Concerning Last Friday

The case of the Braves game against the Nationals last Friday night is an interesting one.

The Nats were cruising to what looked like an easy victory through the first 6.5 innings, leading 4-0 and starter Ross Detwiler only allowing a handful of baserunners through six. When Detwiler took the mound to face Matt Diaz to start the bottom of the 7th, the Nationals win expectancy (WE) sat at 94%.

However, following a catastrophic inning that saw Detwiler hit Freddie Freeman, allow a bunt hit to Jack Wilson, balk both runners into scoring position, surrender run-scoring at-bats from both pinch-hitter Martin Prado and leadoff man Michael Bourn, and then a game-tying two-run homer to rookie Andrelton Simmons, the Braves had brought the game back to a 4-4 tie and a 50/50 WE for both teams.

This changed on the very first pitch of the top of the 8th, when Braves reliever Chad Durbin got took deep by Michael Morse on the first pitch of the inning, putting Washington back up 5-4, and swinging the WE back in their favor, to the tune of 75%.

The Braves threatened in the bottom of the 8th with a leadoff single from Chipper Jones, but he was eliminated on an inning-ending double play hit into by Diaz.

When the Nationals went quietly in their half of the 9th, their WE sat at 80% with closer Tyler Clippard coming on to face the bottom of the Braves lineup -- Freeman, the pitcher's spot, and Prado, who remained in the nine-hole after a double switch kept him in the game. When Freeman lead-off the inning with a double, the Braves looked in good shape to tie the game, having brought the Nats WE down 24% points to 56% with a pinch-hitter coming to the plate and none out.

The Braves options off the bench were Dan Uggla, backup catcher David Ross, lefty Eric Hinske, or one of the team's starting pitchers if manager Fredi Gonzalez chose to try and bunt Freeman over.

The controversy that has since arisen over this half-inning was whether or not Fredi Gonzalez should have called for a bunt in order to get Freeman to third with one out. With Uggla, Ross and Hinske the only available position players on the Braves bench, that would've left one of the Braves starters (Tim Hudson, Mike Minor, Jair Jurrjens or Tommy Hanson) to step into the box and attempt the sacrifice.


The least mentioned option would have been for Gonzalez to pinch-run for Freeman with one of the pitchers, use Uggla off the bench to hit in the pitcher's spot, and then move Prado to 1B if the game went into extra innings. Even if Gonzalez used one pitcher to PR and one to PH and attempt a bunt, he would have helped the team by getting the slow Freeman off the bases as the tying run. Considering the strong arms the Nationals had in center (Rick Ankiel) and right (Bryce Harper), putting a runner in for Freeman, even if it were Uggla, would've been the smart move to make

Regardless, let's look at how bunting would have effected the Braves run expectancy (RE) and WE. Since the Braves would only need one run to tie the game, all RE numbers will be concerning approximations of single-run scoring percentages.

As the situation currently stood, runner on 2nd & no one out: RE = ~63% | WE = ~44%
If runner was bunted over, leaving runner on 3rd & one out: RE =  ~67% | WE = ~39%
If runner wasn't moved up, leaving runner on 2nd & one out: RE =  ~42% | WE = ~28%

Slight difference in the first two possible outcomes, as run expectancy raised, but win expectancy went down. This is based on the fact the RE percentages are based off of any given inning, where as the WE is based off of the game as a whole and the actual situation.

Based off of these percentages, while the Braves could have very slightly increased the chance of getting the single run in, their win expectancy dropped even more so. Would it have been worth it for Gonzalez to risk one of his remaining three outs in an attempt to get Freeman from second to third? The numbers suggest any runner is almost as likely to score from second with none out as they are to score from third with one out.

The alternative to the bunting would've been for Gonzalez to choose to go with one of his available pinch-hitters (Uggla, Hinske or Ross) and let them swing away in an attempt to get the runner in. This would leave the Braves with likely Uggla or Hinske (both of which had been struggling), Prado and Bourn to get the runner in from second with three outs to play with. Even if the pinch hitter isn't capable of getting the runner over or getting the run in, the Braves would still have two of the team's most consistent hitters coming up with one out.

As it played out, Gonzalez chose to use Hinske against Clippard instead of bunting a runner over. Hinske hit a flyball to left-center, but Freeman was unable to advance on the play with Ankiel in center. Prado, the next man up, drew a walk, putting runners at first and second with one out. While this didn't increase the Braves chances of getting Freeman in from second, it did raise the Braves WE back up to 33%. Bourn was next up, and also hit a deep fly to center, which Ankiel again made a play on and Freeman was unable to advance. At this point, with Simmons at the plate, the Braves RE was now under 50% and their WE was below 20%. One flyball to right later, and the Nationals had held on for a 5-4 victory.

After the game, the Twitterverse exploded with people calling for Gonzalez's head (a rather common practice...) over the refusal to bunt Freeman over.

With the not-so-fleet of foot Freeman as the runner, it likely would have taken a perfect bunt from a pitcher coming off the bench late, and then likely a flyball to left (and the Nats weakest OF arm at the time, Roger Bernadina) in order to score him, if the team were unable to get a basehit. With Clippard having the best season of his career (surrendering a .137 BAA and .200 BABIP, both career bests) the chances of the Braves getting a hit seemed to be limited. As a result, bunting Freeman over would've given the Braves only one legitimate chance at getting the run in, as any flyball with two outs would have ended the game.

Bunting Freeman over would've required the Braves to fit a limited number of scenarios in to tie the game. However, keeping him at second and taking three swinging attempts against Clippard would have opened up a lot more opportunities to get the runner in, regardless of how hitters have faired against the Nationals closer.