos Marmol (CHC)	Juan Pierre (LAD)
6/5/2008 NYM at SDP	Scott Schoewenweis (NYM)	Paul McAnulty (SDP)
6/12/2008 ATL at CHC	Jeff Ridgway (ATL)	Reed Johnson (CHC)

Interestingly, the Braves and Indians have been victims twice, whereas the Dodgers have benefited three different times.

Be Back Later

2008-06-05T19:43:00.002-04:00

Probably be unavailable for a few days. I'll have plenty of updates posted in soon.

Brandon

Looking at Some Past Predictions

2008-06-02T22:39:00.003-04:00

So, apparently there was a bit of a hot topic in tonight's gamethread about how a certain someone (re: me) has made some rather outlandish (and seemingly) incorrect predictions lately. Hrm, let's tale a look...

Final round of cuts: "Translation: Expect a lot of one-run losses."

Oh. Well. Wonder how that turned out?

2008 Baseball Predictions: "Prediction: Colorado doesn't win 70 games."

Currently on pace for 57...

Pre-Season Power Rankings: (16) Tampa Bay Rays, (19) Seattle Mariners, (30) Colorado Rockies

Took a beating for each of those..

Glavine???: 6.10 IP/GS, 1.40 WHIP, 4.47 K/9, 4.51 ERA

Actual: 5.7 IP/GS (not counting the Nats game), 1.46 WHIP, 5.08 K/9, 4.56 ERA

Braves Trade Joey Devine to Oakland for Mark and Jamie Kotsay: Expected Runs Scored: 763 runs

Current projection: 765 runs

Sorting Out the Pitching Staff: Expected Runs Allowed: 689 runs

Current projection: 624 runs (a difference of 0.4 runs per game)

Rounding out the Lineup, Pt. 3:

(1) Escobar: 751 OPS

Actual: 758 OPS

(2) Mark Teixeira: .275 / .360 / .525 - .885 OPS

Actual: .276 / .363 / 467 - .831 OPS

(3) Jeff Francoeur: .777 OPS

Actual: .742 OPS

So, yeah.

Did I royally screw on the Zito prediction? Definitely. But I think the above kinda makes up for it...

Playing the Matchup Game

2008-06-02T01:49:00.005-04:00

It's been no surprise to Braves fans over the past two decades Bobby Cox is a fan of playing the platoon game. If there's an available right-handed bat to take the plate of a left-handed hitter he may not feel confident placing in the lineup against left-handed pitchers, he's going to jump on it and ride it out for as long as he can. But how does his tendency to avoid the LHB vs. LHP matchup differ from the league average over that time, and how does the Braves quality and number of left-handed bats play into all this? Over the past few days, I've accumulated a fair amount of data on the subject and decided to dig into it all and see just where it took me, the cumulation of all that is what follows.

The first part of my research focused on the number of lefty vs. lefty matchups that have taken place from 1990 until last season, for both the Majors and the Braves. Here are how those numbers played out, along with the percent of batters were strictly left-handed and the percent of ML pitchers who were lefty:

Year	ML LHB vs. LHP	ML LHB	Braves LHB vs. LHP	Braves LHB	MLB LHP
1990	21.34%	30.27%	20.69%	30.43%	32.92%
1991	22.63%	28.70%	17.00%	34.78%	31.79%
1992	21.84%	27.69%	17.29%	36.36%	31.75%
1993	21.93%	28.03%	24.69%	30.00%	31.16%
1994	22.09%	27.72%	35.82%	27.78%	30.21%
1995	22.93%	28.30%	38.66%	35.00%	29.89%
1996	22.71%	26.61%	29.83%	29.17%	27.88%
1997	24.77%	26.14%	39.67%	42.86%	28.84%
1998	26.23%	26.86%	18.13%	34.78%	29.26%
1999	25.78%	27.34%	12.07%	31.82%	27.18%
2000	26.74%	28.48%	8.17%	24.00%	26.90%
2001	27.33%	29.09%	17.11%	25.00%	25.38%
2002	28.68%	28.71%	7.11%	27.78%	27.75%
2003	28.15%	27.79%	10.63%	23.53%	29.08%
2004	27.36%	29.01%	16.75%	22.22%	26.90%
2005	27.10%	29.43%	19.55%	31.58%	27.89%
2006	25.40%	29.65%	22.32%	31.58%	26.46%
2007	26.80%	29.77%	26.14%	31.82%	27.78%
Total	25.08%	27.39%	21.83%	33.94%	29.02%

Something interesting I first noticed was the fact the percent of LHP in the Majors has dipped by over five percent over the past eighteen seasons. I guess when everyone says that lefties are becoming more of a hot commodity, there is so actual proof to it. If expansion has diluted one aspect of the game, it definitely looks like it's the availability of left-handed pitching.

Now, the truly interesting thing is the overall MLB trend of more LH/LH matchups over this timespan while the number of LHB doesn't make all that great of a swing. The number of left-handed bats tends to stay around the same percent, but the amount of matchups has a shift of almost seven percent from beginning to end. So, it would definitely appear that the overall belief is at least somewhat shifting that matchup may not exactly be that huge of a disadvantage. But, we'll get to that a little later.

The Braves, on the other hand, are all over the place. Granted, we are looking at a PA total that accounts for only about seven percent of the ML total over the given timespan, but it's still intriguing. While there are a few outliers on the high-end (1995, 1997 and 2002) these could be attributed to the fact the Braves also put plenty of distance between themselves and their division rivals and were able to use more position players over the course of the season. Still, the overall total of LH bats is higher for the Braves over this span than for the Majors, yet their percent of LH/LH plate appearances is lower.

So, what's going on here?

We'll, let's dig a little deeper and look at who the Braves primary LH bats have been in the seasons where they have the biggest discrepancies from the league average.

2002 (-21.57%): Keith Lockhart (331), Darren Bragg (240), Matt Franco (233)
2000 (-18.57%): Lockhart (313), Wally Joyner (260), B.J. Surhoff (143)
2003 (-17.52%): Robert Fick (460), Bragg (181), Franco (148)

1995 (+15.73%): Fred McGriff (604), David Justice (491) Ryan Klesko (381)
1997 (+14.90%): McGriff (641), Kenny Lofton (564), Klesko (522), Michael Tucker (554)
1994 (+13.73%): McGriff (478), Justice (424), Klesko (276), Deion Sanders (211)

Obviously, a lack of left-handed depth played into this a great deal.

Now, here is where things start to get interesting.

Over the past eighteen seasons, here are the OPS+ numbers for every situation vs. LHP for the entire Majors:

Situation	vs. LHB	vs. RHB	Overall
MLB	95	102	100

The reason I didn't lay out a year-by-year like I'm about to do for the Braves is because there isn't much difference in the overall range. The overall swing for each category is no more than four percent (for LH/LH) and no less than six percent (overall), so these numbers have remained very consistent.

Now, let's take a look at the Braves:

Situation	vs. LHB	vs. RHB	Overall
1990	108	112	111
1991	90	104	102
1992	98	108	106
1993	104	102	102
1994	98	92	94
1995	99	99	99
1996	106	98	101
1997	96	99	98
1998	74	103	98
1999	60	110	104
2000	85	113	111
2001	76	112	106
2002	80	97	96
2003	74	106	102
2004	116	104	106
2005	95	102	101
2006	91	98	97
2007	82	105	99

Uh, wow. That's a pretty huge range. An almost fifty percent difference from max to min in LHB/LHP, a nineteen percent swing in RHB/LHP and a fifteen percent swing overall.

The interesting thing here is the lack of correlation between these numbers and the ones I posted above showing the lack of depth in the years there was a big difference in the percent of LHB/LHP situations.

While 2004 is an exception -- thanks to J.D. Drew's 119 OPS+ against lefties -- there were still a number of seasons where the Braves saw a higher OPS+ out of their lefties against LHP than their righties, but still saw the righties get the majority of the at-bats. Even in 2002, when the Braves only sent a lefty to face a lefty seven percent of the time, there was only a seventeen point difference in the OPS+.

So, what is there to take away from all this? Well, for starters, you gotta have left-handed depth. And you can't be afraid to use them against left-handed pitchers, regardless of whether or not there may be an inferior righty also on the bench. I know that's a very brief synopsis of everything presented here, but I honestly think the data here really does speak a lot for itself.

Power Rankings -- 06/01/08

2008-06-01T21:20:00.002-04:00

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	3 (+2)	Chicago Cubs	35-21
(2)	4 (+2)	Tampa Bay Rays	34-22
(3)	7 (+4)	Philadelphia Phillies	32-25
(4)	2 (-2)	Boston Red Sox	34-24
(5)	1 (-4)	Arizona Diamondbacks	31-25
(6)	9 (+3)	Chicago White Sox	30-25
(7)	10 (+3)	Los Angeles Angels	33-24
(8)	11 (+3)	Florida Marlins	31-23
(9)	6 (-3)	Oakland Athletics	29-27
(10)	5 (-5)	Atlanta Braves	29-27
(11)	15 (+4)	Houston Astros	30-27
(12)	17 (+5)	St. Louis Cardinals	33-24
(13)	8 (-5)	Los Angeles Dodgers	27-28
(14)	14 (--)	Minnesota Twins	28-28
(15)	12 (-3)	Texas Rangers	29-28
(16)	21 (+5)	Toronto Blue Jays	31-27
(17)	22 (+5)	Cincinnati Reds	27-29
(18)	13 (-5)	Cleveland Indians	25-30
(19)	23 (+4)	New York Yankees	28-27
(20)	20 (--)	New York Mets	27-27
(21)	16 (-5)	Detroit Tigers	23-32
(22)	24 (+2)	Milwaukee Brewers	28-28
(23)	18 (-5)	Baltimore Orioles	26-28
(24)	19 (-5)	Washington Nationals	24-33
(25)	26 (+1)	Pittsburgh Pirates	26-29
(26)	25 (-1)	San Francisco Giants	23-33
(27)	30 (+3)	San Diego Padres	23-34
(28)	27 (-1)	Kansas City Royals	22-34
(29)	29 (--)	Seattle Mariners	21-35
(30)	28 (-2)	Colorado Rockies	20-36

Five Key Matchups for 6/2 thru 6/8
(8) Florida at (10) Atlanta -- 4 games (Mon-Thurs)
(2) Boston at (4) Tampa Bay -- 3 games (Tues-Thurs)
(3) Philadelphia at (10) Atlanta -- 3 games (Fri-Sun)
(7) Los Angeles Angels at (9) Oakland -- 3 games (Fri-Sun)
(12) St. Louis at (11) Houston -- 3 games (Fri-Sun)

I think it looks a lot better this week, with limiting the movement to five positions either way. When I did my pre-rankings for this week, there were only three or four teams that I had outside of that range that I had to do some tweaking with in order to make the list work the way I wanted it. Hopefully this cuts down on all the huge jumps and drops.

A Lack of Offensive Pop

2008-06-01T15:36:00.006-04:00

So, with the Braves having Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz both on the disabled list, the opportunity presents itself for their lineup to contain a couple rookies in the outfield who, based on their numbers in the Minors, look to be two of the weaker players power-wise in the organization. So, how do things sort out for the Braves if they are forced to plug both Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco into the same lineup for any extended prior of time?

So, the question presents itself, who have been the weakest hitters in the Majors in the Post-Strike Era? Here's a list of players who have had 3,000 plate appearances while posting an isoSLG of .080 or lower.

Player	PA	isoSLG	OPS+
Rey Sanchez	4248	.063	67
Rey Ordonez	3407	.064	59
Luis Castillo	6422	.065	94
Juan Pierre	5417	.072	84
Tom Goodwin	4209	.073	73
Cesar Izturis	3117	.075	68
David Eckstein	4421	.077	89
Jose Vizcaino	4320	.079	76

As you can see, out of the players listed, only Pierre and Goodwin weren't middle infielders. Also of interest is the only former teammates on that list are Castillo and Pierre, who were the table setters for the Marlins team that won the World Series in 2003.

Things could definitely prove interesting in Atlanta if the Braves are forced to plug three players into their lineup -- Anderson, Blanco and Yunel Escobar -- who are all primarily singles hitters.

Preview: Playing the Matchup Game

2008-06-01T00:35:00.002-04:00

I'm currently in the middle of researching an article on playing towards the right-handed batters vs. left-handed pitchers matchup and how Bobby Cox has implemented this over the past eighteen seasons. Hopefully I will have it all posted sometime tomorrow.

Brandon

Pitches Per Plate Appearance -- Home vs. Road

2008-05-31T22:35:00.003-04:00

So, we all know about how the Braves have struggled on the road, while striving at home. A couple days ago, I posted a note on how the Braves aren't seeing any less pitches when they drop games -- in fact, they are seeing more -- but how do those numbers look when divided between their home and road splits?

Let's take a look...

Road (27 games): 3.65 pitches/plate appearance
Home (29 games): 3.77 pitches/plate appearance

Alright, so, now we're getting somewhere.

Let's take it a step further and look at the won/loss splits for each of those...

Road Wins (7 games): 3.47 pitches/plate appearance
Road Losses (20 games): 3.73 pitches/plate appearance

Home Wins (22 games): 3.79 pitches/plate appearance
Home Losses (7 games): 3.72 pitches/plate appearance

Well, I guess based on that, there really isn't much that can be drawn from all this.

Updates To Come

2008-05-30T23:53:00.000-04:00

I've got about five or six different ideas I'm working on right now. Hopefully I'll get them posted sometime Saturday evening.

Keep checking back.

Brandon

Pitching Run Differential

2008-05-29T00:16:00.003-04:00

Ok, so, this is a stat I came up with last October at Braves Nation, and decided to take a second look at it this season. For anyone who missed it the first time around, the original thread can be found here. There's a short description of it there, but for those of us who are too lazy to check out a link, here it is again:

Honestly, it's a very simple analysis, with a lot of room for error and misinterpretation, but here goes...So, what I did was take the number of runs that a pitcher per out, and compared that to the average number of team runs scored over that same period of time.

Think of it as an adjusted run differential for pitchers.

Granted, I could have taken this a step further and calculated the actual run support a pitcher received instead of using the overall team average, but, honestly, I think run support is about a luck-oriented stat as there is. The purpose of the game is to score runs, regardless of who is on the mound, so I just went by what the team could do on any given day.

So, what you're gonna see is a positive or negative numerical value which represents, on average, where a team stands when Pitcher X departs the game.

There you have it. Average runs scored minus average runs allowed. Simple enough.

Hell, I'm in a giving mood for those of you who may still not be getting it, so I'll throw out an example:

Lance Harbor is a starting pitcher for the West Canaan Coyotes. The West Canaan offense, lead by leadoff hitter Wendell Brown, is scoring runs at a pace of 4.76 per game -- or 119 in 25 games, over 224 innings (672 outs). This total comes to 0.1771 runs/out for the Coyotes lineup. Over Harbor's six starts, he's worked 32 innings (96 outs) and allowed 12 runs. So, he's getting 16 outs per game and letting up two runs per game. So, in his time in the game, the offense is scoring 2.8336 runs and he's allowing two runs per game, this gives him a run differential of +0.8366 R/G. So, obviously, he's doing his part, it's in the hands of the bullpen and offense as to what the outcome of the game is.

Pretty simple: A positive number says the pitcher is doing his job and he's usually leaving the game with the lead, so, the higher the better. A negative number says he's not carrying his weight and is more times than not leaving the game with his team trailing, further away from zero, the worse he is.

Just to take the explanation a step further, here is how the Braves starting pitchers faired last season, their number of starts in parenthesis:

Hudson: +1.11 (34)
Smoltz: +1.12 (32)
James: +0.41 (30)
Carlyle: -0.44 (20)
Davies: -0.77 (17)
Reyes: -1.16 (10)
Cormier: -1.25 (9)
Redman: -1.59 (5)
Bennett: +1.21 (2)
Lerew: -1.21 (3)

Alright, got that? Smoltz and Huddy = Awesome. Cormier and Redman = Crap.

Let's take it to 2008.

Hudson: +1.19 (12)
Jurrjens: +1.00 (11)
Glavine: -0.10 (9)
Reyes: -0.36 (6)
Smoltz: +1.67 (5)
James: -1.76 (5)
Bennett: +0.93 (3)
Campillo: +2.66 (2)

Starters: +0.56
Bullpen: +0.35
Total: +0.91

Last season, the Braves staff had a total run differential of +0.47, so that lets you see just how much better the pitching has been thus far. The starters were at +0.17 (a decent jump) and the bullpen was right around the same, at +0.30.

The truly shocking stat from last year to this season is that last season, the Braves trotted out a starting pitcher with a positive run differential only 41.98% of the time, compared to a 62.26% for this season. The best in the NL East last year was the Mets at 85.19%, while the division champ Phillies were at 57.41%.

Then again, it's still very early. We're just under a third of the way into the season thus far, so there's still a lot of baseball left to be played. I'll keep tracking this and updating as the season goes on. I'll also take a look at some other teams around the league when I get a chance.

Note: I promised Luke a look at the differences of pitch count on offense comparing home and road splits, which I thought I'd get up tonight, but that's not gonna happen. Look for it sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Welcome to the bigs, Kid

2008-05-27T18:34:00.001-04:00

One More For Tonight

2008-05-27T01:29:00.005-04:00

So, after seeing the Phillies put up twenty on the lowly Rockies today with only seven extra-base hits, I decided to dig a little and see what I can come up with in terms of most runs with the least number of extra-base hits over the past ten years.

Here's the list I came up with:

Team	Opp	Date	Runs	XBH
COL	ARI	9/21/02	15	1
OAK	@ LAA	5/1/08	15	2
COL	SFG	6/15/99	15	3
CLE	TOR	7/5/00	15	3
OAK	@ BAL	8/30/01	15	3
CWS	@ MIN	6/25/02	15	3
SFG	SDP	4/9/03	15	3
ATL	MON	7/18/04	16	3
SEA	@ ANA	9/22/04	16	3
NYY	@ TBD	9/13/05	17	2
KCR	NYY	9/13/04	17	3
SDP	FLA	8/23/02	18	3
LAA	@ BAL	9/12/07	18	3

Quite interesting, I think.

Some Late Night Notes From Around the League

2008-05-27T00:22:00.005-04:00

Let's start things off first with a look at three bits on the Braves:

Working the Count (No, not the blog...)

An interesting tidbit came into my mind after watching the Braves run-up Brandon Webb's pitch count early in today's game. Have the Braves had more or less success working the count this season? The answer may surprise you...

Here are the amount of pitches per plate appearance in their wins and losses, guess which is which...

(A) 3.723 P/PA
(B) 3.714 P/PA

Easy enough, right? Considering the Braves are averaging around 39 batters per game, the difference comes to just over a third of a pitch per game, so it's not like there has been a huge swing in wins and losses.

So, which are the Braves seeing more pitches in? If you answered losses, you were correct.

The Many Streaks of Kelly Johnson

If there was one thing Atlanta fans took away from the 2007 season it was that Kelly Johnson is just about as streaky as a hitter as there could possibly be.

Hell, it goes back further than that, actually. A lot of us have not so fond memories of the .227 OPS he posted in his first 36 ML plate appearances (including a .030 batting average). And what did he do in the following 112 PAs? He only put up a 1.046 OPS. Then, of course, he went on to end the season on a .220/.286/.357 skid over his final 186 trips to the plate.

Get the point? It was the same rinse and repeat process last season.

So, of course, Braves fans -- and their short term memory, god bless 'em -- get a little too excited and uppity when Kelly started hitting once he was removed from the leadoff spot two weeks ago.

But was it really because of his movement in the lineup, or were the seeds already being planted for him to begin another one of his many streaks over the course of the long season? Well, to the stats we go...

For starters, let's look at it in black and white -- what he did before the lineup switch and what he's done afterwards...

May 13th	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Before	136	.261	.328	.429	.757
After	39	.429	.462	.714	1.176

Can't argue with that, pretty stark difference.

But, you also can't argue with the fact there is a pretty big difference in 136 PAs and 39 PAs.

So, let's break it down a bit and look at Kelly some of Kelly's increments of 39 PAs so far this year.

Increment	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
First 39 @ Leadoff	39	.237	.256	.263	.519
Last 39 @ Leadoff	39	.314	.333	.486	.819

As you can see there, in the ten games or so leading up to the big shuffle, Kelly was showing some signs of coming out of the slump he's been in and out of this season. So, I wouldn't be so quick to say it's just because he was relieved of the stresses of hitting leadoff, but let's give it some time to see where he goes from here.

Things Are Heating Up For Tex

Last week I touched on how much Mark Teixeira has been struggling so far this season and how much the Braves are going to be in dire need of him breaking out of the slump he's been in. Could now be the time?

Teixeira	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RBI
Last 8 Games	33	.379	.455	.483	.938	10

The scary thing is, those numbers are including the 0-for-11 he put up in the first three games of the Arizona series. Then again, when you are facing Doug Davis, Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, such things are to be expected. But then he goes and breaks out against arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Brandon Webb, and drives in four runs in the first two innings.

We can only hope it continues as the Braves head into Milwaukee and Cincinnati.

No Free Passes

While tracking the Tigers/Angels and Red Sox/Mariners games tonight, I came across two rather (un)impressive stats:

Player	PA	BB	PA/BB
Erick Aybar	160	2	80.00
Yuniesky Betancourt	182	3	60.67

Ouch. And Braves fans routinely complain about how Jeff Francoeur is still not where he needs to be in drawing walks? Well, I decided to take this a step further and see who the worst offenders were in this category with over 200 plate appearances.

Player	PA	BB	PA/BB
Kevin Kouzmanoff	227	6	37.83
Jose Lopez	219	6	36.50
Emil Brown	203	7	29.00
Miguel Tejada	222	8	27.75
Cristian Guzman	220	8	27.50
Freddy Sanchez	214	8	26.75
Ryan Zimmerman	220	9	24.44
Ryan Braun	215	9	23.89
Garrett Atkins	209	9	23.22
Jeff Francoeur	214	10	21.40
Khalil Greene	213	10	21.30

So, it could be much worse. Just imagine if the Braves had not one, but two players with over 200 plate appearances -- in the case of the Nationals and Padres -- who weren't drawing many walks. Even though Matt Diaz has only drawn three walks this season, he's still 67 plate appearances away from hitting the 200 PA mark.

Surprising Heavy Hitters

So far this season, there have been some hitters who have been absolutely killing the ball. They aren't quite the names you would expect, however. Who would have expected the Phillies would have two players in their lineup who currently have an isoSLG over .300, despite neither being Ryan Howard? Or how about one being an infielder for the Marlins? An outfielder for the White Sox? Here's the list of players who currently have 200+ trips to the plate and have put up an isoSLG over .300 so far.

Player	% XBH	isoSLG
Dan Uggla	61.40	.380
Lance Berkman	50.00	.374
Pat Burrell	57.45	.319
Chase Utley	51.67	.313
Carlos Quentin	44.00	.307

And there you have it.

More tomorrow, hopefully. I'm still working on the aforementioned clutch hitting project, so maybe I'll get around to posting it.

The Value of Clutch

2008-05-26T14:43:00.001-04:00

Major project coming soon.

Keep checking back throughout the day.

EDIT (9:00 PM) -- This may take longer than expected.