On Mark Kotsay and Joey Devine

(Note: This was all warranted by a thread concerning the Kotsay/Devine trade on Braves-Nation, you can stroll over there and check it out if you want more context.)

Bottomline is this: I was incredibly high on the Kotsay/Devine trade when it went down because I felt it gave the Braves the one piece they were missing to become a legit contender -- a bonafide CF who can play exceptional defense and supply at least leage-average pop. What they gave up was a piece which they already have a surplus of: RH middle relief type pitchers (see: Yates, Acosta, Boyer, Resop, Stockman, Schreiber); along with RH lights out guys like Soriano and Moylan, and two RH swingmen in Bennett and Carlyle. The Braves were absolutely loaded at the time with RH relievers who were more than capable of getting the job done. So trading one of those, any of those, for a crucial piece like Kotsay was a no-brainer. It could have been Resop, Yates, Boyer whoever. The difference in Devine and all the others, however -- outside of Stockman and Schreiber -- was they had at least somewhat proven themself capable of being an asset at the ML level. Devine was simply the odd man out. I'm sure it came down to either Devine or Acosta, and while both are very comparable, the club obviously had more faith in Acosta (see his 21 outings in '07 compared to Joey's ten).

Remember, this is all the mindset of the organization on January 14th, hindsight is completely 20/20.

Did any of us, be it supporters of the trade or the dijectors, see all the injuries which have befalled the starting rotation? The injuries to both Soriano and Moylan? The struggles of Diaz, Francoeur, Escobar and Johnson? The combined 182 starts between Infante, Blanco and Norton? The team being so far out of the race in July they would deal Mark Teixeira for the much inferior Casey Kotchman? Chipper missing a month of action? Kotsay missing almost two months? Julian Taverez, Vladimir Nunez and Elmer Dessens being crucial parts of the bullpen on August 30th?

No, the answer is not a damn one of us saw any of it coming. Even I, one of the biggest doubters of this team coming into the 2008 season, predicted this type of epic collapse.

Sure, sending Devine to Oakland for Kotsay and then turing around and dealing him to Boston before September looks like a total bitch move at this point. Who wouldn't think so? But at the time, the deal was a very logical one which greatly enhanced what was likely going to be an offense which fell below league average; while the bullpen was left with very few questions or concerns.

Devine simply didn't fit into the equation, no matter if you view him as being just a regular RH reliever or the next Jon Papelbon. Trading away expendable pieces for options which are going to greatly enhance another part of your club is what you do, it's how you build a successful team. Granted, you likely don't trade them for one-off thirty-plus options like Kotsay all the time, but given the Braves current outfield depth all around the Minors, this time it made sense. Did it work out? No, but in this grand game, there's never guarantees.

Somewhere down the line, you think the Twins are going to regret trading away Matt Garza for Delmon Young? You bet your sweet ass they are. Hell, they already do. But I'll say now what I said then, it's a move they could afford to make. They had a lot of questions in their outfield with Torii Hunter going to the Angels and needed to add OF depth. Their strong point at the time was having a slew of young, ML ready starting pitchers -- Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Baker, Bonser -- not to mention they also still had Santana and Liriano was making great progress. So it made perfect sense to acquire a stud OF prospect in Young for a expendable prospect like Garza. And how have things worked out for the Twins? Well, I'd say being sixteen games over .500, 1.5 games back in their division and 2.5 games back in the Wildcard race is pretty damn good.

Does that mean they wouldn't like to have Garza back? Of course not. But they still have the best young overall core of any staff in baseball. They may not have the best 1-2-3 punch, but they certainly have more depth than any other team out there. Is Young going to turn into a legit star? Right now he's putting up pretty mediocre numbers, but he could always be one AB away from turning the corner and becoming the next Carlos Beltran.

How does all of this tie into the Braves? They could very well be in the situation the Twins are in right now and no one would be kicking themselves to any extreme because Joey Devine is putting up a good season in an incredible Oakland bullpen. Hell, if there is one thing which can be learned from this, it's you can have two pitchers like Devine and Brad Ziegler in your bullpen and still be ten games below .500 and twenty games out of first place.

Relievers are only one player. They're going to be lucky to get into half of your team's ballgames. Unless you do have a player like Mo Rivera, Jon Papelbon, Franky Rodriguez or Joe Nathan to close out games for you, almost every part of your bullpen is going to be interchangable and it isn't going to matter from game to game how a reliever performed the day before, or the day before that.

An everyday player is going to be in the lineup most likely 90% of team games and likely come to the plate 600 times in a season. When your options in center heading into a season are two light-hitting players with little to no ML experience, and your offense is already showing possible signs of struggling, what do you move to try and remedy the situation? Well, if one of the more consistent CF (re: consistent, not star-caliber or most productive) of this generation, you attempt to make a move for them.

Do you trade away a SP? Well, no, the Braves actually had to go out and get Jurrjens and Glavine, so that's out of the question.

Do you trade away a bat? Well, no, if the Braves had enough of those, they wouldn't be in this situation.

Do you trade away one of the key prospects? Absolutely not. I'm all for shipping off unproven prospects, but only if you are getting a player who is going to help out the team in the long-term, not essentially a rental like with Kotsay.

How about the bullpen? Well, we've got a lot of righties, and with the addition of Ohman there is now a core of lefties... What could be the most valuable, yet expendable, piece there? Hrm, Joey Devine has a lot of upside, and we've got a couple arms in Acosta, Resop and Stockman who are comparable, so let's send him to Oakland.

Honestly, how can you possibly doubt the logic involved here?

The Blanco Futility Watch

Yes, my friends, forget the Corky Watch... We've now got the Blanco watch.

And what, exactly, is the Blanco Watch? Well, it has to do with Gregor's lack of extra-base hits.

As you can see from this list, Gregor Blanco is approaching a rather dubious honor: the most PA without reaching twenty extra-base hits. Now, granted, I limited it to post-1990 -- for obvious reasons -- but with a little more playing time, which we all know he'll see, he can possibly reach the coveted top spot.

So, what is it going to take?

Well, right now Blanco has 16 XBH in 454 PA, good for one every 28.375 trips to the plate.

He's averaging 4.37 PA per start (101 starts) and 0.87 PA off the bench (15 games) in the Braves first 130 games. He should end up with around 109 more PA as a starter and around three more off the bench, giving him around 566 PA for the season. And with his 28.375 PA/XBH average, he would end up with right at 19.95 XBH for the season...

Those 566 PA would bump him up into sixth place, past Mike Caruso's 1999 campaign...

Now, I'm sure the top two positions on the list are unobtainable, but will he be able to reach 600 PA? It would only take him 4.57 PA per game, but he'd essentially have to start everyday from here on out. Not only that, but getting the 146 PA would put him slightly over 20 XBH with his current pace.

Can he do it?

Power Rankings -- 08/10/08

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Chicago Cubs	70-47
(2)	+2	Tampa Bay Rays	70-46
(3)	---	Los Angeles Angels	73-43
(4)	-2	Boston Red Sox	67-50
(5)	---	Philadelphia Phillies	63-53
(6)	---	Milwaukee Brewers	66-51
(7)	+1	Minnesota Twins	65-51
(8)	-1	Los Angeles Dodgers	58-58
(9)	---	New York Mets	62-54
(10)	---	New York Yankees	63-54
(11)	+3	St. Louis Cardinals	65-54
(12)	+3	Florida Marlins	61-56
(13)	-1	Arizona Diamondbacks	59-58
(14)	-3	Chicago White Sox	64-51
(15)	+3	Texas Rangers	60-58
(16)	-3	Detroit Tigers	57-59
(17)	-1	San Francisco Giants	49-66
(18)	+1	Oakland Athletics	54-62
(19)	+4	Pittsburgh Pirates	53-63
(20)	-3	Cincinnati Reds	52-66
(21)	---	Houston Astros	57-59
(22)	+2	Toronto Blue Jays	59-58
(23)	-1	Atlanta Braves	55-62
(24)	+1	Kansas City Royals	53-64
(25)	-5	Baltimore Orioles	56-59
(26)	---	Colorado Rockies	53-66
(27)	---	Cleveland Indians	51-64
(28)	---	San Diego Padres	45-72
(29)	---	Washington Nationals	44-73
(30)	---	Seattle Mariners	45-72

Difference in Team ERA and Team DERA

So, for those of you who are unaware of what dERA (Defense-Independent ERA), here's a brief definition from Wikipedia:

Defense-Independent ERA (dERA), created by Voros McCracken, projects what a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) would have been, if not for the effects of defense and luck on the actual games in which he pitched.

I think that's pretty point blank. Just go show you which variables are used to determine it, they are: batters faced, home runs allowed, total walks allowed, intentional walks allowed, strikeouts and hit batsmen.

And my point here today is to differentiate between those teams which have most benefited from their defense (ie: have a negative difference between ERA and dERA) and those who have been most hurt. In a round-a-bout way, it's determining who has the best defense without taking into consideration hollow stats like fielding percentage, errors and such.

Onto the numbers...

Most Helped by Defense

Rank	Team	ERA	dERA	DIFF
(1)	Phillies	3.93	4.26	- 0.33
(2)	Athletics	3.73	3.96	- 0.26
(3)	Angels	3.88	4.09	- 0.21
(4)	Rays	3.77	3.95	- 0.18
(5)	Cubs	3.82	4.00	- 0.18
(6)	Brewers	4.00	4.16	- 0.16
(7)	Red Sox	3.77	3.91	- 0.14
(8)	Orioles	4.67	4.80	- 0.13
(9)	Cardinals	4.24	4.36	-0.12
(10)	Mets	4.07	4.16	- 0.09
(11)	Blue Jays	3.67	3.73	- 0.06

Most Hurt by Defense

Rank	Team	ERA	dERA	DIFF
(1)	Rockies	4.82	4.19	+ 0.63
(2)	Rangers	5.31	4.74	+ 0.57
(3)	Royals	4.62	4.05	+ 0.57
(4)	Pirates	5.18	4.69	+ 0.49
(5)	Yankees	4.27	3.84	+ 0.43
(6)	Reds	4.58	4.23	+ 0.35
(7)	Diamondbacks	3.99	3.64	+ 0.35
(8)	Giants	4.27	3.97	+ 0.30
(9)	Mariners	4.42	4.13	+ 0.29
(10)	Padres	4.32	4.05	+ 0.27
(11)	Twins	4.33	4.11	+ 0.22
(12)	Indians	4.40	4.20	+ 0.20
(13)	White Sox	3.99	3.82	+ 0.17
(14)	Marlins	4.52	4.36	+ 0.16
(15)	Dodgers	3.66	3.57	+ 0.09
(16)	Nationals	4.42	4.34	+ 0.08
(17)	Astros	4.58	4.55	+ 0.03
(18)	Tigers	4.52	4.50	+ 0.02
(19)	Braves	4.06	4.05	+ 0.01

Waiver Wire Primer

Ok, so, there is (and always will be) mass confusion over how the waiver period works between July 31 and August 31, so I thought I'd try and help shed a little light on what actually happens during that time.

First, the basic: Any player can be put on waivers, and most are. Teams can put up to seven players on waivers each day, and by the first few weeks, most teams have put their entire 40-man roster on the waiver wire.

Why?

After the trade deadline passes on July 31st, any player a team wishes to trade who is currently on their 40-man roster has to pass through revocable waivers in order to be dealt to another team.

Example: If the Braves wish to trade Will Ohman to another team, he first has to be placed on waivers. If a team places a claim on him, the Braves have 48 hours to work out a deal with the club in question. If no team claims him, the Braves can then trade him to any club at any point over the next 30 days.

Now, how does the process work once a player is placed onto waivers?

First, each team in the league the player's team is in has right to make the first claim. Priority is based on a worst-to-first ranking. So, using the above example, if both the Astros and Phillies claimed Ohman, the Houston would be the winners, because of their having a worse record of the teams making the claim.

If a player passes through their own league without a claim being made, then the opposing league then has a chance to claim the player. So, in order for a team like the Red Sox to claim a National League player, they must first clear waivers in the NL. However, the same worst-to-first priority also works in the opposite league, as well. So, in order for Boston to claim an NL player, the eleven teams with a worse record must also pass.

So, what happens once a player has been claimed?

Ok, here's where it can get a little more confusing.

There are three different options: (a) the original team can revoke the player, (b) try to work out a trade with the team who made the claim or (c) send the player to the team who made the claim with that team accepting all financial burdens tied to the player in question.

Option A: Since the type of waivers we are referring to here are revocable waivers, the team who has placed a player on waivers can pull them back at any point if a team makes a claim. Nothing changes, the player remains on the original team and the team who made the claim has no stake or ties to the player they placed a claim on. The one drawback of this is, a player can only be placed on revocable waivers once. If a team pulls a claimed player back before the 48 hour window closes, they cannot be placed back on waivers within the current season. If they attempt to do so, it will be on irrevocable waivers and the player will be free to go to which ever team makes a claim.

Option B: If a team makes a claim on a player, the original team is free to attempt to work out a deal with that club for the player. The hitch is, any players who are dealt for the original player, must either pass (or have passed) through waivers themselves or not be on the claiming team's 40 man roster. Once it reaches this point, trades work just like they normally would, but with that one small issue.

Option C: If a player is placed on waivers and claimed, the original team has the right to allow the claiming team to acquire the player while accepting their existing contract, play the original team a waiver fee and have to place the player on their active roster. This is the main reason you never see players like Chipper, Manny, Pedro or whoever else has a massive contract claimed -- at any point the original team could pull an "ok, take him, he's yours" and the claiming team would be forced to bite the bullet and take the player. This has happened a number of times, most notably in 2000 when the Devil Rays placed Jose Canseco on waivers, had the Yankees claim him and Tampa freeing themselves of the $3M burden and giving him to New York.

Alright, now, what if a player passes through the three day waiver period without a claim being made? At that point, it becomes similar to option B above. The player is free to be traded to any other ML team, but like with option B, any player acquired for them has to either have passed through waivers or not be on the 40 man roster.

One last note: The blocking of a player. A number of years ago, the Expos had placed Pedro Martinez on waivers and were trying to work out a deal with another team to acquire him. The problem was, before the other team could make the claim on Pedro, another team lower in the standings made a claim on him with no other intentions than to keep him from going to their division rival. That team made the claim, had no intentions of acquiring him, the Expos weren't just going to hand him over, so the 48 hour window passed and Pedro was taken off the waiver wire.

The problem with this is, and could very well be the case with the Red Sox and Padres right now over Brian Giles, what if the waiving team says to take the player? Boston obviously had no interest or desire to acquire Giles when they made the claim to block Tampa from getting him, but now that supposed trade talks have opened up between the two teams, you have to wonder if San Diego may have wanted to turn Giles over to Boston. And if Boston would have been stuck with Giles, perhaps that is what lead to the two clubs opening up trade discussions, mainly for the Pads to also be able to get something for Giles instead of just sending him on his merry way to New England.

One last thing: As I'm sure almost everyone knows by now, in order for a player to qualify to be on a postseason roster, they have to be in an organization by 5pm on August 31st. Any player acquired after that point will not be eligible to play in the postseason.

Alright, are we clear now?

If you have any additional questions, feel free to ask and I'll attempt to answer with the best of my ability.

Power Rankings -- 08/01/08

Rank	Move	Team	W-L
(1)	---	Chicago Cubs	65-44
(2)	+1	Boston Red Sox	61-48
(3)	+2	Los Angeles Angels	68-40
(4)	-2	Tampa Bay Rays	63-44
(5)	-1	Philadelphia Phillies	59-49
(6)	---	Milwaukee Brewers	60-49
(7)	+8	Los Angeles Dodgers	54-54
(8)	+1	Minnesota Twins	60-48
(9)	+1	New York Mets	58-50
(10)	+3	New York Yankees	59-49
(11)	-4	Chicago White Sox	60-47
(12)	-4	Arizona Diamondbacks	56-52
(13)	+1	Detroit Tigers	55-53
(14)	---	St. Louis Cardinals	61-50
(15)	-4	Florida Marlins	58-51
(16)	+3	San Francisco Giants	44-63
(17)	---	Cincinnati Reds	51-58
(18)	---	Texas Rangers	56-53
(19)	-3	Oakland Athletics	53-54
(20)	+1	Baltimore Orioles	51-56
(21)	+4	Houston Astros	50-57
(22)	-2	Atlanta Braves	50-58
(23)	---	Pittsburgh Pirates	50-58
(24)	-2	Toronto Blue Jays	54-54
(25)	+1	Kansas City Royals	50-59
(26)	-2	Colorado Rockies	49-61
(27)	---	Cleveland Indians	47-60
(28)	---	San Diego Padres	42-67
(29)	---	Washington Nationals	38-70
(30)	---	Seattle Mariners	41-67