So, we all know about how the Braves have struggled on the road, while striving at home. A couple days ago, I posted a note on how the Braves aren't seeing any less pitches when they drop games -- in fact, they are seeing more -- but how do those numbers look when divided between their home and road splits?
Let's take a look...
Road (27 games): 3.65 pitches/plate appearance
Home (29 games): 3.77 pitches/plate appearance
Alright, so, now we're getting somewhere.
Let's take it a step further and look at the won/loss splits for each of those...
Road Wins (7 games): 3.47 pitches/plate appearance
Road Losses (20 games): 3.73 pitches/plate appearance
Home Wins (22 games): 3.79 pitches/plate appearance
Home Losses (7 games): 3.72 pitches/plate appearance
Well, I guess based on that, there really isn't much that can be drawn from all this.
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Friday, May 30, 2008
Updates To Come
I've got about five or six different ideas I'm working on right now. Hopefully I'll get them posted sometime Saturday evening.
Keep checking back.
Brandon
Keep checking back.
Brandon
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Pitching Run Differential
Ok, so, this is a stat I came up with last October at Braves Nation, and decided to take a second look at it this season. For anyone who missed it the first time around, the original thread can be found here. There's a short description of it there, but for those of us who are too lazy to check out a link, here it is again:
Hell, I'm in a giving mood for those of you who may still not be getting it, so I'll throw out an example:
Lance Harbor is a starting pitcher for the West Canaan Coyotes. The West Canaan offense, lead by leadoff hitter Wendell Brown, is scoring runs at a pace of 4.76 per game -- or 119 in 25 games, over 224 innings (672 outs). This total comes to 0.1771 runs/out for the Coyotes lineup. Over Harbor's six starts, he's worked 32 innings (96 outs) and allowed 12 runs. So, he's getting 16 outs per game and letting up two runs per game. So, in his time in the game, the offense is scoring 2.8336 runs and he's allowing two runs per game, this gives him a run differential of +0.8366 R/G. So, obviously, he's doing his part, it's in the hands of the bullpen and offense as to what the outcome of the game is.
Pretty simple: A positive number says the pitcher is doing his job and he's usually leaving the game with the lead, so, the higher the better. A negative number says he's not carrying his weight and is more times than not leaving the game with his team trailing, further away from zero, the worse he is.
Just to take the explanation a step further, here is how the Braves starting pitchers faired last season, their number of starts in parenthesis:
Hudson: +1.11 (34)
Smoltz: +1.12 (32)
James: +0.41 (30)
Carlyle: -0.44 (20)
Davies: -0.77 (17)
Reyes: -1.16 (10)
Cormier: -1.25 (9)
Redman: -1.59 (5)
Bennett: +1.21 (2)
Lerew: -1.21 (3)
Alright, got that? Smoltz and Huddy = Awesome. Cormier and Redman = Crap.
Let's take it to 2008.
Hudson: +1.19 (12)
Jurrjens: +1.00 (11)
Glavine: -0.10 (9)
Reyes: -0.36 (6)
Smoltz: +1.67 (5)
James: -1.76 (5)
Bennett: +0.93 (3)
Campillo: +2.66 (2)
Starters: +0.56
Bullpen: +0.35
Total: +0.91
Last season, the Braves staff had a total run differential of +0.47, so that lets you see just how much better the pitching has been thus far. The starters were at +0.17 (a decent jump) and the bullpen was right around the same, at +0.30.
The truly shocking stat from last year to this season is that last season, the Braves trotted out a starting pitcher with a positive run differential only 41.98% of the time, compared to a 62.26% for this season. The best in the NL East last year was the Mets at 85.19%, while the division champ Phillies were at 57.41%.
Then again, it's still very early. We're just under a third of the way into the season thus far, so there's still a lot of baseball left to be played. I'll keep tracking this and updating as the season goes on. I'll also take a look at some other teams around the league when I get a chance.
Note: I promised Luke a look at the differences of pitch count on offense comparing home and road splits, which I thought I'd get up tonight, but that's not gonna happen. Look for it sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Honestly, it's a very simple analysis, with a lot of room for error and misinterpretation, but here goes...So, what I did was take the number of runs that a pitcher per out, and compared that to the average number of team runs scored over that same period of time.There you have it. Average runs scored minus average runs allowed. Simple enough.
Think of it as an adjusted run differential for pitchers.
Granted, I could have taken this a step further and calculated the actual run support a pitcher received instead of using the overall team average, but, honestly, I think run support is about a luck-oriented stat as there is. The purpose of the game is to score runs, regardless of who is on the mound, so I just went by what the team could do on any given day.
So, what you're gonna see is a positive or negative numerical value which represents, on average, where a team stands when Pitcher X departs the game.
Hell, I'm in a giving mood for those of you who may still not be getting it, so I'll throw out an example:
Lance Harbor is a starting pitcher for the West Canaan Coyotes. The West Canaan offense, lead by leadoff hitter Wendell Brown, is scoring runs at a pace of 4.76 per game -- or 119 in 25 games, over 224 innings (672 outs). This total comes to 0.1771 runs/out for the Coyotes lineup. Over Harbor's six starts, he's worked 32 innings (96 outs) and allowed 12 runs. So, he's getting 16 outs per game and letting up two runs per game. So, in his time in the game, the offense is scoring 2.8336 runs and he's allowing two runs per game, this gives him a run differential of +0.8366 R/G. So, obviously, he's doing his part, it's in the hands of the bullpen and offense as to what the outcome of the game is.
Pretty simple: A positive number says the pitcher is doing his job and he's usually leaving the game with the lead, so, the higher the better. A negative number says he's not carrying his weight and is more times than not leaving the game with his team trailing, further away from zero, the worse he is.
Just to take the explanation a step further, here is how the Braves starting pitchers faired last season, their number of starts in parenthesis:
Hudson: +1.11 (34)
Smoltz: +1.12 (32)
James: +0.41 (30)
Carlyle: -0.44 (20)
Davies: -0.77 (17)
Reyes: -1.16 (10)
Cormier: -1.25 (9)
Redman: -1.59 (5)
Bennett: +1.21 (2)
Lerew: -1.21 (3)
Alright, got that? Smoltz and Huddy = Awesome. Cormier and Redman = Crap.
Let's take it to 2008.
Hudson: +1.19 (12)
Jurrjens: +1.00 (11)
Glavine: -0.10 (9)
Reyes: -0.36 (6)
Smoltz: +1.67 (5)
James: -1.76 (5)
Bennett: +0.93 (3)
Campillo: +2.66 (2)
Starters: +0.56
Bullpen: +0.35
Total: +0.91
Last season, the Braves staff had a total run differential of +0.47, so that lets you see just how much better the pitching has been thus far. The starters were at +0.17 (a decent jump) and the bullpen was right around the same, at +0.30.
The truly shocking stat from last year to this season is that last season, the Braves trotted out a starting pitcher with a positive run differential only 41.98% of the time, compared to a 62.26% for this season. The best in the NL East last year was the Mets at 85.19%, while the division champ Phillies were at 57.41%.
Then again, it's still very early. We're just under a third of the way into the season thus far, so there's still a lot of baseball left to be played. I'll keep tracking this and updating as the season goes on. I'll also take a look at some other teams around the league when I get a chance.
Note: I promised Luke a look at the differences of pitch count on offense comparing home and road splits, which I thought I'd get up tonight, but that's not gonna happen. Look for it sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
One More For Tonight
So, after seeing the Phillies put up twenty on the lowly Rockies today with only seven extra-base hits, I decided to dig a little and see what I can come up with in terms of most runs with the least number of extra-base hits over the past ten years.
Here's the list I came up with:
Quite interesting, I think.
Here's the list I came up with:
| Team | Opp | Date | Runs | XBH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | ARI | 9/21/02 | 15 | 1 |
| OAK | @ LAA | 5/1/08 | 15 | 2 |
| COL | SFG | 6/15/99 | 15 | 3 |
| CLE | TOR | 7/5/00 | 15 | 3 |
| OAK | @ BAL | 8/30/01 | 15 | 3 |
| CWS | @ MIN | 6/25/02 | 15 | 3 |
| SFG | SDP | 4/9/03 | 15 | 3 |
| ATL | MON | 7/18/04 | 16 | 3 |
| SEA | @ ANA | 9/22/04 | 16 | 3 |
| NYY | @ TBD | 9/13/05 | 17 | 2 |
| KCR | NYY | 9/13/04 | 17 | 3 |
| SDP | FLA | 8/23/02 | 18 | 3 |
| LAA | @ BAL | 9/12/07 | 18 | 3 |
Quite interesting, I think.
Some Late Night Notes From Around the League
Let's start things off first with a look at three bits on the Braves:
Working the Count (No, not the blog...)
An interesting tidbit came into my mind after watching the Braves run-up Brandon Webb's pitch count early in today's game. Have the Braves had more or less success working the count this season? The answer may surprise you...
Here are the amount of pitches per plate appearance in their wins and losses, guess which is which...
(A) 3.723 P/PA
(B) 3.714 P/PA
Easy enough, right? Considering the Braves are averaging around 39 batters per game, the difference comes to just over a third of a pitch per game, so it's not like there has been a huge swing in wins and losses.
So, which are the Braves seeing more pitches in? If you answered losses, you were correct.
The Many Streaks of Kelly Johnson
If there was one thing Atlanta fans took away from the 2007 season it was that Kelly Johnson is just about as streaky as a hitter as there could possibly be.
Hell, it goes back further than that, actually. A lot of us have not so fond memories of the .227 OPS he posted in his first 36 ML plate appearances (including a .030 batting average). And what did he do in the following 112 PAs? He only put up a 1.046 OPS. Then, of course, he went on to end the season on a .220/.286/.357 skid over his final 186 trips to the plate.
Get the point? It was the same rinse and repeat process last season.
So, of course, Braves fans -- and their short term memory, god bless 'em -- get a little too excited and uppity when Kelly started hitting once he was removed from the leadoff spot two weeks ago.
But was it really because of his movement in the lineup, or were the seeds already being planted for him to begin another one of his many streaks over the course of the long season? Well, to the stats we go...
For starters, let's look at it in black and white -- what he did before the lineup switch and what he's done afterwards...
Can't argue with that, pretty stark difference.
But, you also can't argue with the fact there is a pretty big difference in 136 PAs and 39 PAs.
So, let's break it down a bit and look at Kelly some of Kelly's increments of 39 PAs so far this year.
As you can see there, in the ten games or so leading up to the big shuffle, Kelly was showing some signs of coming out of the slump he's been in and out of this season. So, I wouldn't be so quick to say it's just because he was relieved of the stresses of hitting leadoff, but let's give it some time to see where he goes from here.
Things Are Heating Up For Tex
Last week I touched on how much Mark Teixeira has been struggling so far this season and how much the Braves are going to be in dire need of him breaking out of the slump he's been in. Could now be the time?
The scary thing is, those numbers are including the 0-for-11 he put up in the first three games of the Arizona series. Then again, when you are facing Doug Davis, Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, such things are to be expected. But then he goes and breaks out against arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Brandon Webb, and drives in four runs in the first two innings.
We can only hope it continues as the Braves head into Milwaukee and Cincinnati.
No Free Passes
While tracking the Tigers/Angels and Red Sox/Mariners games tonight, I came across two rather (un)impressive stats:
Ouch. And Braves fans routinely complain about how Jeff Francoeur is still not where he needs to be in drawing walks? Well, I decided to take this a step further and see who the worst offenders were in this category with over 200 plate appearances.
So, it could be much worse. Just imagine if the Braves had not one, but two players with over 200 plate appearances -- in the case of the Nationals and Padres -- who weren't drawing many walks. Even though Matt Diaz has only drawn three walks this season, he's still 67 plate appearances away from hitting the 200 PA mark.
Surprising Heavy Hitters
So far this season, there have been some hitters who have been absolutely killing the ball. They aren't quite the names you would expect, however. Who would have expected the Phillies would have two players in their lineup who currently have an isoSLG over .300, despite neither being Ryan Howard? Or how about one being an infielder for the Marlins? An outfielder for the White Sox? Here's the list of players who currently have 200+ trips to the plate and have put up an isoSLG over .300 so far.
And there you have it.
More tomorrow, hopefully. I'm still working on the aforementioned clutch hitting project, so maybe I'll get around to posting it.
Working the Count (No, not the blog...)
An interesting tidbit came into my mind after watching the Braves run-up Brandon Webb's pitch count early in today's game. Have the Braves had more or less success working the count this season? The answer may surprise you...
Here are the amount of pitches per plate appearance in their wins and losses, guess which is which...
(A) 3.723 P/PA
(B) 3.714 P/PA
Easy enough, right? Considering the Braves are averaging around 39 batters per game, the difference comes to just over a third of a pitch per game, so it's not like there has been a huge swing in wins and losses.
So, which are the Braves seeing more pitches in? If you answered losses, you were correct.
The Many Streaks of Kelly Johnson
If there was one thing Atlanta fans took away from the 2007 season it was that Kelly Johnson is just about as streaky as a hitter as there could possibly be.
Hell, it goes back further than that, actually. A lot of us have not so fond memories of the .227 OPS he posted in his first 36 ML plate appearances (including a .030 batting average). And what did he do in the following 112 PAs? He only put up a 1.046 OPS. Then, of course, he went on to end the season on a .220/.286/.357 skid over his final 186 trips to the plate.
Get the point? It was the same rinse and repeat process last season.
So, of course, Braves fans -- and their short term memory, god bless 'em -- get a little too excited and uppity when Kelly started hitting once he was removed from the leadoff spot two weeks ago.
But was it really because of his movement in the lineup, or were the seeds already being planted for him to begin another one of his many streaks over the course of the long season? Well, to the stats we go...
For starters, let's look at it in black and white -- what he did before the lineup switch and what he's done afterwards...
| May 13th | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before | 136 | .261 | .328 | .429 | .757 |
| After | 39 | .429 | .462 | .714 | 1.176 |
Can't argue with that, pretty stark difference.
But, you also can't argue with the fact there is a pretty big difference in 136 PAs and 39 PAs.
So, let's break it down a bit and look at Kelly some of Kelly's increments of 39 PAs so far this year.
| Increment | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First 39 @ Leadoff | 39 | .237 | .256 | .263 | .519 |
| Last 39 @ Leadoff | 39 | .314 | .333 | .486 | .819 |
Things Are Heating Up For Tex
Last week I touched on how much Mark Teixeira has been struggling so far this season and how much the Braves are going to be in dire need of him breaking out of the slump he's been in. Could now be the time?
| Teixeira | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 Games | 33 | .379 | .455 | .483 | .938 | 10 |
The scary thing is, those numbers are including the 0-for-11 he put up in the first three games of the Arizona series. Then again, when you are facing Doug Davis, Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, such things are to be expected. But then he goes and breaks out against arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Brandon Webb, and drives in four runs in the first two innings.
We can only hope it continues as the Braves head into Milwaukee and Cincinnati.
No Free Passes
While tracking the Tigers/Angels and Red Sox/Mariners games tonight, I came across two rather (un)impressive stats:
| Player | PA | BB | PA/BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Aybar | 160 | 2 | 80.00 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 182 | 3 | 60.67 |
| Player | PA | BB | PA/BB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 227 | 6 | 37.83 |
| Jose Lopez | 219 | 6 | 36.50 |
| Emil Brown | 203 | 7 | 29.00 |
| Miguel Tejada | 222 | 8 | 27.75 |
| Cristian Guzman | 220 | 8 | 27.50 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 214 | 8 | 26.75 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 220 | 9 | 24.44 |
| Ryan Braun | 215 | 9 | 23.89 |
| Garrett Atkins | 209 | 9 | 23.22 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 214 | 10 | 21.40 |
| Khalil Greene | 213 | 10 | 21.30 |
Surprising Heavy Hitters
So far this season, there have been some hitters who have been absolutely killing the ball. They aren't quite the names you would expect, however. Who would have expected the Phillies would have two players in their lineup who currently have an isoSLG over .300, despite neither being Ryan Howard? Or how about one being an infielder for the Marlins? An outfielder for the White Sox? Here's the list of players who currently have 200+ trips to the plate and have put up an isoSLG over .300 so far.
| Player | % XBH | isoSLG |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Uggla | 61.40 | .380 |
| Lance Berkman | 50.00 | .374 |
| Pat Burrell | 57.45 | .319 |
| Chase Utley | 51.67 | .313 |
| Carlos Quentin | 44.00 | .307 |
More tomorrow, hopefully. I'm still working on the aforementioned clutch hitting project, so maybe I'll get around to posting it.
Monday, May 26, 2008
The Value of Clutch
Major project coming soon.
Keep checking back throughout the day.
EDIT (9:00 PM) -- This may take longer than expected.
Keep checking back throughout the day.
EDIT (9:00 PM) -- This may take longer than expected.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Power Rankings -- 5/24/07
| Rank | Last | Team | W-L |
| (1) | 1 (0) | Arizona Diamondbacks | 29-19 |
| The NL's second best offense jumped all over the NL's best pitching staff last night, and got an emotional boost from the returning Doug Davis. While almost 70% of their wins have come against their division, they also benefit from having those same teams make up 41% of the rest of their schedule. | |||
| (2) | 2 (0) | Boston Red Sox | 31-20 |
| Jon Lester's no-hitter was obviously the highlight of the week for the Red Sox, but they also took advantage of seven games against the Brewers and Royals to open up a 1.5 game lead on Tampa Bay. | |||
| (3) | 4 (+1) | Chicago Cubs | 29-19 |
| The Cubbies are coming off dropping two out of three to the Astros, but those two were only by a combined four runs. They also got quality starts out of Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis this week, which only makes their rotation stronger. | |||
| (4) | 6 (+2) | Tampa Bay Rays | 28-20 |
| Tampa's three wins this week? Garza, Shields, Kazmir. As long as they can continue winning starts by the big three and getting the occasional win out of the backend of their rotation, the Rays are going to stick around. | |||
| (5) | 8 (+3) | Atlanta Braves | 26-22 |
| The Braves are coming off a very strong week against the A's and Mets, but it was proven last night against Arizona their rotation still needs another arm. Hudson, Jurrjens and Glavine are going to be enough to carry them a long way, but relying on fill-in roles from James, Reyes and Campillo isn't going to cut it. | |||
| (6) | 10 (+4) | Oakland Athletics | 26-23 |
| The A's are coming off a tough week against Atlanta and Tampa, but three of the four losses came by a combined three runs. Oakland certainly proved they can hang with two strong rotations, and were able to follow it up by jumping on Tim Wakefield last night. | |||
| (7) | 7 (0) | Philadelphia Phillies | 27-23 |
| The Phils struggled early in the week, getting shutdown by A.J. Burnett, Tim Redding and Jay Bergmann, but their offense finally showed signs of coming to life by putting up nineteen in back-to-back games against the Nats and Astros. | |||
| (8) | 5 (-3) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25-22 |
| The Dodgers have to continue winning the games they are supposed to if they expect to stay in the race with the Diamondbacks. That includes being able to win a couple ace vs. ace matchups, something they didn't do this week as they lost both of Derek Lowe starts, once against Jered Weaver and the other against Adam Wainwright. | |||
| (9) | 20 (+11) | Chicago White Sox | 25-19 |
| Maybe the White Sox are for real. They are fresh off the heels of a eight-game win streak which saw them jump from two back to having as large as a 3.5 game lead in the Central. If they can continue to play the way they are, with Cleveland and Detroit under-performing, they could put themselves in a very good position for September. | |||
| (10) | 9 (-1) | Los Angeles Angels | 29-21 |
| The Angels biggest problem this season has been offensive consistency. In their last eleven games, they have scored more than four runs only twice, and while they have only lost four out of those last eleven, with as fragile as their starting pitching is, they could be in trouble. | |||
| (11) | 16 (+5) | Florida Marlins | 27-20 |
| (12) | 18 (+6) | Texas Rangers | 25-25 |
| (13) | 3 (-10) | Cleveland Indians | 22-26 |
| (14) | 11 (-3) | Minnesota Twins | 24-24 |
| (15) | 19 (+4) | Houston Astros | 28-22 |
| (16) | 14 (-2) | Detroit Tigers | 20-28 |
| (17) | 15 (-2) | St. Louis Cardinals | 29-21 |
| (18) | 25 (+7) | Baltimore Orioles | 24-23 |
| (19) | 24 (+5) | Washington Nationals | 21-28 |
| (20) | 17 (-3) | New York Mets | 22-24 |
| (21) | 23 (+2) | Toronto Blue Jays | 25-25 |
| (22) | 26 (+4) | Cincinnati Reds | 22-27 |
| (23) | 13 (-10) | New York Yankees | 23-25 |
| (24) | 12 (-12) | Milwaukee Brewers | 22-26 |
| (25) | 29 (+4) | San Francisco Giants | 20-29 |
| (26) | 21 (-5) | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22-26 |
| (27) | 27 (0) | Kansas City Royals | 21-27 |
| (28) | 28 (0) | Colorado Rockies | 19-29 |
| (29) | 30 (+1) | Seattle Mariners | 18-31 |
| (30) | 22 (-8) | San Diego Padres | 18-32 |
Greatest Jump: Chicago White Sox (+11)
Greatest Drop: Milwaukee Brewers (-12)
Starting next week, I'm going to begin making the weekly power rankings dependent on the previous week's rankings instead of doing each week as independent entities -- the major change will be limiting moves up or down to five positions.
Greatest Drop: Milwaukee Brewers (-12)
Starting next week, I'm going to begin making the weekly power rankings dependent on the previous week's rankings instead of doing each week as independent entities -- the major change will be limiting moves up or down to five positions.
Calculated Rankings -- 5/24/08
Again, still very much a work in progress, the only change in formula this week was somewhat tweaking the quality of win weight...
Greatest Jump: Toronto Blue Jays (+10)
Greatest Drop: Philadelphia Phillies (-10)
| Rank | Move | Team | W-L |
| (1) | 2 (+1) | Tampa Bay Rays | 28-20 |
| (2) | 1 (-1) | Arizona Diamondbacks | 29-19 |
| (3) | 9 (+6) | Boston Red Sox | 31-20 |
| (4) | 8 (+4) | Chicago White Sox | 26-21 |
| (5) | 10 (+5) | Houston Astros | 28-22 |
| (6) | 5 (-1) | Oakland Athletics | 26-23 |
| (7) | 11 (+4) | Los Angeles Angels | 29-21 |
| (8) | 18 (+10) | Toronto Blue Jays | 25-25 |
| (9) | 16 (+7) | Texas Rangers | 25-25 |
| (10) | 4 (-6) | Chicago Cubs | 29-19 |
| (11) | 3 (-8) | Atlanta Braves | 26-22 |
| (12) | 7 (-5) | Cleveland Indians | 22-26 |
| (13) | 14 (+1) | Minnesota Twins | 24-24 |
| (14) | 20 (+6) | New York Yankees | 23-25 |
| (15) | 13 (-2) | New York Mets | 22-24 |
| (16) | 6 (-10) | Philadelphia Phillies | 27-23 |
| (17) | 19 (+2) | St. Louis Cardinals | 29-21 |
| (18) | 22 (+4) | Cincinnati Reds | 22-27 |
| (19) | 12 (-7) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25-22 |
| (20) | 21 (+1) | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22-26 |
| (21) | 17 (-4) | Baltimore Orioles | 24-23 |
| (22) | 27 (+5) | Detroit Tigers | 20-28 |
| (23) | 15 (-8) | Florida Marlins | 27-20 |
| (24) | 26 (+2) | Washington Nationals | 21-28 |
| (25) | 25 (0) | Milwaukee Brewers | 22-26 |
| (26) | 28 (+2) | San Francisco Giants | 20-29 |
| (27) | 24 (-3) | Seattle Mariners | 18-31 |
| (28) | 29 (+1) | Colorado Rockies | 19-29 |
| (29) | 23 (-6) | Kansas City Royals | 21-27 |
| (30) | 30 (0) | San Diego Padres | 18-32 |
Greatest Drop: Philadelphia Phillies (-10)
Friday, May 23, 2008
Extending Dice-K
With an expensive commodity such as Matsuzaka, how much should a team be willing to accept out of him?
So far this season, Dice-K has made ten starts for the Red Sox, averaging right at six innings pitched over each. With the average starter in a five-man rotation usually getting around 32-34 starts, this puts him getting the Red Sox around 190 to 204 IP this season. But shouldn't a team be able to expect a guarantee of at least 215+ IP out of someone they have paid a combined $14M over the past two seasons?
Last season, there were seventeen pitchers who threw over 215 innings, nine of which logged at least 220. In order for Matsuzaka to log 220 innings at his current pace, he would need to start 36 games this season, something which has only been done three times this decade (Roy Halladay and Greg Maddux in '03 and Tom Glavine in '02).
The surprising thing has been how successful Dice-K has been, despite his inability to stretch many games past the sixth inning. Currently, his 179 ERA+ ranks seventh in the Majors, behind such workhorses as Carlos Zambrano and Tim Lincecum.
So, who are the pitchers over the past two seasons who have been absolutely dominant for their team (ERA+ over 115) but haven't been able to go longer than Matsuzaka (6.3 IP/GS)? Let's take a look...
Two surprising names, in my opinion. I never would have pegged two marquee pitchers like Penny and Young as two who would average less innings per start than someone like Matsuzaka.
So, should managers at least be able to expect their front of the line starters to at least get them seven innings consistently, or is it acceptable for high priced pitchers to go six or less, as long as they are being very successful?
So far this season, Dice-K has made ten starts for the Red Sox, averaging right at six innings pitched over each. With the average starter in a five-man rotation usually getting around 32-34 starts, this puts him getting the Red Sox around 190 to 204 IP this season. But shouldn't a team be able to expect a guarantee of at least 215+ IP out of someone they have paid a combined $14M over the past two seasons?
Last season, there were seventeen pitchers who threw over 215 innings, nine of which logged at least 220. In order for Matsuzaka to log 220 innings at his current pace, he would need to start 36 games this season, something which has only been done three times this decade (Roy Halladay and Greg Maddux in '03 and Tom Glavine in '02).
The surprising thing has been how successful Dice-K has been, despite his inability to stretch many games past the sixth inning. Currently, his 179 ERA+ ranks seventh in the Majors, behind such workhorses as Carlos Zambrano and Tim Lincecum.
So, who are the pitchers over the past two seasons who have been absolutely dominant for their team (ERA+ over 115) but haven't been able to go longer than Matsuzaka (6.3 IP/GS)? Let's take a look...
| Player | GS | IP | IP/GS | ERA+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Penny | 43 | 267.0 | 6.209 | 128 |
| Chris Young | 40 | 227.0 | 5.675 | 116 |
Two surprising names, in my opinion. I never would have pegged two marquee pitchers like Penny and Young as two who would average less innings per start than someone like Matsuzaka.
So, should managers at least be able to expect their front of the line starters to at least get them seven innings consistently, or is it acceptable for high priced pitchers to go six or less, as long as they are being very successful?
Gregor Blanco: A Deeper Look
So far this season, Gregor Blanco has been doing his best Willie Harris impression. Well, kind of. At this point last season, Harris was still flirting with the .400 mark and still had another week left in him before he hit the wall and his season went into the crapper. Blanco's success hasn't been nearly as prolonged, but he did have a stint of nearly 50 plate appearances where he was flirting with the .350 mark before he came back down to earth over the past three weeks.
But what has been the key to Blanco's success so far? Obviously coming into this season, there were a lot of concerns amongst Braves fans as to whether or not he would be able to have any success against ML pitching given his almost complete lack of pop. Has that been the case?
The short answer? Yes.
Let's take a look at how NL hitters -- as well as his Atlanta teammates -- have done in some situations compared to Gregor:
First, we'll take a look at the percentage of plate appearances which end in the ball being hit to the outfield and how often said PAs end in hits.
National League: 37.78% of 29,470 PAs have ended with the ball reaching the OF
Atlanta Braves: 40.33% of 1,840 PAs have ended with ball reaching the OF
Gregor Blanco: 27.78% of 108 PAs have ended with the ball reaching the OF
Obviously there's a huge discrepancy there. And so far, those concerns about Blanco's lack of power have certainly proven true.
However, while he hasn't been able to routinely get the ball out of the infield, with his speed, that hasn't necessarily been a had thing for him. His rate of hitting the ball somewhere on the infield is right with the rest of the league and his teammates, but the big difference is his running ability has allowed him to get on at a .222 clip while the rest of the league sees balls hit on the infield end up as an out 78% of the time. So, he certainly has that going for him.
But is he going to be able to keep these numbers up to remain a productive members of the Braves? Considering his current batting average on balls in play (BABiP) is at a very high .364 mark -- where as the average hitter generally has a BABiP around the .300 mark -- it doesn't seem that way. And this has already started to shine through. Over the past two weeks, Blanco's BABiP has been .143 and he has seen his batting average drop 35 percentage points over that time.
All hope is not lost with Blanco, however. Another surprising aspect of his game has been the fact he seems to have an Adam Dunn-esque knowledge of the strikezone. His 128 isolated OBP has been a very pleasant surprise for Atlanta, regardless of how he is hitting the ball. Even during the last two weeks, when his BA has taken a nose-dice, he has still been getting on base almost 40% of the time. That is a very nice ingredient for any ML bench.
As long as he can continue hitting the ball on the ground and watching the strikezone, Blanco should actually end up being a very key piece to the Braves success in 2008.
But what has been the key to Blanco's success so far? Obviously coming into this season, there were a lot of concerns amongst Braves fans as to whether or not he would be able to have any success against ML pitching given his almost complete lack of pop. Has that been the case?
The short answer? Yes.
Let's take a look at how NL hitters -- as well as his Atlanta teammates -- have done in some situations compared to Gregor:
First, we'll take a look at the percentage of plate appearances which end in the ball being hit to the outfield and how often said PAs end in hits.
National League: 37.78% of 29,470 PAs have ended with the ball reaching the OF
Atlanta Braves: 40.33% of 1,840 PAs have ended with ball reaching the OF
Gregor Blanco: 27.78% of 108 PAs have ended with the ball reaching the OF
Obviously there's a huge discrepancy there. And so far, those concerns about Blanco's lack of power have certainly proven true.
However, while he hasn't been able to routinely get the ball out of the infield, with his speed, that hasn't necessarily been a had thing for him. His rate of hitting the ball somewhere on the infield is right with the rest of the league and his teammates, but the big difference is his running ability has allowed him to get on at a .222 clip while the rest of the league sees balls hit on the infield end up as an out 78% of the time. So, he certainly has that going for him.
But is he going to be able to keep these numbers up to remain a productive members of the Braves? Considering his current batting average on balls in play (BABiP) is at a very high .364 mark -- where as the average hitter generally has a BABiP around the .300 mark -- it doesn't seem that way. And this has already started to shine through. Over the past two weeks, Blanco's BABiP has been .143 and he has seen his batting average drop 35 percentage points over that time.
All hope is not lost with Blanco, however. Another surprising aspect of his game has been the fact he seems to have an Adam Dunn-esque knowledge of the strikezone. His 128 isolated OBP has been a very pleasant surprise for Atlanta, regardless of how he is hitting the ball. Even during the last two weeks, when his BA has taken a nose-dice, he has still been getting on base almost 40% of the time. That is a very nice ingredient for any ML bench.
As long as he can continue hitting the ball on the ground and watching the strikezone, Blanco should actually end up being a very key piece to the Braves success in 2008.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Some Random Notes For Wednesday
Chipper Jones Approaching Rare Territory
With Chipper hitting his 398th career homer tonight against the Mets, he moved one step closer to joining a very elite group.
Since 1950, there has only been five players who have posted 400 career homers, an OPS+ over 140, an OBP over .400 and a SLG over .540 while making 8000+ trips to the plate.
Doesn't matter how you slice it, that is one hell of a fivesome for any player to be a part of.
A Surprising Name
The list of players who have the lowest AB/HR rate is full of names that wouldn't surprise you -- Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley and Alfonso Soriano -- but the name that is at the top of that list? Cardinals RF Ryan Ludwick, with 12 homers in 126 ABs.
Arizona Aces
Entering tonight, the Diamondbacks' top two starters, Danny Haren and Brandon Webb, were one and two in the NL in WHIP. Over the past twenty years in the Senior Circuit, only once has a team saw two members of their rotation atop that list. Johnson/Schilling? Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz? Swift/Burkett? Clemens/Pettite? Actually, you need look no further than last year's San Diego Padres with Jake Peavy and Chris Young.
On the Basepaths
The Dodgers, Rays and Astros are currently on pace to steal 160+ bases as a team, something the Majors hasn't seen since the Reds, Astros and Dodgers accomplished it in 1999.
'08 Arroyo/Harang/Volquez/Cueto = '03 Wood/Prior/Zambrano/Clement?
In 2003, Dusty Baker used his big four to the tune of 838 innings pitched in the 126 games they started. So far this season, Dusty has used his big four in over 225 innings in the 38 games they have started. That averages out to 6.65 IP/GS for the '03 foursome and 5.99 IP/GS for the foursome he has in his rotation this season. Definitely something to keep an eye on, especially with Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto being so young, and having even less experience at the ML level than Wood and Prior did when Baker ran them into the ground.
With Chipper hitting his 398th career homer tonight against the Mets, he moved one step closer to joining a very elite group.
Since 1950, there has only been five players who have posted 400 career homers, an OPS+ over 140, an OBP over .400 and a SLG over .540 while making 8000+ trips to the plate.
| Player | HR | OPS+ | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Bonds | 762 | 182 | .444 | .607 |
| Frank Thomas | 519 | 157 | .420 | .558 |
| Jim Thome | 515 | 149 | .408 | .562 |
| Manny Ramirez | 498 | 154 | .409 | .591 |
| Jeff Bagwell | 449 | 149 | .408 | .540 |
A Surprising Name
The list of players who have the lowest AB/HR rate is full of names that wouldn't surprise you -- Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley and Alfonso Soriano -- but the name that is at the top of that list? Cardinals RF Ryan Ludwick, with 12 homers in 126 ABs.
Arizona Aces
Entering tonight, the Diamondbacks' top two starters, Danny Haren and Brandon Webb, were one and two in the NL in WHIP. Over the past twenty years in the Senior Circuit, only once has a team saw two members of their rotation atop that list. Johnson/Schilling? Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz? Swift/Burkett? Clemens/Pettite? Actually, you need look no further than last year's San Diego Padres with Jake Peavy and Chris Young.
On the Basepaths
The Dodgers, Rays and Astros are currently on pace to steal 160+ bases as a team, something the Majors hasn't seen since the Reds, Astros and Dodgers accomplished it in 1999.
'08 Arroyo/Harang/Volquez/Cueto = '03 Wood/Prior/Zambrano/Clement?
In 2003, Dusty Baker used his big four to the tune of 838 innings pitched in the 126 games they started. So far this season, Dusty has used his big four in over 225 innings in the 38 games they have started. That averages out to 6.65 IP/GS for the '03 foursome and 5.99 IP/GS for the foursome he has in his rotation this season. Definitely something to keep an eye on, especially with Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto being so young, and having even less experience at the ML level than Wood and Prior did when Baker ran them into the ground.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
A Deeper Look at Kelly Johnson & Platoons
So, earlier today, I took a look at Jeff Francoeur and how he related to players who were not only his positional peers, but also very close to him statistically. In doing so, I was actually surprised to see to see the names which appeared on the list, despite the amount of flack Francoeur gets for not living up to the high expectations Braves fans have placed on him. Another hot topic as of late has been Bobby Cox's insistence on occasionally platooning out Kelly Johnson with Martin Prado, prior to his injury, or Omar Infante, now that he has returned from the disabled list. The question has been asked numerous times as to whether or not this is truly a decision that is beneficial to the Braves lineup, or detrimental to it.
This lead me to once again hit the stats and see just how Kelly compares to those other 2B in the Majors during the Post-Strike Era (PSE) who have put up comparable stats through this point in their career. Now, granted, Kelly hasn't played second during his entire tenure at the big league level, but his approach at the plate has not been impacted by this, and I don't think anyone can argue that his future in the Majors is likely at second.
For this group of players, my qualifiers were players who made their debut in the PSE, had at least 1000 plate appearances in their first three seasons, put up an OBP over .340, a SLG over .425 and an OPS+ over 100 while playing 60% of their games at second (to qualify Kelly).
Once again, to the table we go...
Quite the interesting list.
Of course, the names Utley and Cano are going to be on there, as they -- along with Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla -- are the players on top of the 2B mountain. I think the most surprising names are Marcus Giles and Junior Spivey, however. Of course, we're all familiar with Giles and the controversy that has popped up since his downfall, which began in 2006, which makes it even more frustrating to have us all be reminded that he was once putting up numbers comparable to what the best 2B in the league are doing now. The other name, Spivey, is a huge shocker. A lot of people forget just how good he was in 2002 -- actually garnering some MVP votes for the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.
And then there is Ian Kinsler, who is essentially the American League's equivalent of Kelly Johnson. Both players are 26 years of age, and have stats which are very close to being equal. The only huge difference between the two is Kinsler has a bit more power (which can likely be attributed to playing in Arlington) and Kelly has a higher PA/BB rate (which has also contributed to his having a higher strikeout rate).
So, the question to be asked here is this: Would any manager platoon Utley, Cano or Kinsler? I believe the more than obvious answer here is "no, of course not."
Now, if there is one thing Braves fans have come to realize over the course of the past eighteen years it is Bobby Cox has a tendency to work in a possible platoon on any occasion where he feels a LH starter doesn't have what it takes to stand tall with the rest of the league's average players at their position.
I'll set the qualifier as two players of differing handiness who both saw over 30% of the team's starts at a position.
Let's take a look at some of those platoons over the years...
Doesn't take much to notice there has been a whole lot of platooning going on down in A-town over the past two decades.
So, where does this leave Kelly Johnson and his chances of getting the 600+ plate appearances he did last season? Honestly, not good. If there is one thing the platoon chart has shown is, it is that Bobby Cox has no problem benching a superior LHB just to play the matchup against a LHP. And with Omar Infante coming out of the gates hot this season, this could very easily turn into a situation where Infante gets a lot more playing time than he normally would. The fortunate thing is, unlike last season with the Harris/Diaz situation, Johnson is going to be guaranteed more starts because he is the lefty in any possible platoon scenario. While Cox has routinely shown he strongly favors LHP/RHB matchups, he also has a soft-spot for RHP/LHB matchups, as well, so it isn't likely Infante will be stealing any starts from Kelly with a righty on the mound.
This lead me to once again hit the stats and see just how Kelly compares to those other 2B in the Majors during the Post-Strike Era (PSE) who have put up comparable stats through this point in their career. Now, granted, Kelly hasn't played second during his entire tenure at the big league level, but his approach at the plate has not been impacted by this, and I don't think anyone can argue that his future in the Majors is likely at second.
For this group of players, my qualifiers were players who made their debut in the PSE, had at least 1000 plate appearances in their first three seasons, put up an OBP over .340, a SLG over .425 and an OPS+ over 100 while playing 60% of their games at second (to qualify Kelly).
Once again, to the table we go...
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Johnson | 1093 | .358 | .441 | 109 |
| Robinson Cano | 1728 | .346 | .489 | 117 |
| Marcus Giles | 1150 | .362 | .476 | 115 |
| Ian Kinsler | 1244 | .353 | .446 | 109 |
| Junior Spivey | 1229 | .363 | .453 | 105 |
| Chase Utley | 1067 | .350 | .496 | 115 |
Quite the interesting list.
Of course, the names Utley and Cano are going to be on there, as they -- along with Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla -- are the players on top of the 2B mountain. I think the most surprising names are Marcus Giles and Junior Spivey, however. Of course, we're all familiar with Giles and the controversy that has popped up since his downfall, which began in 2006, which makes it even more frustrating to have us all be reminded that he was once putting up numbers comparable to what the best 2B in the league are doing now. The other name, Spivey, is a huge shocker. A lot of people forget just how good he was in 2002 -- actually garnering some MVP votes for the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.
And then there is Ian Kinsler, who is essentially the American League's equivalent of Kelly Johnson. Both players are 26 years of age, and have stats which are very close to being equal. The only huge difference between the two is Kinsler has a bit more power (which can likely be attributed to playing in Arlington) and Kelly has a higher PA/BB rate (which has also contributed to his having a higher strikeout rate).
So, the question to be asked here is this: Would any manager platoon Utley, Cano or Kinsler? I believe the more than obvious answer here is "no, of course not."
Now, if there is one thing Braves fans have come to realize over the course of the past eighteen years it is Bobby Cox has a tendency to work in a possible platoon on any occasion where he feels a LH starter doesn't have what it takes to stand tall with the rest of the league's average players at their position.
I'll set the qualifier as two players of differing handiness who both saw over 30% of the team's starts at a position.
Let's take a look at some of those platoons over the years...
| Year | POS | LHB | RHB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1B | Sid Bream | Brian Hunter |
| 1993 | CF | Deion Sanders | Otis Nixon (SH) |
| 1997 | RF | Michael Tucker | Andruw Jones |
| 1998 | 2B | Keith Lockhart | Tony Graffanino |
| SS | Ozzie Guillen | Walt Weiss (SH) | |
| 1999 | 1B | Ryan Klesko Randall Simon | Brian Hunter |
| SS | Ozzie Guillen | Walt Weiss (SH) | |
| LF | Ryan Klesko | Gerald Williams | |
| 2000 | 2B | Keith Lockhart | Quilvio Veras |
| SS | Rafael Furcal (SH) | Walt Weiss (SH) | |
| 2001 | 1B | Rico Brogna | Wes Helms |
| 2B | Quilvio Veras (SH) | Marcus Giles | |
| 2002 | 1B | Matt Franco | Julio Franco |
| 2004 | 1B | Adam LaRoche | Julio Franco |
| LF | Charles Thomas | Eli Marrero | |
| 2005 | 1B | Adam LaRoche | Julio Franco |
| LF | Kelly Johnson Ryan Langerhans | Brian Jordan | |
| 2007 | LF | Willie Harris | Matt Diaz |
So, where does this leave Kelly Johnson and his chances of getting the 600+ plate appearances he did last season? Honestly, not good. If there is one thing the platoon chart has shown is, it is that Bobby Cox has no problem benching a superior LHB just to play the matchup against a LHP. And with Omar Infante coming out of the gates hot this season, this could very easily turn into a situation where Infante gets a lot more playing time than he normally would. The fortunate thing is, unlike last season with the Harris/Diaz situation, Johnson is going to be guaranteed more starts because he is the lefty in any possible platoon scenario. While Cox has routinely shown he strongly favors LHP/RHB matchups, he also has a soft-spot for RHP/LHB matchups, as well, so it isn't likely Infante will be stealing any starts from Kelly with a righty on the mound.
The Mediocrity of Jeff Francoeur
So, there has been a lot of concern lately about what the future could possibly hold for Braves RF Jeff Francoeur. With his continued struggles at the plate -- an OPS+ of 87 entering this week's action -- a lot of Braves fans are becoming increasingly worried that Francoeur may not be "The Natural" that so many publications have labeled him since he was drafted in the first round back in 2002.
But is it still too early for the Atlanta faithful to turn their back on the player most in the metro area have been hearing about for almost a decade now? There is no denying the fact Braves fans have been very high on his potential since his days as a two-sport athlete at Parkview High School in Lilburn and because of that, perhaps they have been more willing to give him an extended chance at breaking out at the ML level.
Since late last season, a lot of Braves fans have started to question just what Francoeur is capable of. He has seen his batting average see-saw over his first four seasons, his isoOBP stay in the same 30-45 range, and his isoSLG has dropped from 249 during his rookie season in 2004 to a pedestrian 151 last season. These are certainly not numbers the Braves hoped they would get from the OF prodigy, as he has yet to even live up to the standard set by the average RFs in the National League.
The question is, however, how does Francoeur measure up to some of his peers? To find out, I went over to Baseball Reference's Play Index and took a look at some of the players who have put up comparable stats to Jeff since the Post-Strike Era began in 1995. Some of the names proved to be a little surprising.
The qualifiers I used for the following table were as followed: outfielders who made their ML debut from 1995 to the present, their first four seasons, at least 1800 plate appearances, an OBP less than .350, a SLG greater than .400 and an OPS+ less than 105.
Let's go to the numbers...
Obviously, there are some names on that list which are going to stand out, while others don't exactly impress.
I think the most telling thing about this list of names is the difference in those who
debuted prior to their 24th birthday and those who did so after turning 24.
There is no debating that Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford and Alex Rios have developed into marquees outfielders. And while Johnny Damon has felt the pressures while being in New York, he has still managed to be a very consistent and reliable player, despite being on the downside of his career at this point. Jose Cruz Jr., who came up with the Mariners being touted as one of the best five-tool players of this generation, hasn't lived up to the expectations placed on him, he is still a serviceable ML player who will likely always have a job somewhere for as long as he can lace up his spikes. The only name out of the list of those who debuted at 23 or younger than stands out as a bust is Terrence Long, who was very underwhelming during his ML career, which came to a quiet end after eight seasons.
The 24 and over crowd on the list is full of players who either faded out after a quick start (Cordova, Singleton), are/were serviceable Major Leaguers (Jones, Glanville), or have been fringe players for most of their career (Gibbons). The only real name on that list the jury is still out on is Reed Johnson, who is getting a second chance to prove himself after the Cubs signed him after Toronto released him prior to this season.
So, what is there for us to learn from looking at this list of names and how Francoeur measures up to them?
Well, obviously, Jeff is in very good company with some of the players he has been grouped with here. While it took players like Beltran, Crawford, Damon and Rios a few years to put it all together and have their breakout season, each has developed into a cornerstone for their respective teams -- or, in Damon's case, become a critical piece of a World Series champion.
The refreshing piece for those still holding out on Francoeur is that each of these players made their emergence into stardom in their third or fourth full season in the Majors.
It can be frustrating at times, but let's not write The Natural off just yet.
But is it still too early for the Atlanta faithful to turn their back on the player most in the metro area have been hearing about for almost a decade now? There is no denying the fact Braves fans have been very high on his potential since his days as a two-sport athlete at Parkview High School in Lilburn and because of that, perhaps they have been more willing to give him an extended chance at breaking out at the ML level.
Since late last season, a lot of Braves fans have started to question just what Francoeur is capable of. He has seen his batting average see-saw over his first four seasons, his isoOBP stay in the same 30-45 range, and his isoSLG has dropped from 249 during his rookie season in 2004 to a pedestrian 151 last season. These are certainly not numbers the Braves hoped they would get from the OF prodigy, as he has yet to even live up to the standard set by the average RFs in the National League.
The question is, however, how does Francoeur measure up to some of his peers? To find out, I went over to Baseball Reference's Play Index and took a look at some of the players who have put up comparable stats to Jeff since the Post-Strike Era began in 1995. Some of the names proved to be a little surprising.
The qualifiers I used for the following table were as followed: outfielders who made their ML debut from 1995 to the present, their first four seasons, at least 1800 plate appearances, an OBP less than .350, a SLG greater than .400 and an OPS+ less than 105.
Let's go to the numbers...
| Player | Debut Age | PA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Francoeur | 21 | 1845 | .318 | .457 | 99 |
| Carl Crawford | 20 | 2298 | .320 | .421 | 97 |
| Carlos Beltran | 21 | 1879 | .340 | .457 | 100 |
| Johnny Damon | 21 | 2006 | .330 | .405 | 89 |
| Alex Rios | 23 | 2188 | .338 | .453 | 105 |
| Jose Cruz Jr. | 23 | 1950 | .335 | .454 | 100 |
| Terrence Long | 23 | 2002 | .323 | .417 | 94 |
| Jacque Jones | 24 | 2042 | .331 | .465 | 103 |
| Jay Gibbons | 24 | 1849 | .315 | .451 | 102 |
| Marty Cordova | 25 | 2130 | .344 | .448 | 102 |
| Doug Glanville | 25 | 2026 | .342 | .407 | 91 |
| Reed Johnson | 26 | 1995 | .348 | .423 | 99 |
| Chris Singleton | 26 | 2025 | .313 | .428 | 90 |
I think the most telling thing about this list of names is the difference in those who
debuted prior to their 24th birthday and those who did so after turning 24.
There is no debating that Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford and Alex Rios have developed into marquees outfielders. And while Johnny Damon has felt the pressures while being in New York, he has still managed to be a very consistent and reliable player, despite being on the downside of his career at this point. Jose Cruz Jr., who came up with the Mariners being touted as one of the best five-tool players of this generation, hasn't lived up to the expectations placed on him, he is still a serviceable ML player who will likely always have a job somewhere for as long as he can lace up his spikes. The only name out of the list of those who debuted at 23 or younger than stands out as a bust is Terrence Long, who was very underwhelming during his ML career, which came to a quiet end after eight seasons.
The 24 and over crowd on the list is full of players who either faded out after a quick start (Cordova, Singleton), are/were serviceable Major Leaguers (Jones, Glanville), or have been fringe players for most of their career (Gibbons). The only real name on that list the jury is still out on is Reed Johnson, who is getting a second chance to prove himself after the Cubs signed him after Toronto released him prior to this season.
So, what is there for us to learn from looking at this list of names and how Francoeur measures up to them?
Well, obviously, Jeff is in very good company with some of the players he has been grouped with here. While it took players like Beltran, Crawford, Damon and Rios a few years to put it all together and have their breakout season, each has developed into a cornerstone for their respective teams -- or, in Damon's case, become a critical piece of a World Series champion.
The refreshing piece for those still holding out on Francoeur is that each of these players made their emergence into stardom in their third or fourth full season in the Majors.
It can be frustrating at times, but let's not write The Natural off just yet.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
A Deeper Look at Mark Teixeira's Slow Start
So, everyone has been trying to justify Mark Teixeira's slow start in 2008 by saying that he's routinely been a player who takes a while to get things going. But is that really the case?
I decided to dig a little further on Tex and see if he really deserved the reputation everyone has been saddling him with over the past six weeks. To do this, I split up his seasons into three different sections: the first fifty games, the second fifty games, and the remainder of the season. So let's start off by taking a look at how Mark has started each of his seasons in the Majors.
Now, how do these numbers compare to Mark's 2008 numbers so far?
Granted, entering today, he had played in forty games, ten short of the amount I used to split up the numbers over the course of his career, but even with those ten games being absent, Mark is still nowhere near where he has routinely been at this point in the season. Even when he struggled out of the gate during his rookie season, his power numbers were still .057 points higher.
So what is going on with Teixeira? Is it the adjustment he is having to make to NL pitching? Well, possibly, but considering the success he had over two months last season, and the fact he never really struggled during interleague prior to that, it's hard to say.
Probably the most alarming thing so far this season has been the drop off in isoSLG that Tex's numbers have taken. The only season he hadn't posted an isoSLG over .220 at this point in the season was in 2006, and even then, his average and OBP were still at a respectable level.
Something to consider is just how much Mark has struggled at getting solid contact. Entering this season, on balls Teixeira put into play, he wasn't getting the ball out of the infield in 28.47% of his plate appearances. This season, that number has jumped up to 37.14%. So, while Tex has seen his strikeout rate drop this season -- from 18.52% of his PA entering this season to 12.57% in '08 -- the balls he does put into play have often turned into infield outs.
The oddity in this is that his isoOBP is still on pace with that he's put up previously to start the season. So, I don't think it is so much that Mark is swinging at bad pitches, it's seems more like he's pressing and simply struggling to make good contact. Even his pitch count totals are right on pace with what he has normally put up -- the same percentage of first-pitch PAs as well as PAs were he was behind the count or had two strikes on him.
Alright, enough of dealing what has been so far, what can the Braves expect for the remainder of the season based on Teixeira's career trends?
His overall totals from the second set of fifty games aren't much off from those to start the season, however his power numbers do take a significant jump up, as his isoSLG makes a leap from a respectable .222 to a very impressive .273 clip.
So, how can we use those numbers to project what Tex is likely to do over the second fifty games of 2008? Well, let us first look at the difference over the course of his career.
His batting average has seen a slight drop (-1.45%), on base percentage has stayed about the same (-0.28%) and his slugging percentage has went up (9.44%).
Based off his numbers so far, his second fifty games of 2008 should produce numbers comparable to this:
Still far below his career numbers, but we all know that nothing is a guarantee in baseball.
Now, let's wrap things up by looking at how Tex wraps things up.
Obviously, Mark has really exploded down the stretch over his career. The only season he hasn't put up MVP caliber numbers in the season's last ten weeks or so was his rookie season in 2003. Since then, he has become an absolute beast during the dog days of the summer.
His batting average makes a nice jump (13.60%), his OBP also rises (8.33%) and his slugging percentage goes up, as well (5.14%).
Alright, now, assuming he is able to make those same improvements to the projections I just laid out for the second third of the season, how does his 2008 numbers down the stretch look?
Still not mindblowing numbers, but certainly better than anything we've seen up until this point.
Alright, now, if we combine the three totals for 2008 -- what he has actually done thus far, along with the two projections -- what is the worst-case scenario for Teixeira's season?
Definitely not the type of stats the Braves want out of their cleanup hitter in 2008, but certainly more appealing than what they had to put up with out of Andruw Jones last season.
I decided to dig a little further on Tex and see if he really deserved the reputation everyone has been saddling him with over the past six weeks. To do this, I split up his seasons into three different sections: the first fifty games, the second fifty games, and the remainder of the season. So let's start off by taking a look at how Mark has started each of his seasons in the Majors.
| First 50 Games | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2003 | .242 | .335 | .466 | .801 |
| 2004 | .247 | .346 | .484 | .830 |
| 2005 | .293 | .350 | .548 | .898 |
| 2006 | .284 | .380 | .447 | .827 |
| 2007 | .305 | .390 | .537 | .927 |
| Total | .276 | .361 | .498 | .859 |
| First 50 Games of 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2008 | .247 | .337 | .409 | .746 |
Granted, entering today, he had played in forty games, ten short of the amount I used to split up the numbers over the course of his career, but even with those ten games being absent, Mark is still nowhere near where he has routinely been at this point in the season. Even when he struggled out of the gate during his rookie season, his power numbers were still .057 points higher.
So what is going on with Teixeira? Is it the adjustment he is having to make to NL pitching? Well, possibly, but considering the success he had over two months last season, and the fact he never really struggled during interleague prior to that, it's hard to say.
Probably the most alarming thing so far this season has been the drop off in isoSLG that Tex's numbers have taken. The only season he hadn't posted an isoSLG over .220 at this point in the season was in 2006, and even then, his average and OBP were still at a respectable level.
Something to consider is just how much Mark has struggled at getting solid contact. Entering this season, on balls Teixeira put into play, he wasn't getting the ball out of the infield in 28.47% of his plate appearances. This season, that number has jumped up to 37.14%. So, while Tex has seen his strikeout rate drop this season -- from 18.52% of his PA entering this season to 12.57% in '08 -- the balls he does put into play have often turned into infield outs.
The oddity in this is that his isoOBP is still on pace with that he's put up previously to start the season. So, I don't think it is so much that Mark is swinging at bad pitches, it's seems more like he's pressing and simply struggling to make good contact. Even his pitch count totals are right on pace with what he has normally put up -- the same percentage of first-pitch PAs as well as PAs were he was behind the count or had two strikes on him.
Alright, enough of dealing what has been so far, what can the Braves expect for the remainder of the season based on Teixeira's career trends?
| Second 50 Games | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2003 | .270 | .343 | .486 | .829 |
| 2004 | .278 | .351 | .620 | .971 |
| 2005 | .270 | .366 | .545 | .911 |
| 2006 | .258 | .336 | .479 | .815 |
| 2007 | .287 | .404 | .597 | 1.001 |
| Total | .272 | .360 | .545 | .905 |
So, how can we use those numbers to project what Tex is likely to do over the second fifty games of 2008? Well, let us first look at the difference over the course of his career.
His batting average has seen a slight drop (-1.45%), on base percentage has stayed about the same (-0.28%) and his slugging percentage has went up (9.44%).
Based off his numbers so far, his second fifty games of 2008 should produce numbers comparable to this:
| Second 50 Games of 2008 (Projection) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2008 | .243 | .336 | .448 | .784 |
Now, let's wrap things up by looking at how Tex wraps things up.
| Remainder of Season | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2003 | .262 | .315 | .486 | .801 |
| 2004 | .320 | .415 | .576 | .991 |
| 2005 | .335 | .415 | .623 | 1.038 |
| 2006 | .300 | .392 | .599 | .991 |
| 2007 | .333 | .410 | .553 | .963 |
| Total | .309 | .390 | .573 | .963 |
His batting average makes a nice jump (13.60%), his OBP also rises (8.33%) and his slugging percentage goes up, as well (5.14%).
Alright, now, assuming he is able to make those same improvements to the projections I just laid out for the second third of the season, how does his 2008 numbers down the stretch look?
| Remainder of 2008 (Projection) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2008 | .276 | .364 | .471 | .835 |
Alright, now, if we combine the three totals for 2008 -- what he has actually done thus far, along with the two projections -- what is the worst-case scenario for Teixeira's season?
| Overall Projection for 2008 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2008 | .255 | .346 | .444 | .790 |
Random Braves Notes
Getting Things Started
So far this season, the Braves have seen the first hitter of an inning get on base 109 times out of 371 chances. That's good for a .294 OBP. The rest of the NL is putting up a .323 OBP when starting off an inning, however. That's not a very concerning difference, but obviously, your chances of scoring runs is greatly enhanced if you can get that first runner on base.
A much bigger concern shows it's face when you limit those plate appearances to just those starting the game. In the only point during the game you are guaranteed to have your leadoff hitter actually be such, the Braves have seen their top-of-the-order guy reach base only 21.4% of the time. This is over 0100 OBP points below the NL average. While teams like Arizona and Florida have seen their leadoff hitters (Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez, respectively) the Braves have seen Kelly Johnson put up an atrocious .291 OPS to start the game.
Feeling the Pressure
Another area the Braves have also seen their bats struggle has been in high leverage situations. The leverage of a situation is based off of the leverage index, which weighs plate appearances based on how much they influence a team's win probability. High leverage situations account for about 20% of all plays, while medium and low leverage both account for around 40% each.
Here's how the Braves look in 2008:
Compare that to the NL average thus far:
This creates some very odd discrepancies for when the Braves are scoring their runs.
While the National League is averaging 38.4% of their runs scored in high leverage situations, the Braves are only putting up 30.5% of their runs in similar situations. Considering these high leverage situations are usually ones with games on the line, that statistic doesn't bode well for Atlanta, and certainly sheds some light on why they are 2-12 (.143) in games settled by one run.
Calls to the Bullpen
Through the first 42 games of the season, the Braves have already seen their relievers make 143 appearances. Factoring out the Braves lone complete game from Tim Hudson, that averages out to 3.49 relief appearances per game for the Braves. While that isn't far above the NL average of 3.03 relief appearances per game in non-CGs, it's one of those stats that will do much more damage over time. Especially considering other RP in the NL are averaging 1.10 IP per appearance, while the Braves are averaging just under an inning per outing.
Only time will tell if Bobby Cox can continue making the trip out to the mound at this pace without burning out some of his relievers, which could be quite damning for a team that has already lost Peter Moylan for the season, Rafael Soriano for an extended period of time, and don't have a strong grasp on when Mike Gonzalez will return.
So far this season, the Braves have seen the first hitter of an inning get on base 109 times out of 371 chances. That's good for a .294 OBP. The rest of the NL is putting up a .323 OBP when starting off an inning, however. That's not a very concerning difference, but obviously, your chances of scoring runs is greatly enhanced if you can get that first runner on base.
A much bigger concern shows it's face when you limit those plate appearances to just those starting the game. In the only point during the game you are guaranteed to have your leadoff hitter actually be such, the Braves have seen their top-of-the-order guy reach base only 21.4% of the time. This is over 0100 OBP points below the NL average. While teams like Arizona and Florida have seen their leadoff hitters (Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez, respectively) the Braves have seen Kelly Johnson put up an atrocious .291 OPS to start the game.
Feeling the Pressure
Another area the Braves have also seen their bats struggle has been in high leverage situations. The leverage of a situation is based off of the leverage index, which weighs plate appearances based on how much they influence a team's win probability. High leverage situations account for about 20% of all plays, while medium and low leverage both account for around 40% each.
Here's how the Braves look in 2008:
| Atlanta Braves | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| High | .238 | .312 | .310 | .622 |
| Medium | .272 | .341 | .426 | .768 |
| Low | .305 | .374 | .487 | .861 |
| National League | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| High | .257 | .341 | .392 | .732 |
| Medium | .263 | .333 | .417 | .750 |
| Low | .258 | .330 | .410 | .740 |
This creates some very odd discrepancies for when the Braves are scoring their runs.
While the National League is averaging 38.4% of their runs scored in high leverage situations, the Braves are only putting up 30.5% of their runs in similar situations. Considering these high leverage situations are usually ones with games on the line, that statistic doesn't bode well for Atlanta, and certainly sheds some light on why they are 2-12 (.143) in games settled by one run.
Calls to the Bullpen
Through the first 42 games of the season, the Braves have already seen their relievers make 143 appearances. Factoring out the Braves lone complete game from Tim Hudson, that averages out to 3.49 relief appearances per game for the Braves. While that isn't far above the NL average of 3.03 relief appearances per game in non-CGs, it's one of those stats that will do much more damage over time. Especially considering other RP in the NL are averaging 1.10 IP per appearance, while the Braves are averaging just under an inning per outing.
Only time will tell if Bobby Cox can continue making the trip out to the mound at this pace without burning out some of his relievers, which could be quite damning for a team that has already lost Peter Moylan for the season, Rafael Soriano for an extended period of time, and don't have a strong grasp on when Mike Gonzalez will return.
The Theory of Saving Some For Tomorrow
It has been a long-standing mindset among baseball fans that instances like this don't often work out for the offense of the team putting up double-digits, but is that really the case?
So far this season, ML teams have scored ten or more runs 69 times and then gone on to have a game the following day.
One of the surprising things about this is the fact the National League has accounted for over half of these occurrences (39, compared to the AL's 30).
But how does the bounce-back the following day differ between the two leagues?
Well, the American League hasn't had a great deal of trouble when it comes to scoring runs the day after an offensive explosion. In 56.7% of those thirty games, teams have either matched or scored more than their season average. The team that has been the least effected by this has been the Detroit Tigers, who have managed to better their season average the next day a remarkable four times, including exploding for nineteen runs against the Rangers a day after scoring on Texas, and then putting up another eight runs the following day. On the flip-side are those very same Texas Rangers, who have managed to score less than their season average three times after putting up double-digits the day before.
Over in the senior circuit, however, things are the complete opposite. National League ballclubs have been unable to match their season average 56.4% of the time. The entire NL East have been struggling mightily especially, putting up less almost 80% of the time. Only two teams (Houston and Milwaukee) have managed to put up better than their normal pace without sputtering at any point. Two East teams (Florida and Philadelphia) have been the worst offenders, managing to score less than their season average every time they have scored ten-plus the day before.
What does all this tell us about conserving runs?
Well, for starters, it's still a relatively small sample size, with only 69 occurrences so far this season. But, there isn't that much substance to the theory of teams being greatly effected by an offensive output the day before. Despite the disparity between the leagues, the overall average for teams bettering or matching their season average is still at 49.3% for the 2008 season.
So far this season, ML teams have scored ten or more runs 69 times and then gone on to have a game the following day.
One of the surprising things about this is the fact the National League has accounted for over half of these occurrences (39, compared to the AL's 30).
But how does the bounce-back the following day differ between the two leagues?
Well, the American League hasn't had a great deal of trouble when it comes to scoring runs the day after an offensive explosion. In 56.7% of those thirty games, teams have either matched or scored more than their season average. The team that has been the least effected by this has been the Detroit Tigers, who have managed to better their season average the next day a remarkable four times, including exploding for nineteen runs against the Rangers a day after scoring on Texas, and then putting up another eight runs the following day. On the flip-side are those very same Texas Rangers, who have managed to score less than their season average three times after putting up double-digits the day before.
Over in the senior circuit, however, things are the complete opposite. National League ballclubs have been unable to match their season average 56.4% of the time. The entire NL East have been struggling mightily especially, putting up less almost 80% of the time. Only two teams (Houston and Milwaukee) have managed to put up better than their normal pace without sputtering at any point. Two East teams (Florida and Philadelphia) have been the worst offenders, managing to score less than their season average every time they have scored ten-plus the day before.
What does all this tell us about conserving runs?
Well, for starters, it's still a relatively small sample size, with only 69 occurrences so far this season. But, there isn't that much substance to the theory of teams being greatly effected by an offensive output the day before. Despite the disparity between the leagues, the overall average for teams bettering or matching their season average is still at 49.3% for the 2008 season.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Power Rankings -- 5/17/07
| Rank | Last | Team | W-L |
| (1) | 2 (+1) | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27-15 |
| The Diamondbacks continue to do everything right -- second in the NL in both runs scored and runs allowed. The emergence of Max Scherzer in a rotation that already has Brandon Webb, Danny Haren and Micah Owings makes them even stronger. The offense continues to show, top-to-bottom, they know how to bring the thunder. | |||
| (2) | 3 (+1) | Boston Red Sox | 24-19 |
| The Red Sox offense has lived up to expectations, even with the struggles of David Ortiz. The bats they have coming off the bench easily makes them the deepest team in the Majors. While the rotation has struggled at times, the bullpen -- especially Okajima -- has been absolutely lights out. | |||
| (3) | 4 (+1) | Cleveland Indians | 22-20 |
| The biggest surprise of the ML season thus far has been Cliff Lee finally putting everything together and becoming what the Indians had long hoped he would. A big surprise has also been the struggles of the Cleveland offense. Don't expect Garko, Gutierrez and Hafner to continue to put up sub-100 OPS+ numbers for much longer. | |||
| (4) | 10 (+6) | Chicago Cubs | 26-16 |
| Despite the struggles of the greatly overpaid Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly, the Cubbies pitching staff has been absolutely lights out this season. Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol could be the best one-two bullpen punch in the Majors. Fukudome and Geovany Soto have also proven to be huge surprises and the perfect compliments to the trio of Lee, Soriano and Ramirez. | |||
| (5) | 13 (+8) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21-20 |
| Even though the Dodgers offense has to deal with Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent and Juan Pierre on an everyday basis, the youth movement of James Loney, Blake DeWitt, Matt Kemp and Andre Either finally give the LA fans long-term hope. Derek Lowe and Brad Penny are both putting up sub-100 ERA+ numbers right now, but Hiroki Kuroda has become a solid number three starters. | |||
| (6) | 16 (+10) | Tampa Bay Rays | 25-17 |
| Up to this point, James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza have proven Troy Percival's declaration correct -- they do seem like the second coming of Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. If the young trio can continue their dominant ways, it won't matter what the offense does. It's safe to assume that Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria won't continue their sub-par performances, however. | |||
| (7) | 5 (-2) | Philadelphia Phillies | 24-19 |
| The surprise has been the struggles of the Phillies offense despite playing in uber hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. The bigger surprise has been how dominant Brad Lidge is. Factor in J.C. Romero and Chad Durbin, as well, and the defending NL East champs have the dominant bullpen they lacked a season ago. | |||
| (8) | 6 (-2) | Atlanta Braves | 21-20 |
| How the Braves have managed to allow the least amount of runs per game in the NL is a huge mystery given the injuries that have already stricken their pitching staff. Hampton, Glavine, Smoltz, Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano have all missed extensive time, but youngster Jair Jurrjens has been lights out. | |||
| (9) | 9 (--) | Los Angeles Angels | 25-19 |
| Despite the missed time for John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have combined with Jon Garland to be a very strong rotation. | |||
| (10) | 26 (+16) | Oakland Athletics | 23-20 |
| Harden, Blanton, Chad Gaudin, Dana Eveland and Justin Duchscherer have been the best fivesome in the Majors in '08. And even with a list of no-namers rounding out their lineup, they are scoring runs thanks mainly to a team isoOBP of 84. | |||
| (11) | 15 (+4) | Minnesota Twins | 21-20 |
| (12) | 7 (-5) | Milwaukee Brewers | 20-21 |
| (13) | 8 (-5) | New York Yankees | 20-22 |
| (14) | 1 (-13) | Detroit Tigers | 16-26 |
| (15) | 20 (+5) | St. Louis Cardinals | 24-20 |
| (16) | 21 (+5) | Florida Marlins | 23-18 |
| (17) | 11 (-6) | New York Mets | 20-19 |
| (18) | 17 (-1) | Texas Rangers | 21-22 |
| (19) | 14 (-5) | Houston Astros | 24-19 |
| (20) | 25 (+5) | Chicago White Sox | 21-20 |
| (21) | 24 (+3) | Pittsburgh Pirates | 20-22 |
| (22) | 12 (-10) | San Diego Padres | 16-27 |
| (23) | 28 (+5) | Toronto Blue Jays | 21-23 |
| (24) | 23 (-1) | Washington Nationals | 18-25 |
| (25) | 22 (-3) | Baltimore Orioles | 22-19 |
| (26) | 27 (+1) | Cincinnati Reds | 19-23 |
| (27) | 18 (-9) | Kansas City Royals | 20-21 |
| (28) | 30 (+2) | Colorado Rockies | 15-27 |
| (29) | 29 (--) | San Francisco Giants | 17-26 |
| (30) | 19 (-11) | Seattle Mariners | 16-27 |
Greatest Jump: Oakland Athletics (+16)
Greatest Drop: Detroit Tigers (-13)
(Note: Movement refers to team's placement on my pre-season rankings.)
Calculated Rankings -- 5/17/08
Here's one of the features I'm gonna try to implement, it's a calculated power ranking. This is going to be a different ranking than my own personal ones, which should generally be published around the same time. The placements are calculated using a weighted system which includes factors such as Pythagorean record, recent performance and opponents record. It is still a work in progress, so there could be some adjustments to the formula as the season goes on.
| Rank | Last | Team | W-L |
| (1) | --- | Arizona Diamondbacks | 27-15 |
| (2) | --- | Tampa Bay Rays | 27-15 |
| (3) | --- | Atlanta Braves | 21-20 |
| (4) | --- | Chicago Cubs | 26-16 |
| (5) | --- | Oakland Athletics | 23-20 |
| (6) | --- | Philadelphia Phillies | 24-19 |
| (7) | --- | Cleveland Indians | 22-20 |
| (8) | --- | Chicago White Sox | 21-20 |
| (9) | --- | Boston Red Sox | 24-19 |
| (10) | --- | Houston Astros | 24-19 |
| (11) | --- | Los Angeles Angels | 25-19 |
| (12) | --- | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21-20 |
| (13) | --- | New York Mets | 20-19 |
| (14) | --- | Minnesota Twins | 21-20 |
| (15) | --- | Florida Marlins | 23-18 |
| (16) | --- | Texas Rangers | 21-22 |
| (17) | --- | Baltimore Orioles | 22-19 |
| (18) | --- | Toronto Blue Jays | 21-23 |
| (19) | --- | St. Louis Cardinals | 24-20 |
| (20) | --- | New York Yankees | 20-22 |
| (21) | --- | Pittsburgh Pirates | 20-22 |
| (22) | --- | Cincinnati Reds | 19-23 |
| (23) | --- | Kansas City Royals | 20-21 |
| (24) | --- | Seattle Mariners | 16-27 |
| (25) | --- | Milwaukee Brewers | 20-21 |
| (26) | --- | Washington Nationals | 18-25 |
| (27) | --- | Detroit Tigers | 16-26 |
| (28) | --- | San Francisco Giants | 17-26 |
| (29) | --- | Colorado Rockies | 15-27 |
| (30) | --- | San Diego Padres | 16-27 |
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