Saturday, August 23, 2008

The Blanco Futility Watch

Yes, my friends, forget the Corky Watch... We've now got the Blanco watch.

And what, exactly, is the Blanco Watch? Well, it has to do with Gregor's lack of extra-base hits.

As you can see from this list, Gregor Blanco is approaching a rather dubious honor: the most PA without reaching twenty extra-base hits. Now, granted, I limited it to post-1990 -- for obvious reasons -- but with a little more playing time, which we all know he'll see, he can possibly reach the coveted top spot.

So, what is it going to take?

Well, right now Blanco has 16 XBH in 454 PA, good for one every 28.375 trips to the plate.

He's averaging 4.37 PA per start (101 starts) and 0.87 PA off the bench (15 games) in the Braves first 130 games. He should end up with around 109 more PA as a starter and around three more off the bench, giving him around 566 PA for the season. And with his 28.375 PA/XBH average, he would end up with right at 19.95 XBH for the season...

Those 566 PA would bump him up into sixth place, past Mike Caruso's 1999 campaign...

Now, I'm sure the top two positions on the list are unobtainable, but will he be able to reach 600 PA? It would only take him 4.57 PA per game, but he'd essentially have to start everyday from here on out. Not only that, but getting the 146 PA would put him slightly over 20 XBH with his current pace.

Can he do it?

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