Here we are, the end of June. And even with all the injuries endured, the Braves still only stand four games back from the NL East leading Phillies. Even more impressive than where they currently stand is their remarkable 46-37 Pythagorean won-loss record, which is six games better than their actual 40-43 mark.
The story of the season thus far, aside from the injuries -- which I'll get to shortly -- has been the unbelievable 4-21 record the Braves have posted in one-run games. When you look at the home split for that number, a very pedestrian 4-5, it really makes you wonder what has gone wrong on the road to leave the Braves with an 0-16 mark. Taking the one-run losses completely out of the equation, you see Atlanta has a remarkable 36-22 record, and a much better 12-13 clip on the road.
So, what has gone so wrong the Braves can't get it done in one-run games? Can't blame the bullpen, which has posted a remarkable 114 ERA+ based on the rest of the league's bullpen work. You can't even really blame a lack of quality performances in clutch situations, as Braves pitchers have held opposing hitters to a 105 OPS+ in high leverage sitautions; not excellent, but not necessarily damning either, especially when you see that same number drop to 96 in innings seven through nine. Then it must be the offense, right? Well, in high leverage situations, the Braves bats are right at the league average in OPS, garnering them an OPS+ of 99. In late and close situations, they are even slightly better, putting up a 102 OPS+. Must be their late inning heroics which have been falling short then, right? Not quite, they've posted a 104 OPS+ in the last three innings. And the mystery continues...
One of the biggest factors could be the inconsistency of the Braves lineup. Not the actual pieces, but the names written into it. As of the Braves 83rd game on Sunday, Bobby Cox has written out forty different combinations of the eight position players in their lineup. Granted, that number isn't mind-blowing, a lot of teams have already used over forty different combinations, but the Braves problem has been the lack of depth to use so many different lineups. Given the lengthy injuries to Chipper Jones, Mark Kotsay, Matt Diaz, along with time missed by Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, Cox hasn't had the type of bench talent needed to fill those holes. Sure, Gregor Blanco has proven he's capable of being a ML role player, Omar Infante and Ruben Gotay are well established as being the same and Greg Norton may be a serviceable bat off the bench for most teams, but those four names have already accounted for over 100 games started for the Braves. Losing the offense by having one of those bats in the lineup is bad enough, but considering the Braves have had at least two of those names written in for almost every game, it's easy to see why their offense is on pace to only score 730 runs for the season. And that isn't even factoring in the offensive black-hole that is Corky Miller when he gets a spot start to rest Brian McCann. We all had our doubts entering the season about the depth if something were to happen to key members of the Braves offense, but I don't think any of us anticipated this much missed time from the main pieces.
One thing the offense has to look forward to is Mark Teixeira's offensive explosion over the past month. After posting OPS numbers just below .800 for the first two months of the season, in June he has run up a heavy 1.041 OPS. But the question remains: was it worth it to mortgage such a huge piece of the future last July to acquire him? In his first 135 games in Atlanta, he's posted a line of .293/.389/.544 good for a .933 OPS, 33 homers, 118 RBI and 85 runs scored. Certainly far from horrible numbers. However (and you know there is always an however) over that same timespan, the Braves have gone 68-70. While you can't blame that on Teixeira, the Braves are in the same place -- below .500 and out of first place -- they were prior to the deal being made.
The question has to be asked: Was it worth it? Teixeira gave the Braves all the potential to contend over the past eleven months, even to the point of having numerous highly-respected analysts (Rosenthal, Gammons) picking the Braves to be World Series contenders in '08. But if he walks away to greener pastures -- and you know exactly what type of green I'm talking about -- in New York or Boston after this season, where does that leave the state of the Braves offense? We've already witnessed the turmoil that is trying to piece together a respectable lineup on a daily basis made up greatly of career bench players, what happens if one of the game's premiere 1B goes elsewhere? More on that in the next entry.
Now, how about the pitching staff? As much as we all hate to see it, the careers of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine could be over. Glavine may return for the stretch run this season, but we know that Smoltz is gone for the season and if I had to bet on it, I wouldn't say we see either back in 2009. That isn't to say the starting rotation isn't in good shape, however. There is always Tim Hudson, who has been the Braves one true rock over the past two seasons; and the young trio of Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and the re-emergence of Jo-Jo Reyes have proven to be a very bright spot for the Braves future. Jorge Campillo has also proven to be very formidable, however is often the case with spot-starters who emerge out of nowhere (re: Jorge Sosa, Pete Smith, Terry Mulholland, Damian Moss) they are pitching on borrowed time. He could develop into something worthwhile, but when you are approaching thirty and the Mariners saw fit to give up on you, you just gotta ride it out while it lasts.
What concerns me most is the over-dependence on the bullpen so far. The Braves currently have two pitchers (Blaine Boyer and Will Ohman) who have appeared in over half of the games so far, two which are just below that number (Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett) and one more (Royce Ring) who has also made over thirty appearances. The only other NL team which has accomplished the same has been the Nationals, who have made 258 pitching chances this season, compared to the Braves making 264. If the Braves do manage to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, come August and September, it is going to be very interesting to see how those arms have held up given the usage Cox has already gotten out of them.
So, what is left for this club to do down the stretch? Well, the club has already stated they are going to stick with the arms they have for the starting rotation. Fair enough, so far the young guns seem more than capable. But what of the offensive needs? The Braves could definitely use a consistent bat in left, but what are they going to use as the tradebait? They could likely land someone like Raul Ibanez before the deadline, but is it worth giving up a prospect for a 36 year old bat that is going to provide two months of service? It's not quite the same as the Teixeira/Saltalamacchia debate from last year, but is it really worth giving up a piece for the future to get someone like Ibanez when Brandon Jones is already a part of the team? The team is already looking at getting Mark Kotsay's bat back within the next few weeks, which will provide a definite power boost over Gregor Blanco, which will essentially be the same acquiring another bat. What about the bullpen? Well, getting Mike Gonzalez back should have a positive effect on the number of pitchers Cox has to use, as it gets rid of the closer-by-committee that has been in place for most of the season. Phil Stockman also provides a fresh arm down in Richmond if someone's arm does fall off before another can be acquired. And while neither is currently on the 40-man roster, Francisley Bueno and Jorge Julio are both available at Richmond, as well. So theoretically, the Braves have enough pieces they could keep it completely within the organization for the rest of the season, they just have to hope none of the current big names go down with injury before August and September.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Teams Stuck on the Fence
Of course, while the teams I listed are most likely to sell, others will be looking to buy -- Rays, White Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, as well as a few others -- there are also a few teams who are sort of stuck in between and will have to wait a few weeks to see where they stand.
Now, don't get me wrong, there is still a whole lot of baseball left to be played, and even a number of the teams I listed as sellers aren't completely out of it -- look no further than the Mets, who stood a mere three games out of the NL East lead entering today's action. Like I said, however, those teams would be best suited to sell, regardless of what their short-term outlook may be.
Anyways, onto the teams who have some open-ended questions left before they decide which end of the spectrum they lie on.
Cleveland Indians
With the AL Central still being anyone's to win, even with the Indians being six games under .500, they are only 7.5 games back. Their biggest problem lies in aces C.C. Sabathia, however. Sabathia is a free agent at year's end and with the usual list of suitors already showing interest, which means Cleveland likely won't have the money to compete in that type of market. The Indians have already lost Jake Westbrook for the season, but do have Fausto Carmona set to return soon. Their offense seems set, even with the struggles of and injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, if they can tread water until their return, they can still make a run.
Detroit Tigers
Now, don't get me wrong, there is still a whole lot of baseball left to be played, and even a number of the teams I listed as sellers aren't completely out of it -- look no further than the Mets, who stood a mere three games out of the NL East lead entering today's action. Like I said, however, those teams would be best suited to sell, regardless of what their short-term outlook may be.
Anyways, onto the teams who have some open-ended questions left before they decide which end of the spectrum they lie on.
Cleveland Indians
With the AL Central still being anyone's to win, even with the Indians being six games under .500, they are only 7.5 games back. Their biggest problem lies in aces C.C. Sabathia, however. Sabathia is a free agent at year's end and with the usual list of suitors already showing interest, which means Cleveland likely won't have the money to compete in that type of market. The Indians have already lost Jake Westbrook for the season, but do have Fausto Carmona set to return soon. Their offense seems set, even with the struggles of and injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, if they can tread water until their return, they can still make a run.
Detroit Tigers
Despite the 23-32 start the Tigers got off to, they have gone 16-8 so far this month, and find themselves very much in the thick of things in the AL Central. The season-ending injury to Jeremy Bonderman could end up being their downfall, however. The silver lining for their pitching staff, however, is the recent return of both Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya. Their offense needs to keep hitting, because if the big bats can't start producing at a 5+ runs/game pace like everyone expected, it won't matter what their pitching does. They are also a team which is strapped for young talent right now because of the king's ransom they sent to Florida in the Willis/Cabrera deal, so they could be hard-pressed to find potential prospects to piece together to make a run at the deadline.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics remain key contenders for both the AL West or the AL Wildcard, despite many insider's beliefs they are still likely to deal aces Rich Harden and Joe Blanton before the deadline. If Oakland does go that route, it's highly doubtful they would have the pitching behind Justin Duchscherer, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland to continue making a run at the post-season. Not to mention, it would be very much against Billy Beane's character to go out and acquire a big-name free agent-to-be at the trade deadline.
New York Yankees
To hear the Steinbrenners say it, the Yankees are never out of contention, no matter where they may be in the standings. I wouldn't be so sure to say they have a chance in the AL East with Boston and Tampa Bay running away with the division, but they do remain the front runners in the Wildcard race with surprises in Oakland and Minnesota being their main contention. As we all know, price is never a problem in New York, so they can make a run at any big name they won't. The main thing with the Yanks is their reliance on older talent right now and how much it is bringing their club down, but I've discussed that to no end. They could stand to drop a few dollars, however, if they intend on making hard runs at Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has managed to do a whole lot with very little so far this season and, as usual, it's just a testament to their success in trading and developing. They do have a few holes they need to feel though. They could stand to add a bat capable of hitting 15 or so homers between now and the end of the season and another veteran starter to pair with Livan Hernandez so their bullpen doesn't get too stressed down the stretch. It goes against their model to acquire any big names, so it isn't likely they will make a play on any, but they definitely have the young depth to go after a few key role players.
Atlanta Braves
I already have a full entry planned on the state of the Braves, but the long and short of it is the team needs depth: both on the bench and in the bullpen. The club has already said they are set with starting pitchers, namely the youngters Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes, so don't expect them to go after Greg Maddux if the Padres make him available. They are going to need a quality bat to take at least some of the strain off Brandon Jones in left, another reliable arm for the bullpen -- which has already seem five relievers make over thirty appearances -- and a bat or two for the bench would be nice. But, all of this will be tackled very soon with a Braves-centric entry.
Florida Marlins
The NL East is a lot like the AL Central right now, with a number of teams still having a very good shot at taking the division, and the Marlins perfectly mirror the situation the Twins are in. Only, the Marlins make their living with big bats whereas the Twins do their thing with pitching and timely hitting. The Marlins, of course, don't have any space financially to pick up any type of contract over a couple million, so any deal they strike is going to have to favor their budget. It isn't going to be easy for them to acquire a veteran starter in a situation like that, so they could end up in a situation where they start to fade before the deadline even arrives.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are surprisingly in a good situation to make a run at this point, the only real thing they need right now is a starter to compliment Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan in the rotation. The problem they could run into is their need to conserve money in order to pay the type of money Prince Fielder is going to command come season's end. It all depends on where they stand in the coming weeks. If they can keep pace with the Cardinals, they will most likely start looking for an arm; if not, they could dump a few contracts.
As I said, expect the next entry to be a state of the organization report on the Braves. May be tomorrow evening or sometime Monday afternoon, but I'll have it up soon.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics remain key contenders for both the AL West or the AL Wildcard, despite many insider's beliefs they are still likely to deal aces Rich Harden and Joe Blanton before the deadline. If Oakland does go that route, it's highly doubtful they would have the pitching behind Justin Duchscherer, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland to continue making a run at the post-season. Not to mention, it would be very much against Billy Beane's character to go out and acquire a big-name free agent-to-be at the trade deadline.
New York Yankees
To hear the Steinbrenners say it, the Yankees are never out of contention, no matter where they may be in the standings. I wouldn't be so sure to say they have a chance in the AL East with Boston and Tampa Bay running away with the division, but they do remain the front runners in the Wildcard race with surprises in Oakland and Minnesota being their main contention. As we all know, price is never a problem in New York, so they can make a run at any big name they won't. The main thing with the Yanks is their reliance on older talent right now and how much it is bringing their club down, but I've discussed that to no end. They could stand to drop a few dollars, however, if they intend on making hard runs at Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has managed to do a whole lot with very little so far this season and, as usual, it's just a testament to their success in trading and developing. They do have a few holes they need to feel though. They could stand to add a bat capable of hitting 15 or so homers between now and the end of the season and another veteran starter to pair with Livan Hernandez so their bullpen doesn't get too stressed down the stretch. It goes against their model to acquire any big names, so it isn't likely they will make a play on any, but they definitely have the young depth to go after a few key role players.
Atlanta Braves
I already have a full entry planned on the state of the Braves, but the long and short of it is the team needs depth: both on the bench and in the bullpen. The club has already said they are set with starting pitchers, namely the youngters Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes, so don't expect them to go after Greg Maddux if the Padres make him available. They are going to need a quality bat to take at least some of the strain off Brandon Jones in left, another reliable arm for the bullpen -- which has already seem five relievers make over thirty appearances -- and a bat or two for the bench would be nice. But, all of this will be tackled very soon with a Braves-centric entry.
Florida Marlins
The NL East is a lot like the AL Central right now, with a number of teams still having a very good shot at taking the division, and the Marlins perfectly mirror the situation the Twins are in. Only, the Marlins make their living with big bats whereas the Twins do their thing with pitching and timely hitting. The Marlins, of course, don't have any space financially to pick up any type of contract over a couple million, so any deal they strike is going to have to favor their budget. It isn't going to be easy for them to acquire a veteran starter in a situation like that, so they could end up in a situation where they start to fade before the deadline even arrives.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are surprisingly in a good situation to make a run at this point, the only real thing they need right now is a starter to compliment Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan in the rotation. The problem they could run into is their need to conserve money in order to pay the type of money Prince Fielder is going to command come season's end. It all depends on where they stand in the coming weeks. If they can keep pace with the Cardinals, they will most likely start looking for an arm; if not, they could dump a few contracts.
As I said, expect the next entry to be a state of the organization report on the Braves. May be tomorrow evening or sometime Monday afternoon, but I'll have it up soon.
NL Sellers & Who's Available
As the second part of my look at who is selling this trade season, let's take a look at the teams in the National League who would be best suited dumping some players for some younger talent.
New York Mets
Endy Chavez, OF - $1.8M, FA after '09
Marlon Anderson, IF/LF - $1.05M, FA after '09
Luis Castillo, 2B - $6M, FA after '11
Damion Easley, IF - $0.95M, Fa after '08
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP - $3.6M, FA after '09
Aaron Heilman, RHP - $1.2M, arbitration eligible
Maybe
Carlos Delgado, 1B - $16M, FA after '09, team option for '09
Billy Wagner, LHP - $10.5M, FA after '10, team option for '10, full no-trade clause
Oliver Perez, LHP - $5M, FA after '08
Washington Nationals
Paul Lo Duca, C - $5M, FA after '08
Aaron Boone, 1B - $1M, FA after '08
Ronnie Belliard, IF - $1.6M, FA after '09
Odalis Perez, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08
Felipe Lopez, IF - $4.9M, FA after '08
Cristian Guzman, SS - $4.2M, FA after '08
Maybe
Chad Cordero, RHP - $6.2M, arbitration eligible
Houston Astros
Geoff Blum, IF - $1.1M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Mark Loretta, 2B- $2.75M, FA after '08
Darin Erstad, 1B/OF - $1M, FA after '08
Ty Wiggington, IF - $4.35M, FA after '08
Brian Moehler, RHP - $0.5M, FA after '08
Doug Brocail, RHP - $2.5M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Bay, OF - $5.75M, FA after '09
Jason Michaels, OF - $4.25M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Xavier Nady, OF - $3.35M, arbitration eligible
Damaso Marte, LHP - $4.7M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Cincinnati Reds
David Ross, C - $2.525M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Alex Gonzalez, SS - $4.625M, FA after '09, mutual option for '10
Corey Patterson, OF - $3M, FA after '08
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP - $3M, FA after '08
Josh Fogg, RHP - $1M, FA after '08
David Weathers, RHP - $2.75M, FA after '08
Maybe
Bronson Arroyo, RHP - $3.95M, FA after '10, club option for '11
Ken Griffey Jr., RF - $12.5M, club option for '09
Adam Dunn, LF - $13M, FA after '08, limited trade clause
San Francisco Giants
Randy Winn, OF - $8M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Ray Durham, 2B - $7.5M, FA after '08
Rich Aurilia, 1B - $4.5M, FA after '08
San Diego Padres
Michael Barrett, C - $3.5M, FA after '08
Shawn Estes, LHP - $0.55M, FA after '08
Tony Clark, 1B - $0.9M, FA after '08
Maybe
Greg Maddux, RHP - $10M, FA after '08, no-trade protection
Brian Giles, OF - $9M, team option for '09, limited no-trade clause
Randy Wolf, LHP - $4.75M, FA after '08
Dave Roberts, OF - $6.5M, FA after '09
Colorado Rockies
Scott Podsednik, OF - $0.75M, FA after '08
Matt Herges, RHP - $2.5M, club option for '09
Brian Fuentes, LHP - $5.05M, FA after '08
Glendon Rusch, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08
New York Mets
Endy Chavez, OF - $1.8M, FA after '09
Marlon Anderson, IF/LF - $1.05M, FA after '09
Luis Castillo, 2B - $6M, FA after '11
Damion Easley, IF - $0.95M, Fa after '08
Scott Schoeneweis, LHP - $3.6M, FA after '09
Aaron Heilman, RHP - $1.2M, arbitration eligible
Maybe
Carlos Delgado, 1B - $16M, FA after '09, team option for '09
Billy Wagner, LHP - $10.5M, FA after '10, team option for '10, full no-trade clause
Oliver Perez, LHP - $5M, FA after '08
Washington Nationals
Paul Lo Duca, C - $5M, FA after '08
Aaron Boone, 1B - $1M, FA after '08
Ronnie Belliard, IF - $1.6M, FA after '09
Odalis Perez, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08
Felipe Lopez, IF - $4.9M, FA after '08
Cristian Guzman, SS - $4.2M, FA after '08
Maybe
Chad Cordero, RHP - $6.2M, arbitration eligible
Houston Astros
Geoff Blum, IF - $1.1M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Mark Loretta, 2B- $2.75M, FA after '08
Darin Erstad, 1B/OF - $1M, FA after '08
Ty Wiggington, IF - $4.35M, FA after '08
Brian Moehler, RHP - $0.5M, FA after '08
Doug Brocail, RHP - $2.5M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Bay, OF - $5.75M, FA after '09
Jason Michaels, OF - $4.25M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Xavier Nady, OF - $3.35M, arbitration eligible
Damaso Marte, LHP - $4.7M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Cincinnati Reds
David Ross, C - $2.525M, FA after '08, club option for '09
Alex Gonzalez, SS - $4.625M, FA after '09, mutual option for '10
Corey Patterson, OF - $3M, FA after '08
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP - $3M, FA after '08
Josh Fogg, RHP - $1M, FA after '08
David Weathers, RHP - $2.75M, FA after '08
Maybe
Bronson Arroyo, RHP - $3.95M, FA after '10, club option for '11
Ken Griffey Jr., RF - $12.5M, club option for '09
Adam Dunn, LF - $13M, FA after '08, limited trade clause
San Francisco Giants
Randy Winn, OF - $8M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Ray Durham, 2B - $7.5M, FA after '08
Rich Aurilia, 1B - $4.5M, FA after '08
San Diego Padres
Michael Barrett, C - $3.5M, FA after '08
Shawn Estes, LHP - $0.55M, FA after '08
Tony Clark, 1B - $0.9M, FA after '08
Maybe
Greg Maddux, RHP - $10M, FA after '08, no-trade protection
Brian Giles, OF - $9M, team option for '09, limited no-trade clause
Randy Wolf, LHP - $4.75M, FA after '08
Dave Roberts, OF - $6.5M, FA after '09
Colorado Rockies
Scott Podsednik, OF - $0.75M, FA after '08
Matt Herges, RHP - $2.5M, club option for '09
Brian Fuentes, LHP - $5.05M, FA after '08
Glendon Rusch, LHP - $0.85M, FA after '08
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Power Rankings - 06/26/08
| Rank | Move | Team | W-L |
| (1) | --- | Boston Red Sox | 49-32 |
| (2) | --- | Chicago Cubs | 49-29 |
| (3) | +3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 46-31 |
| (4) | -1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 43-36 |
| (5) | +3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 45-34 |
| (6) | -1 | Los Angeles Angels | 48-31 |
| (7) | -3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 40-39 |
| (8) | +2 | Chicago White Sox | 42-35 |
| (9) | +2 | Minnesota Twins | 42-36 |
| (10) | -3 | Florida Marlins | 40-37 |
| (11) | -2 | Oakland Athletics | 42-35 |
| (12) | --- | New York Yankees | 42-36 |
| (13) | +4 | Milwaukee Brewers | 43-35 |
| (14) | +5 | Detroit Tigers | 37-40 |
| (15) | +3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36-41 |
| (16) | -1 | Texas Rangers | 40-39 |
| (17) | +4 | Cleveland Indians | 35-43 |
| (18) | -5 | Cincinnati Reds | 36-43 |
| (19) | -5 | Atlanta Braves | 39-41 |
| (20) | --- | New York Mets | 38-39 |
| (21) | -5 | Houston Astros | 36-42 |
| (22) | +1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37-41 |
| (23) | +3 | Baltimore Orioles | 39-37 |
| (24) | -2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 37-42 |
| (25) | --- | San Francisco Giants | 34-44 |
| (26) | -2 | San Diego Padres | 32-47 |
| (27) | +1 | Kansas City Royals | 36-43 |
| (28) | +1 | Colorado Rockies | 32-47 |
| (29) | -2 | Washington Nationals | 31-49 |
| (30) | --- | Seattle Mariners | 28-50 |
AL Sellers & Who's Available
With the trade deadline a little over a month away, I've decided to take a look at the teams which are ready to call it a season and start dealing away some unneeded pieces in hopes of stocking up for the future.
First up, the American League.
Right now, the teams which seem to be packing it up and looking forward to next season are Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle and Texas, so let's take a look at their expendable pieces, along with the players who may be available for the right price.
Baltimore Orioles
Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF - $8M, FA after '09
Kevin Millar, 1B - $2.75M, FA after '08
Brian Roberts, 2B - $6.3M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Jay Payton, OF - $5M, FA after '08
Chad Bradford, RHP - $3.5M, FA after '09
Jaime Walker, LHP - $4.5M, FA after '09
Maybe:
Mevlin Mora, 3B - $7.8M, FA after '09, full no-trade clause
Ramon Hernandez, C - $7.5M, FA after '09 with club option for '10
Toronto Blue Jays
Lyle Overbay, 1B - $5.8M, FA after '10
Matt Stairs, OF - $2.25M, FA after '09
Brad Wilkerson, OF - $3M, FA after '08, Seattle pays majority
Kevin Mench, OF - $0.6M, FA after '08
Maybe:
A.J. Burnett, RHP - $12M, FA after '10, player option after '08, limited no-trade clause
Shannon Stewart, OF - $1.5M, FA after '08, currently injured
Kansas City Royals
Mark Grudzielanek - 2B, $4.5M, FA after '08
Ron Mahay, LHP - $4M, FA after '09
Joel Peralta, RHP - $0.45M, FA after '08
Seattle Mariners
Richie Sexson, 1B - $14M, FA after '08
Raul Ibanez, OF - $5.5M, FA after '08
Jose Vidro, 1B - $8.5M, FA after '08, limited no-trade clause
Miguel Cairo, 1B/2B - $0.85M, FA after '08
Jarrod Washburn, LHP - $9.85M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Willie Bloomquist, IF/OF - $0.95M, FA after '08
Miguel Batista, RHP - $9M, FA after '09
Arthur Rhodes, LHP - $0.38M, FA after '08
Maybe
Erik Bedard, LHP - $7M, arbitration elgible
Ichiro Suzuki, OF - $17M, FA after '12, limited no-trade clause
Adrian Beltre, 3B - $12M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Texas Rangers
Eddie Guardado, LHP - $2M, FA after '08
Marlon Byrd, OF - $1.8M, FA after '08
Milton Bradley, OF - $5.25M, FA after '08
Jason Jennings, RHP - $4M, FA after '08
Frank Catalanotto, OF/2B - $4M, FA after '09, club option for '10
Maybe
Kevin Millwood, RHP - $8.5M, FA after '10, limited no-trade clause
Vicente Padilla, RHP - $11M, FA after '09, club option for '10
National League coming soon, with a master list to follow shortly thereafter.
First up, the American League.
Right now, the teams which seem to be packing it up and looking forward to next season are Baltimore, Toronto, Kansas City, Seattle and Texas, so let's take a look at their expendable pieces, along with the players who may be available for the right price.
Baltimore Orioles
Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF - $8M, FA after '09
Kevin Millar, 1B - $2.75M, FA after '08
Brian Roberts, 2B - $6.3M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Jay Payton, OF - $5M, FA after '08
Chad Bradford, RHP - $3.5M, FA after '09
Jaime Walker, LHP - $4.5M, FA after '09
Maybe:
Mevlin Mora, 3B - $7.8M, FA after '09, full no-trade clause
Ramon Hernandez, C - $7.5M, FA after '09 with club option for '10
Toronto Blue Jays
Lyle Overbay, 1B - $5.8M, FA after '10
Matt Stairs, OF - $2.25M, FA after '09
Brad Wilkerson, OF - $3M, FA after '08, Seattle pays majority
Kevin Mench, OF - $0.6M, FA after '08
Maybe:
A.J. Burnett, RHP - $12M, FA after '10, player option after '08, limited no-trade clause
Shannon Stewart, OF - $1.5M, FA after '08, currently injured
Kansas City Royals
Mark Grudzielanek - 2B, $4.5M, FA after '08
Ron Mahay, LHP - $4M, FA after '09
Joel Peralta, RHP - $0.45M, FA after '08
Seattle Mariners
Richie Sexson, 1B - $14M, FA after '08
Raul Ibanez, OF - $5.5M, FA after '08
Jose Vidro, 1B - $8.5M, FA after '08, limited no-trade clause
Miguel Cairo, 1B/2B - $0.85M, FA after '08
Jarrod Washburn, LHP - $9.85M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Willie Bloomquist, IF/OF - $0.95M, FA after '08
Miguel Batista, RHP - $9M, FA after '09
Arthur Rhodes, LHP - $0.38M, FA after '08
Maybe
Erik Bedard, LHP - $7M, arbitration elgible
Ichiro Suzuki, OF - $17M, FA after '12, limited no-trade clause
Adrian Beltre, 3B - $12M, FA after '09, limited no-trade clause
Texas Rangers
Eddie Guardado, LHP - $2M, FA after '08
Marlon Byrd, OF - $1.8M, FA after '08
Milton Bradley, OF - $5.25M, FA after '08
Jason Jennings, RHP - $4M, FA after '08
Frank Catalanotto, OF/2B - $4M, FA after '09, club option for '10
Maybe
Kevin Millwood, RHP - $8.5M, FA after '10, limited no-trade clause
Vicente Padilla, RHP - $11M, FA after '09, club option for '10
National League coming soon, with a master list to follow shortly thereafter.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
World Series Best-Fit
Once again, my desire to aimlessly research the useless and mundane has taken over.
This subject this time around is trying to predict the World Series favorite for the 2008 season based on the tendencies of the past thirteen World Series champs -- or those which have won it all during the Wildcard era.
And, yes, I completely realize that the majority of the time, the Series winner ends up being a team that has all the right pieces already in place and gets hot at the right time, but what does it hurt to start taking an early look at who those teams could be?
So, which stats have I taken a look at?
OPS+ and ERA+: Two easy choices. You can't be one of the best teams in the Majors without being at or around the top in pitching and offense.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Same mindset as above, only with factoring the luck side of things into the equation.
High-Leverage Batting OPS: Because being successful in clutch situations is the name of the game when it comes to getting things done in September and October. Pitching may win championships, but timely hitting trumps it everytime.
Starting Pitchers Innings Per Start: A team is only as good as it's starting pitching allows it to be. If the starters are getting knocked out of the game early, not only does that put a great deal of pressute on the offense to perform, but it can kill a bullpen in a playoff series.
Starting Pitchers Hits+Walks Per Innings: Starters can work deep into the game, but it doesn't really mean much unless they are being effective in doing so.
Bullpen Strikeouts Per 9 Innings: Much like with starters being able to work deep into the game, the bullpen has to be able to come in and take over control of the game.
Now that we've narrowed the stats down, how did I come about the teams and how they are determined?
Well, I first started by limiting the scope to teams that were currently within striking distance of a playoff spot -- meaning they were within six games of either their division leader or the wildcard leader in their respective league. This cut down the number to sixteen teams: Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, both Chicago teams, Florida, both Los Angeles teams, Milwaukee, Minnesota, both New York teams, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.
From there, I cut that list down to the seven teams which fit within the range of the above categories determined by the research on the previous thirteen WS champs. If a team's stats fell below any of those thirteen teams in any of the categories, they were eliminated from the short list. So, that left me with the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Phillies, Cubs and Cardinals.
And, finally, I took those final seven teams and compared their numbers to the average for the World Series champs for the Wildcard era. I simply divided the team's stats by the average for the champions and got a percentage. Then I got an average on those seven percentages.
The best fit team?
As surprising as it may be, at this point in the season, it's the Chicago White Sox.
Here's how the averages ended up:
Chicago White Sox - 105.16%
Chicago Cubs - 104.41%
Boston Red Sox - 102.03%
Philadelphia Phillies - 100.81%
Tampa Bay Rays - 98.67%
St. Louis Cardinals - 96.09%
This subject this time around is trying to predict the World Series favorite for the 2008 season based on the tendencies of the past thirteen World Series champs -- or those which have won it all during the Wildcard era.
And, yes, I completely realize that the majority of the time, the Series winner ends up being a team that has all the right pieces already in place and gets hot at the right time, but what does it hurt to start taking an early look at who those teams could be?
So, which stats have I taken a look at?
OPS+ and ERA+: Two easy choices. You can't be one of the best teams in the Majors without being at or around the top in pitching and offense.
Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Same mindset as above, only with factoring the luck side of things into the equation.
High-Leverage Batting OPS: Because being successful in clutch situations is the name of the game when it comes to getting things done in September and October. Pitching may win championships, but timely hitting trumps it everytime.
Starting Pitchers Innings Per Start: A team is only as good as it's starting pitching allows it to be. If the starters are getting knocked out of the game early, not only does that put a great deal of pressute on the offense to perform, but it can kill a bullpen in a playoff series.
Starting Pitchers Hits+Walks Per Innings: Starters can work deep into the game, but it doesn't really mean much unless they are being effective in doing so.
Bullpen Strikeouts Per 9 Innings: Much like with starters being able to work deep into the game, the bullpen has to be able to come in and take over control of the game.
Now that we've narrowed the stats down, how did I come about the teams and how they are determined?
Well, I first started by limiting the scope to teams that were currently within striking distance of a playoff spot -- meaning they were within six games of either their division leader or the wildcard leader in their respective league. This cut down the number to sixteen teams: Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, both Chicago teams, Florida, both Los Angeles teams, Milwaukee, Minnesota, both New York teams, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.
From there, I cut that list down to the seven teams which fit within the range of the above categories determined by the research on the previous thirteen WS champs. If a team's stats fell below any of those thirteen teams in any of the categories, they were eliminated from the short list. So, that left me with the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Phillies, Cubs and Cardinals.
And, finally, I took those final seven teams and compared their numbers to the average for the World Series champs for the Wildcard era. I simply divided the team's stats by the average for the champions and got a percentage. Then I got an average on those seven percentages.
The best fit team?
As surprising as it may be, at this point in the season, it's the Chicago White Sox.
Here's how the averages ended up:
Chicago White Sox - 105.16%
Chicago Cubs - 104.41%
Boston Red Sox - 102.03%
Philadelphia Phillies - 100.81%
Tampa Bay Rays - 98.67%
St. Louis Cardinals - 96.09%
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Moving Forward & Falling Behind
As a bit of an extension of the previous article, I've decided to focus on six teams and look at the direction their franchise is headed. Like the title says, some are moving forward, while some are falling behind. Here's a deeper look at each.
Moving Forward
Minnesota Twins: It's amazing how year-after-year the Twins are able to produce a list of players who are essentially no-namers in the baseball big picture, yet somehow manager to at least remain competitive in an AL Central which can get extremely competitive down the stretch. Sure, there are a few superstars left in town -- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan -- but how many casual fans are familiar with the names Jason Kubel, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker? It's amazing how a pitching staff that has been without it's young phenom (Francisco Liriano) for two years now and is relying on Livan Hernandez to anchor the rotation is anywhere near the .500 mark. But they continue to fight on in Minnesota. Even with an offense that ranks deadlast in the Majors in power, players like Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and Alexi Castilla around, the club is going to have no problems looking ahead to the years to come. Only stopgap starters Mike Lamb and Adam Everett are over 30, with all the key pieces being 27 or younger (Mauer, Morneau, Young, Gomez, Kubel, Castilla, Denard Span). Factor in five young starting pitchers currently in the bigs -- Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey -- and it's easy to see how this Twins team could turn into something special. Sure, they may not get the attention and coverage the Rays have over the past season-plus, but all the pieces are there for them to make the jump very soon.
Florida Marlins: Much like the Twins, the Marlins are also veterans to the trade-develop-win game. Even with sending the last two pieces of their previous World Series championship team to Detroit in the offseason, the Marlins are currently six games over .500, and certainly in contention for the NL East crown, which looks to be a two-team race at this point. And, still, the Marlins have five of the best, young power bats the game has to offer in their lineup on a daily basis -- Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross. And to add to those names, they also currently have Dallas McPherson (who, despite never truly breaking out with the Angles, is only 27 and still has a career isoSLG over .200 and an OPS+ of 96 in almost 400 career plate appearances), outfielders Jai Miller and Brett Carroll (both of which bring speed, pop and a good eye) all to go along with 21 year old uber-prospect Cameron Maybin. Throw in players like Josh Willingham and Jorge Cantu, who are still very serviceable at the ML-level, and you have an offense rich with under-30 depth. Their pitching staff may not have the big names of the offense, but that's not to say there isn't young talent to be seen. We all know how good Andrew Miller can be, it's just a matter of growing into that ability. And for once, troubled lefty Scott Olsen seems to have finally pulled it all together. Pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Rick VandenHurk (despite his many struggles, he's still only 23) aren't to be forgotten either. With those starters turning the game over to Taylor Tankersley, Logan Kensing, renyel Pinto and Kevin Gregg, other offenses can be expected to struggle.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team that has taken a much different approach than the Marlins or Twins. While those two teams have traded proven stars for a wealth of young talent over the years, the Reds have acquired all their talent via great scouting. While Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Joey Votto were early round selections in the draft, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger, Aaron Harang and Jared Burton were all acquired for almost nothing. The only player out of their youth movement which cost them a household name was Edinson Volquez, which may have left the Reds without Josh Hamilton, but also brought them talented reliever Danny Herrera. There aren't many people who expect this team to win now, honestly, they are at least a season away from making a move in the NL Central, but with the core of young talent present, there isn't any reason to doubt they will be contenders for years to come. Even the veteran players the Reds currently have -- Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg, Javier Valentin, Jerry Hairston, Andy Phillips, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers and Josh Fogg -- could go a long way at the trade deadline in suring up the club's minor league system and adding a lot of depth to a team that already has all the talent you could want. With Phillips, Bruce and Votto leading the offense and a potential rotation of Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey and Daryl Thompson, this team is poised to do some serious damage. Even if Dusty Baker remains their manager.
Falling Behind
New York Mets: The Mets are nothing short of an absolute mess. They have no idea where they are headed, they've mortgaged off their future in a series of moves which haven't proven as beneficial as hoped and their front office looks completely lost. Willie Randolph ended up being the fall guy for a team that was so horribly put together, it's no wonder the end result has been the current disaster. Even with the cornerstones of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran all performing as expected and the Brian Schneider/Ryan Church trade looking to be a success, the Mets lack of young, talented depth is what has ultimately been their downfall. When you are trying to win a division, having the names like Marlon Anderson, Fernando Tatis, Trot Nixon, Damion Easley, Brady Clark and Abraham Nunez as bench players probably isn't the best idea. It's nice to have a few key veterans here and there, but when your average team age is over 30, that's not the way you want to go. Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Brian Bannister, Mike Jacobs, Jae Weong Seo, Jeff Keppinger, Xavier Nady, Victor Diaz, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber and Dan Wheeler are just a handful of the players the Mets have shipped away for stopgap solutions in hopes of winning a division title. Sure, the Santana trade ended up costing the Mets a lot less than anyone originally expected (with the names Ellsbury, Cano and others being floated around) but in it, the Mets lost the last two of the last big-name prospects they had. The one remaining saving grace, outfielder Fernando Martinez, isn't even twenty yet, and is probably still twelve months away from the Majors. Essentially everyone else on their MiL ballclubs are nothing more than your 28-and-over roster fillers. Their pitching staff is even worse. Sure, Santana is locked up for a few years, but outside of John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, there is no one on the horizon to make Mets fans even the slightest bit excited. At least there's the possibility of players like Oliver Perez, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis bringing at least some fringe prospects which could add a little bit of depth.
Seattle Mariners: The only team that could be more a trainwreck than the Mets. There's King Felix, and well, not much else. Even though both are now in their thirties and seemingly on the back end of their careers, Ichiro and Johjima aren't likely to go anywhere because of the Japanese connection with Nintendo, who owns the team. And then there are Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who have been absolute busts and are costing the team more than the entire payroll of the Marlins. And then there is Erik Bedard, who hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as the M's had hoped, and cost them one of the club's biggest prospects of the past decade in Adam Jones, closer-in-waiting George Sherrill and top five prospect, pitcher Chris Tillman. With Jones out of the picture, there isn't an ample supply of young talent to go around. Sure, there are power-hitting youngsters like Wladimir Balentien, but both have struggled in the limited time they have seen this season. That's not to say both are going to be busts, but with Ichiro's move back to right and Johjima and Sexson taking up Clement's positions, it doesn't seem like the organization is in a rush to get them to the Majors. Two players who could certainly help in bolstering the depth down on the farm are Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro, both of which are over thirty and still capable of helping out a contender down the stretch. The future of the pitching staff is what should be the biggest cause for concern -- with Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn being key pieces to the starting rotation -- and closer J.J. Putz seeing his ERA+ drop down to 76. There is at least some hope with relievers Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who have been lights out, but again, there isn't much else available on the horizon. With GM Bill Bavasi finally being shown the door, and manager John McLaren also being a mercy kill, maybe there is some hope for the future, but it isn't gonna be an easy or short path.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are another team that is very old and lacking in young depth. Only Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are starters under 30 years old. And of those who are over 30, none are young enough to still be a key contributor somewhere. With players like Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs all taking up trips to the plate, obviously there isn't much room to even fit in youth in, even if they had it. Even with Adam Lind and Curtis Thigpen ready and available, they are still having to fight to crack the lineup on a team which currently sits in last place in the competitive AL East. The starting pitching actually shows a little promise, with young arms in Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch, all of which are 26 or younger. The problem with the rest of the rotation is A.J. Burnett can't keep himself healthy and no one really knows how much longer Roy Halladay will be able to hold up after logging over 1500 innings before his 30th birthday. While the bullpen has been effective, there are a lot of over-30 arms, along with oft-injured closer B.J. Ryan. So, while the other teams on this list may be destined for a few years of problems to come, the Blue Jays just have to sure up their lineup and reload with some younger guys and get their average age down in the 26 to 27 range. There may not be a lot of young arms in the system, but those that are currently with the big club have a lot of potential and have proven themselves to be very effective thus far.
Moving Forward
Minnesota Twins: It's amazing how year-after-year the Twins are able to produce a list of players who are essentially no-namers in the baseball big picture, yet somehow manager to at least remain competitive in an AL Central which can get extremely competitive down the stretch. Sure, there are a few superstars left in town -- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan -- but how many casual fans are familiar with the names Jason Kubel, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker? It's amazing how a pitching staff that has been without it's young phenom (Francisco Liriano) for two years now and is relying on Livan Hernandez to anchor the rotation is anywhere near the .500 mark. But they continue to fight on in Minnesota. Even with an offense that ranks deadlast in the Majors in power, players like Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and Alexi Castilla around, the club is going to have no problems looking ahead to the years to come. Only stopgap starters Mike Lamb and Adam Everett are over 30, with all the key pieces being 27 or younger (Mauer, Morneau, Young, Gomez, Kubel, Castilla, Denard Span). Factor in five young starting pitchers currently in the bigs -- Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey -- and it's easy to see how this Twins team could turn into something special. Sure, they may not get the attention and coverage the Rays have over the past season-plus, but all the pieces are there for them to make the jump very soon.
Florida Marlins: Much like the Twins, the Marlins are also veterans to the trade-develop-win game. Even with sending the last two pieces of their previous World Series championship team to Detroit in the offseason, the Marlins are currently six games over .500, and certainly in contention for the NL East crown, which looks to be a two-team race at this point. And, still, the Marlins have five of the best, young power bats the game has to offer in their lineup on a daily basis -- Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross. And to add to those names, they also currently have Dallas McPherson (who, despite never truly breaking out with the Angles, is only 27 and still has a career isoSLG over .200 and an OPS+ of 96 in almost 400 career plate appearances), outfielders Jai Miller and Brett Carroll (both of which bring speed, pop and a good eye) all to go along with 21 year old uber-prospect Cameron Maybin. Throw in players like Josh Willingham and Jorge Cantu, who are still very serviceable at the ML-level, and you have an offense rich with under-30 depth. Their pitching staff may not have the big names of the offense, but that's not to say there isn't young talent to be seen. We all know how good Andrew Miller can be, it's just a matter of growing into that ability. And for once, troubled lefty Scott Olsen seems to have finally pulled it all together. Pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Rick VandenHurk (despite his many struggles, he's still only 23) aren't to be forgotten either. With those starters turning the game over to Taylor Tankersley, Logan Kensing, renyel Pinto and Kevin Gregg, other offenses can be expected to struggle.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team that has taken a much different approach than the Marlins or Twins. While those two teams have traded proven stars for a wealth of young talent over the years, the Reds have acquired all their talent via great scouting. While Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Joey Votto were early round selections in the draft, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger, Aaron Harang and Jared Burton were all acquired for almost nothing. The only player out of their youth movement which cost them a household name was Edinson Volquez, which may have left the Reds without Josh Hamilton, but also brought them talented reliever Danny Herrera. There aren't many people who expect this team to win now, honestly, they are at least a season away from making a move in the NL Central, but with the core of young talent present, there isn't any reason to doubt they will be contenders for years to come. Even the veteran players the Reds currently have -- Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg, Javier Valentin, Jerry Hairston, Andy Phillips, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers and Josh Fogg -- could go a long way at the trade deadline in suring up the club's minor league system and adding a lot of depth to a team that already has all the talent you could want. With Phillips, Bruce and Votto leading the offense and a potential rotation of Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey and Daryl Thompson, this team is poised to do some serious damage. Even if Dusty Baker remains their manager.
Falling Behind
New York Mets: The Mets are nothing short of an absolute mess. They have no idea where they are headed, they've mortgaged off their future in a series of moves which haven't proven as beneficial as hoped and their front office looks completely lost. Willie Randolph ended up being the fall guy for a team that was so horribly put together, it's no wonder the end result has been the current disaster. Even with the cornerstones of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran all performing as expected and the Brian Schneider/Ryan Church trade looking to be a success, the Mets lack of young, talented depth is what has ultimately been their downfall. When you are trying to win a division, having the names like Marlon Anderson, Fernando Tatis, Trot Nixon, Damion Easley, Brady Clark and Abraham Nunez as bench players probably isn't the best idea. It's nice to have a few key veterans here and there, but when your average team age is over 30, that's not the way you want to go. Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Brian Bannister, Mike Jacobs, Jae Weong Seo, Jeff Keppinger, Xavier Nady, Victor Diaz, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber and Dan Wheeler are just a handful of the players the Mets have shipped away for stopgap solutions in hopes of winning a division title. Sure, the Santana trade ended up costing the Mets a lot less than anyone originally expected (with the names Ellsbury, Cano and others being floated around) but in it, the Mets lost the last two of the last big-name prospects they had. The one remaining saving grace, outfielder Fernando Martinez, isn't even twenty yet, and is probably still twelve months away from the Majors. Essentially everyone else on their MiL ballclubs are nothing more than your 28-and-over roster fillers. Their pitching staff is even worse. Sure, Santana is locked up for a few years, but outside of John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, there is no one on the horizon to make Mets fans even the slightest bit excited. At least there's the possibility of players like Oliver Perez, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis bringing at least some fringe prospects which could add a little bit of depth.
Seattle Mariners: The only team that could be more a trainwreck than the Mets. There's King Felix, and well, not much else. Even though both are now in their thirties and seemingly on the back end of their careers, Ichiro and Johjima aren't likely to go anywhere because of the Japanese connection with Nintendo, who owns the team. And then there are Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who have been absolute busts and are costing the team more than the entire payroll of the Marlins. And then there is Erik Bedard, who hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as the M's had hoped, and cost them one of the club's biggest prospects of the past decade in Adam Jones, closer-in-waiting George Sherrill and top five prospect, pitcher Chris Tillman. With Jones out of the picture, there isn't an ample supply of young talent to go around. Sure, there are power-hitting youngsters like Wladimir Balentien, but both have struggled in the limited time they have seen this season. That's not to say both are going to be busts, but with Ichiro's move back to right and Johjima and Sexson taking up Clement's positions, it doesn't seem like the organization is in a rush to get them to the Majors. Two players who could certainly help in bolstering the depth down on the farm are Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro, both of which are over thirty and still capable of helping out a contender down the stretch. The future of the pitching staff is what should be the biggest cause for concern -- with Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn being key pieces to the starting rotation -- and closer J.J. Putz seeing his ERA+ drop down to 76. There is at least some hope with relievers Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who have been lights out, but again, there isn't much else available on the horizon. With GM Bill Bavasi finally being shown the door, and manager John McLaren also being a mercy kill, maybe there is some hope for the future, but it isn't gonna be an easy or short path.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are another team that is very old and lacking in young depth. Only Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are starters under 30 years old. And of those who are over 30, none are young enough to still be a key contributor somewhere. With players like Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs all taking up trips to the plate, obviously there isn't much room to even fit in youth in, even if they had it. Even with Adam Lind and Curtis Thigpen ready and available, they are still having to fight to crack the lineup on a team which currently sits in last place in the competitive AL East. The starting pitching actually shows a little promise, with young arms in Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch, all of which are 26 or younger. The problem with the rest of the rotation is A.J. Burnett can't keep himself healthy and no one really knows how much longer Roy Halladay will be able to hold up after logging over 1500 innings before his 30th birthday. While the bullpen has been effective, there are a lot of over-30 arms, along with oft-injured closer B.J. Ryan. So, while the other teams on this list may be destined for a few years of problems to come, the Blue Jays just have to sure up their lineup and reload with some younger guys and get their average age down in the 26 to 27 range. There may not be a lot of young arms in the system, but those that are currently with the big club have a lot of potential and have proven themselves to be very effective thus far.
Power Rankings -- 06/19/08
| Rank | Move | Team | W-L |
| (1) | --- | Boston Red Sox | 46-29 |
| (2) | --- | Chicago Cubs | 45-27 |
| (3) | --- | Philadelphia Phillies | 42-32 |
| (4) | +1 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 38-34 |
| (5) | +1 | Los Angeles Angels | 43-30 |
| (6) | -2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 42-39 |
| (7) | +1 | Florida Marlins | 39-33 |
| (8) | +1 | St. Louis Cardinals | 42-31 |
| (9) | +2 | Oakland Athletics | 39-32 |
| (10) | -1 | Chicago White Sox | 40-31 |
| (11) | -1 | Minnesota Twins | 36-36 |
| (12) | +2 | New York Yankees | 39-33 |
| (13) | +4 | Cincinnati Reds | 33-40 |
| (14) | +2 | Atlanta Braves | 36-37 |
| (15) | +4 | Texas Rangers | 36-37 |
| (16) | -4 | Houston Astros | 33-39 |
| (17) | +5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 38-33 |
| (18) | -5 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 33-38 |
| (19) | +5 | Detroit Tigers | 34-38 |
| (20) | -5 | New York Mets | 35-36 |
| (21) | -3 | Cleveland Indians | 33-39 |
| (22) | -2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 35-38 |
| (23) | --- | Pittsburgh Pirates | 34-38 |
| (24) | +2 | San Diego Padres | 31-42 |
| (25) | --- | San Francisco Giants | 31-42 |
| (26) | -5 | Baltimore Orioles | 36-34 |
| (27) | --- | Washington Nationals | 29-44 |
| (28) | +1 | Kansas City Royals | 30-42 |
| (29) | +1 | Colorado Rockies | 30-42 |
| (30) | -2 | Seattle Mariners | 25-47 |
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Who's Who?
So, since I'm delaying this week's power rankings until later in the week, let's take a different approach to looking at the teams this weekend. Instead of listing them one through thirty, I'vesplit them up into thirteen different categories to show where the teams currently stand.
Legit Contenders: Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
These three teams have everything it takes to win the World Series: highly dangerous offenses, at least one legit ace, solid arms rounding out the rotation, stable bullpens and lights-out closers. Each has suffered a significant injury at some point this season -- Boston is currently dealing with the lack of David Ortiz's bat, the Cubs are without Alfonso Soriano's bat for the second time and the Phillies have seen Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino all suffer through a stint on the disabled list. But through it all, these teams haven't skipped a beat, having beaten all the teams that matter -- those within their own division. Barring some sort of catastrophic collapse, you would be very safe putting your money down on any of these three teams winning the Series.
Darkhorse: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are a mystery team at this point. The depth their offense has, specifically in the outfield is absolutely filthy; and the addition of Jon Garland has been enough to cover the loss of Kelvim Escobar for the season. The surprising thing has been their offense is on pace to score less than 700 runs in a division that isn't exactly lighting up the league with pitching dominance. Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews struggles haven't helped matters any, but with Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins all carrying their weight, they could become a very dangerous team if they can get everyone clicking on all cylinders.
Too Young?: Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm not saying these two teams are too young to go the distance, just they may still be a season away from entering the upper echelon. Sure, the D'backs unfortunately ran into the juggernaut that was last season's Rockies in the playoffs, but they still posted a pythagorean record under .500 for the season. The good news is this year's offense has gelled much better than last season's, even with the struggles of Eric Byrnes and their bench. Their true strength lies in the pitching staff, however, which is as strong top-to-bottom as any in baseball. The Rays are at a point this season where Arizona was last year. They are very young, just starting to get the feel for playing with each other every day, and are probably at least a year or two away from being able to be legit contenders to Boston and the AL East crown. If James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza can stay healthy and Dan Wheeler can emerge into the closer everyone expects him to be, it may not matter how long it takes their offense come together, however.
Waiting to Make Their Move: Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians
Both the Indians and Dodgers have been slow out of the gate, but there's no reason to doubt they will be able to put it all together and get on a role that propels them into the top of their division. Even with injuries to Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones, LA has the depth to at least tread water until everyone is healthy and on the same page. Not only that, but should the time come for a deal to be made, they have a number of veterans who can be moved -- Juan Pierre, Garciaparra and Mark Sweeney to name a few. Cleveland just has to wake their bats up, because their pitching depth is just absurd. With the power output from Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez all well below their expectations, it's only a matter of time before those bats explode and they are able to make their move in the very weak AL Central.
Waiting to Fade: St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox and Cardinals are two prime examples of teams who have been playing well over their heads and are destined to fall off the table completely. Sure, Chicago has some really good pitching, but their lineup is aging, their bench is borderline pathetic and any team lead by Ozzie Guillen is always one step away from self-destruction. The Cardinals are a team that could have one of those catastrophic 25-50 runs down the stretch where the wheels just completely fall off. There is no true justification for how they are playing right now, and their hodge-podge approach to their pitching staff is just laughable. I truly feel for any team which has to rely on Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper and Joel Pineiro combining for over half of the club's starts.
No Surprises: Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics
Year-in and year-out, these three franchises just keep on with the same lather-rinse-repeat process... Build-up talent, trade for twice the depth, develop, win baseball games. It doesn't matter who they lose, they somehow manager to at least stay competitive and make life hell for their division-mates. The Marlins lose Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, and are still a force in the NL East. The Twins lose Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, and remain right on the edge of contention in the AL Central. And the Athletics lose Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Shannon Stewart, and keep winning ballgames. It just defies the odds. Every season they restock their farm system without an abundance of ML-ready talent and are still better than almost half the league. The truly scary thing is, we all know the Willis/Cabrera deal with Detroit almost did more to guarantee Florida a World Series in the next five years than the Tigers.
Right in the Middle: Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers
They aren't horrible. They aren't great. They aren't likely to win a division title or wild card. They won't be buying or selling at the trade deadline. There really isn't anything that jumps out about their future, but there present isn't so bad to completely write them off. The bottom line is, they are just sorta there. If Major League baseball were an album, they wouldn't be the radio-friendly singles, nor would they be the staples of the live show the diehard fans demand. They would be the filler tracks that just get lost in the middle of the album, probably never cracking a live setlist.
Not Enough Pitching: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Vicente Padilla. Shawn Chacon. Brian Moehler. Brandon Backe. Sidney Ponson. Jason Jennings. These are the pitchers who aren't Roy Oswalt and Kevin Millwood. It doesn't matter if you have prolific offensive firepower lead by Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton, if you are trotting out those pitchers every other day, you are not going to win games. It's been a problem that has plagued the Rangers for almost a decade, and the Astros since the dynamic duo of Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens left town.
Tough Luck: Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves
One team was an almost unanimous selection to run the table (Detroit) and the other was everyone's darkhorse favorite to win the Series in late March (Atlanta). And here we are, mid-June, and neither team has so much as caught a whiff of first place. Injuries have absolutely decimated both of these clubs. Just look at some of the names which have lost time because of injuries: (DET) Zumaya, Rodney, Willis, Granderson, Sheffield, Bonderman; (ATL) Hampton, Smoltz, Gonzalez, Soriano, Moylan, Glavine, Diaz, Kotsay. Put those fourteen players together on one team, and you've got a World Series contender. Instead, you've got two teams who are doing everything they can to stay afloat and try to make something happen before their season goes up in flames. This was a widely predicted WS matchup as camp broke in late March, but now it's looking more and more like two teams who are going to fight just to make the .500 mark before the season's end.
No Direction: New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets
I've talked endlessly about how the Yankees are a club that completely lacks direction, but the Giants and Mets are almost equally as bad. All three of these clubs have essentially seen their farm systems implode over the past few seasons; be it through one-sided trades or just bad scouting; don't quite know what to do with all the over-the-hill players they are still paying a significant amount of money to; and are generally lost as to what they should do at this point. The Mets have the core of David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes to piece together with John Maine and Santana, but little to nothing else. Everything else they have is skeletons of former elite players, veteran fringe players and the leftover remains of their wrecked minor league system. Sounds a lot like the Yanks. They've got a great core of early-thirties superstars (A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Abreu) to go along with some youngsters who are loaded with potential (Wang, Cano, Chamberlain) but are crippled at this point by the likes of Giambi, Damon, Posada, Mussina and Pettite. As for the Giants, it is going to take them probably at least a decade to recover from the hangover of the Barroid-era. There isn't a team in the Majors who wouldn't give up every prospect they have for Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Brian Wilson, but with Omar Vizquel, Randy Winn, Rich Aurillia, Ray Durham and the crippling contracts of Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, those three young guns aren't going to be much help.
Youthful Experience: Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
The Nationals and Reds both fall under this category for different reasons. Outside of Tampa, the Reds have the best core group of young talent in baseball. With Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez pieced together with Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, there isn't any reason why the Reds shouldn't be a perennial contender for years to come. This years is just going to have to be a throwaway season why the youngsters cut their teeth at the bigs and everyone gets comfortable playing for the managerial incompetent known as Dusty Baker. In Washington, it's just a case of getting a group of young talent comfortable with each other and their own abilities. Almost all of them -- from Ryan Zimmerman to Elijah Dukes to Lastings Milledge to Austin Kearns -- have shown what they can do, it's just a matter of bringing all these personalities together and getting them to mesh. There is also an abundance of fine young arms in the nation's capital, which includes Shawn Hill, John Lannan, Jay Bergmann, Matt Chico and Joel Hanrahan who are all ready to contribute.
The Usual Suspects: Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
Does anything really need to be said here? These three are the anti-everything that Minnesota, Florida and Oakland have become. They are all completely incompetent and incapable of putting a winning product on the field. Even with an outfield of Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the Orioles are still going nowhere in the AL East. The Royals and Pirates are the perfect models for why contraction still may not be the worst idea.
Scraping the Botton: San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies
And here we are, the worst of the worst. Why these three at the end instead of the ones directly above? Well, it is completely expected of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh to take a fat crap in the middle of the diamond every night. Not exactly so with the Padres, Mariners and Rockies. I heavily criticized Seattle and Colorado during the off-season, but the Padres have no reason to be where they currently are. Sure, they play in a park the land mass equivalent of the Sahara Desert, but with a rotation of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf -- all injuries aside -- if you are capable of putting three runs per game on the board, you should be contending. As for Seattle, why they continue to put stock into Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre is anyone's guess. Like I said after the deal was made, Adam Jones meant a hell of a lot more to their offense than Erik Bedard does their pitching staff. At this rate, they'll be lucky to score sixty games, and while their rotation has still crapped the bed, an offense that averages more than four runs per game could still keep them competitive. And then there's Colorado... They weren't that good last season. It's true. They were barely a .500 team in a very weak league last season, but they got hot at the right time. They were ten games under at one point, but as we've all learned, it's just about timing. And getting a botched call at the plate to go your way in game #163 doesn't hurt either. And this year they get absolutely decimated by injuries to every key contributor for that stretch run. Hope you enjoyed it, Colorado, it's gonna be a while before you feel Rocktober again.
Legit Contenders: Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs
These three teams have everything it takes to win the World Series: highly dangerous offenses, at least one legit ace, solid arms rounding out the rotation, stable bullpens and lights-out closers. Each has suffered a significant injury at some point this season -- Boston is currently dealing with the lack of David Ortiz's bat, the Cubs are without Alfonso Soriano's bat for the second time and the Phillies have seen Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino all suffer through a stint on the disabled list. But through it all, these teams haven't skipped a beat, having beaten all the teams that matter -- those within their own division. Barring some sort of catastrophic collapse, you would be very safe putting your money down on any of these three teams winning the Series.
Darkhorse: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are a mystery team at this point. The depth their offense has, specifically in the outfield is absolutely filthy; and the addition of Jon Garland has been enough to cover the loss of Kelvim Escobar for the season. The surprising thing has been their offense is on pace to score less than 700 runs in a division that isn't exactly lighting up the league with pitching dominance. Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews struggles haven't helped matters any, but with Casey Kotchman, Howie Kendrick and Chone Figgins all carrying their weight, they could become a very dangerous team if they can get everyone clicking on all cylinders.
Too Young?: Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm not saying these two teams are too young to go the distance, just they may still be a season away from entering the upper echelon. Sure, the D'backs unfortunately ran into the juggernaut that was last season's Rockies in the playoffs, but they still posted a pythagorean record under .500 for the season. The good news is this year's offense has gelled much better than last season's, even with the struggles of Eric Byrnes and their bench. Their true strength lies in the pitching staff, however, which is as strong top-to-bottom as any in baseball. The Rays are at a point this season where Arizona was last year. They are very young, just starting to get the feel for playing with each other every day, and are probably at least a year or two away from being able to be legit contenders to Boston and the AL East crown. If James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza can stay healthy and Dan Wheeler can emerge into the closer everyone expects him to be, it may not matter how long it takes their offense come together, however.
Waiting to Make Their Move: Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians
Both the Indians and Dodgers have been slow out of the gate, but there's no reason to doubt they will be able to put it all together and get on a role that propels them into the top of their division. Even with injuries to Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Andruw Jones, LA has the depth to at least tread water until everyone is healthy and on the same page. Not only that, but should the time come for a deal to be made, they have a number of veterans who can be moved -- Juan Pierre, Garciaparra and Mark Sweeney to name a few. Cleveland just has to wake their bats up, because their pitching depth is just absurd. With the power output from Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez all well below their expectations, it's only a matter of time before those bats explode and they are able to make their move in the very weak AL Central.
Waiting to Fade: St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox and Cardinals are two prime examples of teams who have been playing well over their heads and are destined to fall off the table completely. Sure, Chicago has some really good pitching, but their lineup is aging, their bench is borderline pathetic and any team lead by Ozzie Guillen is always one step away from self-destruction. The Cardinals are a team that could have one of those catastrophic 25-50 runs down the stretch where the wheels just completely fall off. There is no true justification for how they are playing right now, and their hodge-podge approach to their pitching staff is just laughable. I truly feel for any team which has to rely on Todd Wellemeyer, Braden Looper and Joel Pineiro combining for over half of the club's starts.
No Surprises: Florida Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics
Year-in and year-out, these three franchises just keep on with the same lather-rinse-repeat process... Build-up talent, trade for twice the depth, develop, win baseball games. It doesn't matter who they lose, they somehow manager to at least stay competitive and make life hell for their division-mates. The Marlins lose Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, and are still a force in the NL East. The Twins lose Johan Santana and Torii Hunter, and remain right on the edge of contention in the AL Central. And the Athletics lose Dan Haren, Nick Swisher and Shannon Stewart, and keep winning ballgames. It just defies the odds. Every season they restock their farm system without an abundance of ML-ready talent and are still better than almost half the league. The truly scary thing is, we all know the Willis/Cabrera deal with Detroit almost did more to guarantee Florida a World Series in the next five years than the Tigers.
Right in the Middle: Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers
They aren't horrible. They aren't great. They aren't likely to win a division title or wild card. They won't be buying or selling at the trade deadline. There really isn't anything that jumps out about their future, but there present isn't so bad to completely write them off. The bottom line is, they are just sorta there. If Major League baseball were an album, they wouldn't be the radio-friendly singles, nor would they be the staples of the live show the diehard fans demand. They would be the filler tracks that just get lost in the middle of the album, probably never cracking a live setlist.
Not Enough Pitching: Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
Vicente Padilla. Shawn Chacon. Brian Moehler. Brandon Backe. Sidney Ponson. Jason Jennings. These are the pitchers who aren't Roy Oswalt and Kevin Millwood. It doesn't matter if you have prolific offensive firepower lead by Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton, if you are trotting out those pitchers every other day, you are not going to win games. It's been a problem that has plagued the Rangers for almost a decade, and the Astros since the dynamic duo of Andy Pettite and Roger Clemens left town.
Tough Luck: Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves
One team was an almost unanimous selection to run the table (Detroit) and the other was everyone's darkhorse favorite to win the Series in late March (Atlanta). And here we are, mid-June, and neither team has so much as caught a whiff of first place. Injuries have absolutely decimated both of these clubs. Just look at some of the names which have lost time because of injuries: (DET) Zumaya, Rodney, Willis, Granderson, Sheffield, Bonderman; (ATL) Hampton, Smoltz, Gonzalez, Soriano, Moylan, Glavine, Diaz, Kotsay. Put those fourteen players together on one team, and you've got a World Series contender. Instead, you've got two teams who are doing everything they can to stay afloat and try to make something happen before their season goes up in flames. This was a widely predicted WS matchup as camp broke in late March, but now it's looking more and more like two teams who are going to fight just to make the .500 mark before the season's end.
No Direction: New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets
I've talked endlessly about how the Yankees are a club that completely lacks direction, but the Giants and Mets are almost equally as bad. All three of these clubs have essentially seen their farm systems implode over the past few seasons; be it through one-sided trades or just bad scouting; don't quite know what to do with all the over-the-hill players they are still paying a significant amount of money to; and are generally lost as to what they should do at this point. The Mets have the core of David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes to piece together with John Maine and Santana, but little to nothing else. Everything else they have is skeletons of former elite players, veteran fringe players and the leftover remains of their wrecked minor league system. Sounds a lot like the Yanks. They've got a great core of early-thirties superstars (A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Abreu) to go along with some youngsters who are loaded with potential (Wang, Cano, Chamberlain) but are crippled at this point by the likes of Giambi, Damon, Posada, Mussina and Pettite. As for the Giants, it is going to take them probably at least a decade to recover from the hangover of the Barroid-era. There isn't a team in the Majors who wouldn't give up every prospect they have for Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Brian Wilson, but with Omar Vizquel, Randy Winn, Rich Aurillia, Ray Durham and the crippling contracts of Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, those three young guns aren't going to be much help.
Youthful Experience: Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
The Nationals and Reds both fall under this category for different reasons. Outside of Tampa, the Reds have the best core group of young talent in baseball. With Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez pieced together with Adam Dunn, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, there isn't any reason why the Reds shouldn't be a perennial contender for years to come. This years is just going to have to be a throwaway season why the youngsters cut their teeth at the bigs and everyone gets comfortable playing for the managerial incompetent known as Dusty Baker. In Washington, it's just a case of getting a group of young talent comfortable with each other and their own abilities. Almost all of them -- from Ryan Zimmerman to Elijah Dukes to Lastings Milledge to Austin Kearns -- have shown what they can do, it's just a matter of bringing all these personalities together and getting them to mesh. There is also an abundance of fine young arms in the nation's capital, which includes Shawn Hill, John Lannan, Jay Bergmann, Matt Chico and Joel Hanrahan who are all ready to contribute.
The Usual Suspects: Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
Does anything really need to be said here? These three are the anti-everything that Minnesota, Florida and Oakland have become. They are all completely incompetent and incapable of putting a winning product on the field. Even with an outfield of Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones, the Orioles are still going nowhere in the AL East. The Royals and Pirates are the perfect models for why contraction still may not be the worst idea.
Scraping the Botton: San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies
And here we are, the worst of the worst. Why these three at the end instead of the ones directly above? Well, it is completely expected of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh to take a fat crap in the middle of the diamond every night. Not exactly so with the Padres, Mariners and Rockies. I heavily criticized Seattle and Colorado during the off-season, but the Padres have no reason to be where they currently are. Sure, they play in a park the land mass equivalent of the Sahara Desert, but with a rotation of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf -- all injuries aside -- if you are capable of putting three runs per game on the board, you should be contending. As for Seattle, why they continue to put stock into Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre is anyone's guess. Like I said after the deal was made, Adam Jones meant a hell of a lot more to their offense than Erik Bedard does their pitching staff. At this rate, they'll be lucky to score sixty games, and while their rotation has still crapped the bed, an offense that averages more than four runs per game could still keep them competitive. And then there's Colorado... They weren't that good last season. It's true. They were barely a .500 team in a very weak league last season, but they got hot at the right time. They were ten games under at one point, but as we've all learned, it's just about timing. And getting a botched call at the plate to go your way in game #163 doesn't hurt either. And this year they get absolutely decimated by injuries to every key contributor for that stretch run. Hope you enjoyed it, Colorado, it's gonna be a while before you feel Rocktober again.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Stadium Atmosphere
Over on the Nation yesterday, a thread was posted (here) about stadium atmosphere and the lack thereof at Turner Field. There's a number of interesting statements and theories contained within, so I figured I'd pick a few comments out and take the discussion a little deeper. So, off we go...
The most depressing thing about 2005 wasn't either of the first games, however, it was the "if necessary" fifth game. I had already went back and forth as to whether or not we were going to the game if the Braves were able to pull it out in Game 4. When Adam LaRoche launched a grand slam off Brandon Backe in the top of the third, the deal was sealed. I just hoped there would still be tickets available. So, in the middle of the third, I hoped on Ticketmaster and was actually able to get tickets which were better than the ones we had for the second game. Same section, about three rows closer.
Of course, we all know what happened with that outcome and how Chris Effin Burke will never be able to step back onto a baseball field in Atlanta without being verbally assaulted by all in attendance. Oh, what's that? Burke has returned to Atlanta since -- he's had over 20 PAs, actually -- and the fans haven't so much as acknowledged it? Hrm. Yeah. Sounds about right.
As for how the state of Georgia produces baseball players, I really don't see how that factors into the equation. While over the past two decades, a number of elite players have been produced by the state (Frank Thomas, Tim Hudson, the Drew brothers, McCann, Francoeur, Micah Owings and Nick Markakis) as well as some very serviceable players (Rondell White, Mike Cameron, Michael Barrett, Jake Westbrook, Adam Wainwright) aside from McCann, Francoeur and J.D. Drew, what impact does homegrown talent directly have on the Braves' attendance? Sure, there has been a lot of homegrown talent -- Blaine Boyer, Willie Harris, Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Macay McBride -- none of those players have been the type to make fans stop in their tracks and say "holy shit, Chuck James is starting tonight, dude, we're so there!" Hell, even the debut of Jeff Francoeur -- the local legend, whom most of us had been hearing about since he was a sophomore at Parkview and which was highly publicized in the backend of a day/night doubleheader against the Cubs -- wasn't enough to get 35,000 fans into the seats. Obviously, the "homegrown" card really plays no factor into the thoughts of Braves fans.
But, ok, I can still see the fans who hopped on the bandwagon in 1991-93 getting bored and hopping back off. I'll concede that point for now. Nothing can lose the casual fan's attention more than having to sit through a 162 game schedule to make it to the playoffs in October. So, where were those same fans once the team reached the playoffs? Yeah, we have all been letdown and disappointed by this team so many times it's hard to not feel numb about it at this point, but don't forget that as early as 1995, David Justice was having to call out Braves fans for their lack of fire before the Series returned to Atlanta for the sixth and deciding game. Honestly, that was the last real time the city of Atlanta rallied behind this franchise and showed any type of loyalty.
The Nationals came into existence in 2005, so that doesn't really make it difficult to track down a game that meets the above criteria. The Nationals played ten games in Atlanta that first season, and only for one series were there over 25,000 fans in the stands for every game. And, yes, in one of those games, Andruw did hit a walk-off homerun. Only it was in the tenth. And the paid attendance was less than 20,000 fans. So, yeah...
Now, number two: This has always been the one, single statement which has always pissed me off the most. Turner Field is no more or less difficult to get to than any other venue in the city. Hell, it may even be easier to get to and find a parking spot because everything else is actually located in the city itself, while the Ted is slightly disconnected with four massive parking lots. Yeah, it can be a little trying to get through the traffic at times, but if you are coming from outside the perimeter, you are going to be moving against the rush-hour traffic headed out of the city. The only true issues you should run into are right after the Grady Curve at the exit for 20 and if something is going on at the Dome or Philips. Saying it's "difficult" to get to the Ted is just a cop-out excuse.
The gold standard for successful attendance numbers is still the three million mark, something the Braves accomplished for the better part of a decade. That averages out to a little over 37,000 fans per game. It doesn't matter if you are getting those 37,000 fans into a stadium that holds over 50,000 like both Turner Field and Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium or something smaller like PetCo, AT&T or PNC Park that 37,000 fans is still 37,000 fans. Sure, a sellout at a smaller stadium looks more impressive and make things seem less cavernous, but look at stadiums like Shea and Yankee Stadium when they sellout games. Which is more intimidating?
Bottom line, it doesn't matter if Turner Field were built to be a baseball-only ballpark that accommodates 42,000 fans or a converted Olympic venue which held 85,000 fans. The fans aren't going to show up regardless of where the game is taking place. Hell, move them over to Russ Chandler Stadium and let's pack that bitch with the only true 8,000 fans who still give a shit.
So, yeah, just my thoughts.
If we ever make the playoffs again [the atmosphere will return], 05 was electric.I can't speak for the poster who made this comment, but I was there in 2005, for Game 2 at least. The crowd was absolutely dead for the first game of the series, and barely broke 40,000. Thankfully the lure of Smoltz and Clemens in the second game was able to draw out about 6,000 more fans. The problem? Almost everyone around us -- we were sitting down the RF line -- was wearing Astros' colors. And it really seemed like our section wasn't alone in this scenario. Sure, the place went absolutely ballistic when McCann took Rocket deep in the bottom of the second, but that was really the only time the "playoff" atmosphere was there. Even with two Hall of Famers taking the mound, things honestly didn't seem much different than had it been mid-May instead of the first week of October.
The most depressing thing about 2005 wasn't either of the first games, however, it was the "if necessary" fifth game. I had already went back and forth as to whether or not we were going to the game if the Braves were able to pull it out in Game 4. When Adam LaRoche launched a grand slam off Brandon Backe in the top of the third, the deal was sealed. I just hoped there would still be tickets available. So, in the middle of the third, I hoped on Ticketmaster and was actually able to get tickets which were better than the ones we had for the second game. Same section, about three rows closer.
Of course, we all know what happened with that outcome and how Chris Effin Burke will never be able to step back onto a baseball field in Atlanta without being verbally assaulted by all in attendance. Oh, what's that? Burke has returned to Atlanta since -- he's had over 20 PAs, actually -- and the fans haven't so much as acknowledged it? Hrm. Yeah. Sounds about right.
Is it because football rules in the South and we don't care about baseball as much? The way our state produces baseball players, you would think that wouldn't be the case.It could definitely explain the apathy towards September and October baseball, but what about the middle of the summer? Spring practice has wrapped, the college football season doesn't kick until the end of August, so where are all these diehard sports fans? They can follow the Dawgs, Gators, Tigers, Vols, whoever all over the southeast, but they can't make the drive to downtown Atlanta to catch a weekend series while the kids are out of school? I'm not buying it.
As for how the state of Georgia produces baseball players, I really don't see how that factors into the equation. While over the past two decades, a number of elite players have been produced by the state (Frank Thomas, Tim Hudson, the Drew brothers, McCann, Francoeur, Micah Owings and Nick Markakis) as well as some very serviceable players (Rondell White, Mike Cameron, Michael Barrett, Jake Westbrook, Adam Wainwright) aside from McCann, Francoeur and J.D. Drew, what impact does homegrown talent directly have on the Braves' attendance? Sure, there has been a lot of homegrown talent -- Blaine Boyer, Willie Harris, Chuck James, Kyle Davies, Macay McBride -- none of those players have been the type to make fans stop in their tracks and say "holy shit, Chuck James is starting tonight, dude, we're so there!" Hell, even the debut of Jeff Francoeur -- the local legend, whom most of us had been hearing about since he was a sophomore at Parkview and which was highly publicized in the backend of a day/night doubleheader against the Cubs -- wasn't enough to get 35,000 fans into the seats. Obviously, the "homegrown" card really plays no factor into the thoughts of Braves fans.
It's because the fans got spoiled. The new wore off and now no one cares. Atlanta and Turner Field has nowhere near the history of the cities/stadiums you compared it to.But what kind of half-life is there for the "new to wear off" and for "no one to care"? Up until 2001, the Braves were still in the top four in attendance in the National League and continued to draw three million fans a season. If the fans just got bored, wouldn't things have started to wear off a little after the World Series title in 1995? Sure, the Braves took a hit in attendance immediately following the two strike-affected seasons, but that was true league-wide. Was it the lure of the new stadium (the five year honeymoon effect, if you will) that kept them around until the early 2000's? Well, if that were the case, shouldn't it have continued to drop, especially as the team was going through so many postseason failures followed by two consecutive seasons in which they missed the postseason? The attendance actually stabilized (to around 35,000 per game) over that time, and didn't see a huge drop-off until the current season.
But, ok, I can still see the fans who hopped on the bandwagon in 1991-93 getting bored and hopping back off. I'll concede that point for now. Nothing can lose the casual fan's attention more than having to sit through a 162 game schedule to make it to the playoffs in October. So, where were those same fans once the team reached the playoffs? Yeah, we have all been letdown and disappointed by this team so many times it's hard to not feel numb about it at this point, but don't forget that as early as 1995, David Justice was having to call out Braves fans for their lack of fire before the Series returned to Atlanta for the sixth and deciding game. Honestly, that was the last real time the city of Atlanta rallied behind this franchise and showed any type of loyalty.
I've actually had to get SRO tickets to a midseason game against the Nats before, which sounds pretty amazing. It was the year the Nat's were good though, Andruw took a walk-off walk in the ninth FTW. Good game.Ok, I don't wanna be an ass here, but I'm gonna have to call bullshit on this statement.
The Nationals came into existence in 2005, so that doesn't really make it difficult to track down a game that meets the above criteria. The Nationals played ten games in Atlanta that first season, and only for one series were there over 25,000 fans in the stands for every game. And, yes, in one of those games, Andruw did hit a walk-off homerun. Only it was in the tenth. And the paid attendance was less than 20,000 fans. So, yeah...
we will never have this kind of atmosphere for a coupla reasonsStarting with numero uno: So, essentially, the home attendance should be even worse than it already is? I can't really argue that statement, because we've all see Turner Field overrun with fans from Boston, Chicago and New York when their teams are in town.
1) atlanta is full of transplants whose 1st team is not the braves
2) it is hard to get to the stadium and atlanta is so spread out. the majority of people who are brave fans it takes at least 30 minutes to get to the game
Now, number two: This has always been the one, single statement which has always pissed me off the most. Turner Field is no more or less difficult to get to than any other venue in the city. Hell, it may even be easier to get to and find a parking spot because everything else is actually located in the city itself, while the Ted is slightly disconnected with four massive parking lots. Yeah, it can be a little trying to get through the traffic at times, but if you are coming from outside the perimeter, you are going to be moving against the rush-hour traffic headed out of the city. The only true issues you should run into are right after the Grady Curve at the exit for 20 and if something is going on at the Dome or Philips. Saying it's "difficult" to get to the Ted is just a cop-out excuse.
Part of the problem is that Turner is too big for Atlanta and for the Braves' fanbase. The place looks empty, even with attendance over 27,000. There is too much supply and not enough demand.So, attendance in the 25,000 to 35,000 range is acceptable? It doesn't matter how big or small the stadium is, the number remains the same. Look at the huge attendance numbers the Blue Jays, Indians and Rockies used to put up, would it have been as impressive if their stadiums held less than 40,000? No way.
The gold standard for successful attendance numbers is still the three million mark, something the Braves accomplished for the better part of a decade. That averages out to a little over 37,000 fans per game. It doesn't matter if you are getting those 37,000 fans into a stadium that holds over 50,000 like both Turner Field and Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium or something smaller like PetCo, AT&T or PNC Park that 37,000 fans is still 37,000 fans. Sure, a sellout at a smaller stadium looks more impressive and make things seem less cavernous, but look at stadiums like Shea and Yankee Stadium when they sellout games. Which is more intimidating?
Bottom line, it doesn't matter if Turner Field were built to be a baseball-only ballpark that accommodates 42,000 fans or a converted Olympic venue which held 85,000 fans. The fans aren't going to show up regardless of where the game is taking place. Hell, move them over to Russ Chandler Stadium and let's pack that bitch with the only true 8,000 fans who still give a shit.
Why don't they take out about 10,000 seats and build some sort of fan attraction? Like a little fun zone.There is already Tooner Field out beyond the Chophouse in left-center, as well as a number of fan- and kid-friendly activities all over the ballpark. Obviously, appealing to the family demographic isn't where the business is at. The problem with Atlanta is it's a very young city. You have four major universities all within driving distance and a lot of the working class are holdovers from those same schools. The bigger problem is the number of draws for this demographic that isn't a baseball game. What is the one section of Turner Field that is always packed and "the place to be seen"? The Chophouse. But how many people outside of diehard baseball fans are going to choose that as their drinking location over going to a club or house party? Exactly.
So, yeah, just my thoughts.
Tracking History
So, after yesterday's loss to the Cubs, the Braves currently stand at 32-35 (.478) on the season and 7.5 games behind the first-place Phillies. I decided to take a look back at the past decade and see where teams who have started out their season at 32-25 ended up, here's the results:
As you see, there's been a mixed bag of success and failures for those teams who have had the same start as Atlanta over the past decade.
With a 32-35 start, it takes at least a 49-46 run over the rest of the season to get back to .500, something only four of the eleven teams were able to accomplish. Of course, there are always the '04 Braves and '01 Athletics who were able to close the season with records of 64-31 and 70-25, respectively.
I think probably the most interesting bit here is only three teams out of the eleven were able to close the distance between themselves and first place over the course of the season -- the aforementioned Atlanta and Oakland teams, along with the '01 White Sox.
Even with the Braves and Athletics successes, the average number of wins for the remainder of the season is just under 49. Only time shall tell where the '08 Braves will fall on this list, but as we all know, it's certainly going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way.
| Year | Team | GB | W-L After | Final W-L | Final GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | CIN | 6.5 | 53-42 | 85-77 | 10.0 |
| 2001 | TOR | 7.5 | 48-47 | 80-82 | 16.0 |
| 2001 | OAK | 20.0 | 70-25 | 102-60 | 14.0 |
| 2001 | CWS | 9.5 | 51-44 | 83-79 | 8.0 |
| 2002 | COL | 8.5 | 41-54 | 73-89 | 25.0 |
| 2002 | BAL | 11.5 | 35-60 | 67-95 | 36.5 |
| 2003 | ARI | 10.0 | 52-43 | 84-78 | 16.5 |
| 2003 | BAL | 7.5 | 39-59 | 71-91 | 30.0 |
| 2004 | ATL | 4.5 | 64-31 | 96-66 | --- |
| 2006 | MIL | 7.5 | 43-52 | 75-87 | 8.5 |
| 2007 | FLA | 5.5 | 39-56 | 71-91 | 18.0 |
With a 32-35 start, it takes at least a 49-46 run over the rest of the season to get back to .500, something only four of the eleven teams were able to accomplish. Of course, there are always the '04 Braves and '01 Athletics who were able to close the season with records of 64-31 and 70-25, respectively.
I think probably the most interesting bit here is only three teams out of the eleven were able to close the distance between themselves and first place over the course of the season -- the aforementioned Atlanta and Oakland teams, along with the '01 White Sox.
Even with the Braves and Athletics successes, the average number of wins for the remainder of the season is just under 49. Only time shall tell where the '08 Braves will fall on this list, but as we all know, it's certainly going to be an uphill battle the rest of the way.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Power Rankings -- 06/12/08
Sorry I'm a few days late...
Not sure what I'm going to do with the Calculated Power Rankings, I need to tweak the formula a bit. I may bring it back next week.
Also, for the sake of the Power Rankings, I may move them to the middle of the week permanently since I'm so late with this week.
| Rank | Move | Team | W-L |
| (1) | +3 | Boston Red Sox | 41-27 |
| (2) | -2 | Chicago Cubs | 42-24 |
| (3) | --- | Philadelphia Phillies | 39-28 |
| (4) | -2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 38-28 |
| (5) | --- | Arizona Diamondbacks | 35-31 |
| (6) | +1 | Los Angeles Angels | 41-26 |
| (7) | +5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 40-27 |
| (8) | --- | Florida Marlins | 36-29 |
| (9) | -3 | Chicago White Sox | 37-28 |
| (10) | +4 | Minnesota Twins | 32-34 |
| (11) | +4 | Oakland Athletics | 35-30 |
| (12) | -1 | Houston Astros | 33-33 |
| (13) | --- | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31-34 |
| (14) | +5 | New York Yankees | 33-33 |
| (15) | +5 | New York Mets | 31-33 |
| (16) | -6 | Atlanta Braves | 32-34 |
| (17) | --- | Cincinnati Reds | 31-36 |
| (18) | --- | Cleveland Indians | 30-36 |
| (19) | -4 | Texas Rangers | 34-33 |
| (20) | -4 | Toronto Blue Jays | 34-34 |
| (21) | +2 | Baltimore Orioles | 32-32 |
| (22) | --- | Milwaukee Brewers | 34-31 |
| (23) | +2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32-34 |
| (24) | -3 | Detroit Tigers | 28-37 |
| (25) | +1 | San Francisco Giants | 29-37 |
| (26) | +1 | San Diego Padres | 29-38 |
| (27) | -3 | Washington Nationals | 26-41 |
| (28) | +1 | Seattle Mariners | 24-42 |
| (29) | -1 | Kansas City Royals | 25-41 |
| (30) | --- | Colorado Rockies | 26-39 |
Also, for the sake of the Power Rankings, I may move them to the middle of the week permanently since I'm so late with this week.
Walkoff HBPs
So, after the Braves lost today's game in Chicago after Jeff Ridgway plunked Reed Johnson for yet another loss, the research juices started flowing.
Here's a lost of the walkoff HBPs this decade:
Interestingly, the Braves and Indians have been victims twice, whereas the Dodgers have benefited three different times.
Here's a lost of the walkoff HBPs this decade:
| Date | Pitcher | Batter |
|---|---|---|
| 6/20/2001 ARI at LAD | Erik Sabel (ARI) | Eric Karros (LAD) |
| 7/20/2002 TEX at OAK | Dave Burba (TEX) | Olmedo Saenz (OAK) |
| 7/21/2002 CLE at KCR | Heath Murray (CLE) | Raul Ibanez (KCR) |
| 8/23/2002 ATL at LAD | Kevin Gryboski (ATL) | Paul Lo Duca (LAD) |
| 9/16/2005 OAK at BOS | Keiichi Yabu (OAK) | Manny Ramirez (BOS) |
| 4/5/2007 CLE at CHW | Roberto Hernandez (CLE) | A.J. Pierzynski (CHW) |
| 5/27/2007 CHC at LAD | Carlos Marmol (CHC) | Juan Pierre (LAD) |
| 6/5/2008 NYM at SDP | Scott Schoewenweis (NYM) | Paul McAnulty (SDP) |
| 6/12/2008 ATL at CHC | Jeff Ridgway (ATL) | Reed Johnson (CHC) |
Interestingly, the Braves and Indians have been victims twice, whereas the Dodgers have benefited three different times.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Be Back Later
Probably be unavailable for a few days. I'll have plenty of updates posted in soon.
Brandon
Brandon
Monday, June 2, 2008
Looking at Some Past Predictions
So, apparently there was a bit of a hot topic in tonight's gamethread about how a certain someone (re: me) has made some rather outlandish (and seemingly) incorrect predictions lately. Hrm, let's tale a look...
Final round of cuts: "Translation: Expect a lot of one-run losses."
Oh. Well. Wonder how that turned out?
2008 Baseball Predictions: "Prediction: Colorado doesn't win 70 games."
Currently on pace for 57...
Pre-Season Power Rankings: (16) Tampa Bay Rays, (19) Seattle Mariners, (30) Colorado Rockies
Took a beating for each of those..
Glavine???: 6.10 IP/GS, 1.40 WHIP, 4.47 K/9, 4.51 ERA
Actual: 5.7 IP/GS (not counting the Nats game), 1.46 WHIP, 5.08 K/9, 4.56 ERA
Braves Trade Joey Devine to Oakland for Mark and Jamie Kotsay: Expected Runs Scored: 763 runs
Current projection: 765 runs
Sorting Out the Pitching Staff: Expected Runs Allowed: 689 runs
Current projection: 624 runs (a difference of 0.4 runs per game)
Rounding out the Lineup, Pt. 3:
(1) Escobar: 751 OPS
Actual: 758 OPS
(2) Mark Teixeira: .275 / .360 / .525 - .885 OPS
Actual: .276 / .363 / 467 - .831 OPS
(3) Jeff Francoeur: .777 OPS
Actual: .742 OPS
So, yeah.
Did I royally screw on the Zito prediction? Definitely. But I think the above kinda makes up for it...
Final round of cuts: "Translation: Expect a lot of one-run losses."
Oh. Well. Wonder how that turned out?
2008 Baseball Predictions: "Prediction: Colorado doesn't win 70 games."
Currently on pace for 57...
Pre-Season Power Rankings: (16) Tampa Bay Rays, (19) Seattle Mariners, (30) Colorado Rockies
Took a beating for each of those..
Glavine???: 6.10 IP/GS, 1.40 WHIP, 4.47 K/9, 4.51 ERA
Actual: 5.7 IP/GS (not counting the Nats game), 1.46 WHIP, 5.08 K/9, 4.56 ERA
Braves Trade Joey Devine to Oakland for Mark and Jamie Kotsay: Expected Runs Scored: 763 runs
Current projection: 765 runs
Sorting Out the Pitching Staff: Expected Runs Allowed: 689 runs
Current projection: 624 runs (a difference of 0.4 runs per game)
Rounding out the Lineup, Pt. 3:
(1) Escobar: 751 OPS
Actual: 758 OPS
(2) Mark Teixeira: .275 / .360 / .525 - .885 OPS
Actual: .276 / .363 / 467 - .831 OPS
(3) Jeff Francoeur: .777 OPS
Actual: .742 OPS
So, yeah.
Did I royally screw on the Zito prediction? Definitely. But I think the above kinda makes up for it...
Playing the Matchup Game
It's been no surprise to Braves fans over the past two decades Bobby Cox is a fan of playing the platoon game. If there's an available right-handed bat to take the plate of a left-handed hitter he may not feel confident placing in the lineup against left-handed pitchers, he's going to jump on it and ride it out for as long as he can. But how does his tendency to avoid the LHB vs. LHP matchup differ from the league average over that time, and how does the Braves quality and number of left-handed bats play into all this? Over the past few days, I've accumulated a fair amount of data on the subject and decided to dig into it all and see just where it took me, the cumulation of all that is what follows.
The first part of my research focused on the number of lefty vs. lefty matchups that have taken place from 1990 until last season, for both the Majors and the Braves. Here are how those numbers played out, along with the percent of batters were strictly left-handed and the percent of ML pitchers who were lefty:
Something interesting I first noticed was the fact the percent of LHP in the Majors has dipped by over five percent over the past eighteen seasons. I guess when everyone says that lefties are becoming more of a hot commodity, there is so actual proof to it. If expansion has diluted one aspect of the game, it definitely looks like it's the availability of left-handed pitching.
Now, the truly interesting thing is the overall MLB trend of more LH/LH matchups over this timespan while the number of LHB doesn't make all that great of a swing. The number of left-handed bats tends to stay around the same percent, but the amount of matchups has a shift of almost seven percent from beginning to end. So, it would definitely appear that the overall belief is at least somewhat shifting that matchup may not exactly be that huge of a disadvantage. But, we'll get to that a little later.
The Braves, on the other hand, are all over the place. Granted, we are looking at a PA total that accounts for only about seven percent of the ML total over the given timespan, but it's still intriguing. While there are a few outliers on the high-end (1995, 1997 and 2002) these could be attributed to the fact the Braves also put plenty of distance between themselves and their division rivals and were able to use more position players over the course of the season. Still, the overall total of LH bats is higher for the Braves over this span than for the Majors, yet their percent of LH/LH plate appearances is lower.
So, what's going on here?
We'll, let's dig a little deeper and look at who the Braves primary LH bats have been in the seasons where they have the biggest discrepancies from the league average.
2002 (-21.57%): Keith Lockhart (331), Darren Bragg (240), Matt Franco (233)
2000 (-18.57%): Lockhart (313), Wally Joyner (260), B.J. Surhoff (143)
2003 (-17.52%): Robert Fick (460), Bragg (181), Franco (148)
1995 (+15.73%): Fred McGriff (604), David Justice (491) Ryan Klesko (381)
1997 (+14.90%): McGriff (641), Kenny Lofton (564), Klesko (522), Michael Tucker (554)
1994 (+13.73%): McGriff (478), Justice (424), Klesko (276), Deion Sanders (211)
Obviously, a lack of left-handed depth played into this a great deal.
Now, here is where things start to get interesting.
Over the past eighteen seasons, here are the OPS+ numbers for every situation vs. LHP for the entire Majors:
The reason I didn't lay out a year-by-year like I'm about to do for the Braves is because there isn't much difference in the overall range. The overall swing for each category is no more than four percent (for LH/LH) and no less than six percent (overall), so these numbers have remained very consistent.
Now, let's take a look at the Braves:
Uh, wow. That's a pretty huge range. An almost fifty percent difference from max to min in LHB/LHP, a nineteen percent swing in RHB/LHP and a fifteen percent swing overall.
The interesting thing here is the lack of correlation between these numbers and the ones I posted above showing the lack of depth in the years there was a big difference in the percent of LHB/LHP situations.
While 2004 is an exception -- thanks to J.D. Drew's 119 OPS+ against lefties -- there were still a number of seasons where the Braves saw a higher OPS+ out of their lefties against LHP than their righties, but still saw the righties get the majority of the at-bats. Even in 2002, when the Braves only sent a lefty to face a lefty seven percent of the time, there was only a seventeen point difference in the OPS+.
So, what is there to take away from all this? Well, for starters, you gotta have left-handed depth. And you can't be afraid to use them against left-handed pitchers, regardless of whether or not there may be an inferior righty also on the bench. I know that's a very brief synopsis of everything presented here, but I honestly think the data here really does speak a lot for itself.
The first part of my research focused on the number of lefty vs. lefty matchups that have taken place from 1990 until last season, for both the Majors and the Braves. Here are how those numbers played out, along with the percent of batters were strictly left-handed and the percent of ML pitchers who were lefty:
| Year | ML LHB vs. LHP | ML LHB | Braves LHB vs. LHP | Braves LHB | MLB LHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 21.34% | 30.27% | 20.69% | 30.43% | 32.92% |
| 1991 | 22.63% | 28.70% | 17.00% | 34.78% | 31.79% |
| 1992 | 21.84% | 27.69% | 17.29% | 36.36% | 31.75% |
| 1993 | 21.93% | 28.03% | 24.69% | 30.00% | 31.16% |
| 1994 | 22.09% | 27.72% | 35.82% | 27.78% | 30.21% |
| 1995 | 22.93% | 28.30% | 38.66% | 35.00% | 29.89% |
| 1996 | 22.71% | 26.61% | 29.83% | 29.17% | 27.88% |
| 1997 | 24.77% | 26.14% | 39.67% | 42.86% | 28.84% |
| 1998 | 26.23% | 26.86% | 18.13% | 34.78% | 29.26% |
| 1999 | 25.78% | 27.34% | 12.07% | 31.82% | 27.18% |
| 2000 | 26.74% | 28.48% | 8.17% | 24.00% | 26.90% |
| 2001 | 27.33% | 29.09% | 17.11% | 25.00% | 25.38% |
| 2002 | 28.68% | 28.71% | 7.11% | 27.78% | 27.75% |
| 2003 | 28.15% | 27.79% | 10.63% | 23.53% | 29.08% |
| 2004 | 27.36% | 29.01% | 16.75% | 22.22% | 26.90% |
| 2005 | 27.10% | 29.43% | 19.55% | 31.58% | 27.89% |
| 2006 | 25.40% | 29.65% | 22.32% | 31.58% | 26.46% |
| 2007 | 26.80% | 29.77% | 26.14% | 31.82% | 27.78% |
| Total | 25.08% | 27.39% | 21.83% | 33.94% | 29.02% |
Something interesting I first noticed was the fact the percent of LHP in the Majors has dipped by over five percent over the past eighteen seasons. I guess when everyone says that lefties are becoming more of a hot commodity, there is so actual proof to it. If expansion has diluted one aspect of the game, it definitely looks like it's the availability of left-handed pitching.
Now, the truly interesting thing is the overall MLB trend of more LH/LH matchups over this timespan while the number of LHB doesn't make all that great of a swing. The number of left-handed bats tends to stay around the same percent, but the amount of matchups has a shift of almost seven percent from beginning to end. So, it would definitely appear that the overall belief is at least somewhat shifting that matchup may not exactly be that huge of a disadvantage. But, we'll get to that a little later.
The Braves, on the other hand, are all over the place. Granted, we are looking at a PA total that accounts for only about seven percent of the ML total over the given timespan, but it's still intriguing. While there are a few outliers on the high-end (1995, 1997 and 2002) these could be attributed to the fact the Braves also put plenty of distance between themselves and their division rivals and were able to use more position players over the course of the season. Still, the overall total of LH bats is higher for the Braves over this span than for the Majors, yet their percent of LH/LH plate appearances is lower.
So, what's going on here?
We'll, let's dig a little deeper and look at who the Braves primary LH bats have been in the seasons where they have the biggest discrepancies from the league average.
2002 (-21.57%): Keith Lockhart (331), Darren Bragg (240), Matt Franco (233)
2000 (-18.57%): Lockhart (313), Wally Joyner (260), B.J. Surhoff (143)
2003 (-17.52%): Robert Fick (460), Bragg (181), Franco (148)
1995 (+15.73%): Fred McGriff (604), David Justice (491) Ryan Klesko (381)
1997 (+14.90%): McGriff (641), Kenny Lofton (564), Klesko (522), Michael Tucker (554)
1994 (+13.73%): McGriff (478), Justice (424), Klesko (276), Deion Sanders (211)
Obviously, a lack of left-handed depth played into this a great deal.
Now, here is where things start to get interesting.
Over the past eighteen seasons, here are the OPS+ numbers for every situation vs. LHP for the entire Majors:
| Situation | vs. LHB | vs. RHB | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 95 | 102 | 100 |
Now, let's take a look at the Braves:
| Situation | vs. LHB | vs. RHB | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 108 | 112 | 111 |
| 1991 | 90 | 104 | 102 |
| 1992 | 98 | 108 | 106 |
| 1993 | 104 | 102 | 102 |
| 1994 | 98 | 92 | 94 |
| 1995 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| 1996 | 106 | 98 | 101 |
| 1997 | 96 | 99 | 98 |
| 1998 | 74 | 103 | 98 |
| 1999 | 60 | 110 | 104 |
| 2000 | 85 | 113 | 111 |
| 2001 | 76 | 112 | 106 |
| 2002 | 80 | 97 | 96 |
| 2003 | 74 | 106 | 102 |
| 2004 | 116 | 104 | 106 |
| 2005 | 95 | 102 | 101 |
| 2006 | 91 | 98 | 97 |
| 2007 | 82 | 105 | 99 |
The interesting thing here is the lack of correlation between these numbers and the ones I posted above showing the lack of depth in the years there was a big difference in the percent of LHB/LHP situations.
While 2004 is an exception -- thanks to J.D. Drew's 119 OPS+ against lefties -- there were still a number of seasons where the Braves saw a higher OPS+ out of their lefties against LHP than their righties, but still saw the righties get the majority of the at-bats. Even in 2002, when the Braves only sent a lefty to face a lefty seven percent of the time, there was only a seventeen point difference in the OPS+.
So, what is there to take away from all this? Well, for starters, you gotta have left-handed depth. And you can't be afraid to use them against left-handed pitchers, regardless of whether or not there may be an inferior righty also on the bench. I know that's a very brief synopsis of everything presented here, but I honestly think the data here really does speak a lot for itself.
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