As a bit of an extension of the previous article, I've decided to focus on six teams and look at the direction their franchise is headed. Like the title says, some are moving forward, while some are falling behind. Here's a deeper look at each.
Moving Forward
Minnesota Twins: It's amazing how year-after-year the Twins are able to produce a list of players who are essentially no-namers in the baseball big picture, yet somehow manager to at least remain competitive in an AL Central which can get extremely competitive down the stretch. Sure, there are a few superstars left in town -- Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan -- but how many casual fans are familiar with the names Jason Kubel, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker? It's amazing how a pitching staff that has been without it's young phenom (Francisco Liriano) for two years now and is relying on Livan Hernandez to anchor the rotation is anywhere near the .500 mark. But they continue to fight on in Minnesota. Even with an offense that ranks deadlast in the Majors in power, players like Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young and Alexi Castilla around, the club is going to have no problems looking ahead to the years to come. Only stopgap starters Mike Lamb and Adam Everett are over 30, with all the key pieces being 27 or younger (Mauer, Morneau, Young, Gomez, Kubel, Castilla, Denard Span). Factor in five young starting pitchers currently in the bigs -- Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey -- and it's easy to see how this Twins team could turn into something special. Sure, they may not get the attention and coverage the Rays have over the past season-plus, but all the pieces are there for them to make the jump very soon.
Florida Marlins: Much like the Twins, the Marlins are also veterans to the trade-develop-win game. Even with sending the last two pieces of their previous World Series championship team to Detroit in the offseason, the Marlins are currently six games over .500, and certainly in contention for the NL East crown, which looks to be a two-team race at this point. And, still, the Marlins have five of the best, young power bats the game has to offer in their lineup on a daily basis -- Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Jeremy Hermida and Cody Ross. And to add to those names, they also currently have Dallas McPherson (who, despite never truly breaking out with the Angles, is only 27 and still has a career isoSLG over .200 and an OPS+ of 96 in almost 400 career plate appearances), outfielders Jai Miller and Brett Carroll (both of which bring speed, pop and a good eye) all to go along with 21 year old uber-prospect Cameron Maybin. Throw in players like Josh Willingham and Jorge Cantu, who are still very serviceable at the ML-level, and you have an offense rich with under-30 depth. Their pitching staff may not have the big names of the offense, but that's not to say there isn't young talent to be seen. We all know how good Andrew Miller can be, it's just a matter of growing into that ability. And for once, troubled lefty Scott Olsen seems to have finally pulled it all together. Pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Rick VandenHurk (despite his many struggles, he's still only 23) aren't to be forgotten either. With those starters turning the game over to Taylor Tankersley, Logan Kensing, renyel Pinto and Kevin Gregg, other offenses can be expected to struggle.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team that has taken a much different approach than the Marlins or Twins. While those two teams have traded proven stars for a wealth of young talent over the years, the Reds have acquired all their talent via great scouting. While Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Joey Votto were early round selections in the draft, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion, Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger, Aaron Harang and Jared Burton were all acquired for almost nothing. The only player out of their youth movement which cost them a household name was Edinson Volquez, which may have left the Reds without Josh Hamilton, but also brought them talented reliever Danny Herrera. There aren't many people who expect this team to win now, honestly, they are at least a season away from making a move in the NL Central, but with the core of young talent present, there isn't any reason to doubt they will be contenders for years to come. Even the veteran players the Reds currently have -- Ken Griffey, Corey Patterson, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Hatteberg, Javier Valentin, Jerry Hairston, Andy Phillips, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers and Josh Fogg -- could go a long way at the trade deadline in suring up the club's minor league system and adding a lot of depth to a team that already has all the talent you could want. With Phillips, Bruce and Votto leading the offense and a potential rotation of Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey and Daryl Thompson, this team is poised to do some serious damage. Even if Dusty Baker remains their manager.
Falling Behind
New York Mets: The Mets are nothing short of an absolute mess. They have no idea where they are headed, they've mortgaged off their future in a series of moves which haven't proven as beneficial as hoped and their front office looks completely lost. Willie Randolph ended up being the fall guy for a team that was so horribly put together, it's no wonder the end result has been the current disaster. Even with the cornerstones of David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran all performing as expected and the Brian Schneider/Ryan Church trade looking to be a success, the Mets lack of young, talented depth is what has ultimately been their downfall. When you are trying to win a division, having the names like Marlon Anderson, Fernando Tatis, Trot Nixon, Damion Easley, Brady Clark and Abraham Nunez as bench players probably isn't the best idea. It's nice to have a few key veterans here and there, but when your average team age is over 30, that's not the way you want to go. Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber, Brian Bannister, Mike Jacobs, Jae Weong Seo, Jeff Keppinger, Xavier Nady, Victor Diaz, Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber and Dan Wheeler are just a handful of the players the Mets have shipped away for stopgap solutions in hopes of winning a division title. Sure, the Santana trade ended up costing the Mets a lot less than anyone originally expected (with the names Ellsbury, Cano and others being floated around) but in it, the Mets lost the last two of the last big-name prospects they had. The one remaining saving grace, outfielder Fernando Martinez, isn't even twenty yet, and is probably still twelve months away from the Majors. Essentially everyone else on their MiL ballclubs are nothing more than your 28-and-over roster fillers. Their pitching staff is even worse. Sure, Santana is locked up for a few years, but outside of John Maine and Mike Pelfrey, there is no one on the horizon to make Mets fans even the slightest bit excited. At least there's the possibility of players like Oliver Perez, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis bringing at least some fringe prospects which could add a little bit of depth.
Seattle Mariners: The only team that could be more a trainwreck than the Mets. There's King Felix, and well, not much else. Even though both are now in their thirties and seemingly on the back end of their careers, Ichiro and Johjima aren't likely to go anywhere because of the Japanese connection with Nintendo, who owns the team. And then there are Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who have been absolute busts and are costing the team more than the entire payroll of the Marlins. And then there is Erik Bedard, who hasn't been anywhere near as dominant as the M's had hoped, and cost them one of the club's biggest prospects of the past decade in Adam Jones, closer-in-waiting George Sherrill and top five prospect, pitcher Chris Tillman. With Jones out of the picture, there isn't an ample supply of young talent to go around. Sure, there are power-hitting youngsters like Wladimir Balentien, but both have struggled in the limited time they have seen this season. That's not to say both are going to be busts, but with Ichiro's move back to right and Johjima and Sexson taking up Clement's positions, it doesn't seem like the organization is in a rush to get them to the Majors. Two players who could certainly help in bolstering the depth down on the farm are Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro, both of which are over thirty and still capable of helping out a contender down the stretch. The future of the pitching staff is what should be the biggest cause for concern -- with Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn being key pieces to the starting rotation -- and closer J.J. Putz seeing his ERA+ drop down to 76. There is at least some hope with relievers Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith, who have been lights out, but again, there isn't much else available on the horizon. With GM Bill Bavasi finally being shown the door, and manager John McLaren also being a mercy kill, maybe there is some hope for the future, but it isn't gonna be an easy or short path.
Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays are another team that is very old and lacking in young depth. Only Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are starters under 30 years old. And of those who are over 30, none are young enough to still be a key contributor somewhere. With players like Lyle Overbay, Scott Rolen, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs all taking up trips to the plate, obviously there isn't much room to even fit in youth in, even if they had it. Even with Adam Lind and Curtis Thigpen ready and available, they are still having to fight to crack the lineup on a team which currently sits in last place in the competitive AL East. The starting pitching actually shows a little promise, with young arms in Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch, all of which are 26 or younger. The problem with the rest of the rotation is A.J. Burnett can't keep himself healthy and no one really knows how much longer Roy Halladay will be able to hold up after logging over 1500 innings before his 30th birthday. While the bullpen has been effective, there are a lot of over-30 arms, along with oft-injured closer B.J. Ryan. So, while the other teams on this list may be destined for a few years of problems to come, the Blue Jays just have to sure up their lineup and reload with some younger guys and get their average age down in the 26 to 27 range. There may not be a lot of young arms in the system, but those that are currently with the big club have a lot of potential and have proven themselves to be very effective thus far.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
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