World Series Best-Fit

Once again, my desire to aimlessly research the useless and mundane has taken over.

This subject this time around is trying to predict the World Series favorite for the 2008 season based on the tendencies of the past thirteen World Series champs -- or those which have won it all during the Wildcard era.

And, yes, I completely realize that the majority of the time, the Series winner ends up being a team that has all the right pieces already in place and gets hot at the right time, but what does it hurt to start taking an early look at who those teams could be?

So, which stats have I taken a look at?

OPS+ and ERA+: Two easy choices. You can't be one of the best teams in the Majors without being at or around the top in pitching and offense.

Pythagorean Winning Percentage: Same mindset as above, only with factoring the luck side of things into the equation.

High-Leverage Batting OPS: Because being successful in clutch situations is the name of the game when it comes to getting things done in September and October. Pitching may win championships, but timely hitting trumps it everytime.

Starting Pitchers Innings Per Start: A team is only as good as it's starting pitching allows it to be. If the starters are getting knocked out of the game early, not only does that put a great deal of pressute on the offense to perform, but it can kill a bullpen in a playoff series.

Starting Pitchers Hits+Walks Per Innings: Starters can work deep into the game, but it doesn't really mean much unless they are being effective in doing so.

Bullpen Strikeouts Per 9 Innings: Much like with starters being able to work deep into the game, the bullpen has to be able to come in and take over control of the game.

Now that we've narrowed the stats down, how did I come about the teams and how they are determined?

Well, I first started by limiting the scope to teams that were currently within striking distance of a playoff spot -- meaning they were within six games of either their division leader or the wildcard leader in their respective league. This cut down the number to sixteen teams: Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, both Chicago teams, Florida, both Los Angeles teams, Milwaukee, Minnesota, both New York teams, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

From there, I cut that list down to the seven teams which fit within the range of the above categories determined by the research on the previous thirteen WS champs. If a team's stats fell below any of those thirteen teams in any of the categories, they were eliminated from the short list. So, that left me with the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, Athletics, Phillies, Cubs and Cardinals.

And, finally, I took those final seven teams and compared their numbers to the average for the World Series champs for the Wildcard era. I simply divided the team's stats by the average for the champions and got a percentage. Then I got an average on those seven percentages.

The best fit team?

As surprising as it may be, at this point in the season, it's the Chicago White Sox.

Here's how the averages ended up:

Chicago White Sox - 105.16%
Chicago Cubs - 104.41%
Boston Red Sox - 102.03%
Philadelphia Phillies - 100.81%
Tampa Bay Rays - 98.67%
St. Louis Cardinals - 96.09%