Atlanta Braves: State of the Organization, Part I - Remainder of 2008

Here we are, the end of June. And even with all the injuries endured, the Braves still only stand four games back from the NL East leading Phillies. Even more impressive than where they currently stand is their remarkable 46-37 Pythagorean won-loss record, which is six games better than their actual 40-43 mark.

The story of the season thus far, aside from the injuries -- which I'll get to shortly -- has been the unbelievable 4-21 record the Braves have posted in one-run games. When you look at the home split for that number, a very pedestrian 4-5, it really makes you wonder what has gone wrong on the road to leave the Braves with an 0-16 mark. Taking the one-run losses completely out of the equation, you see Atlanta has a remarkable 36-22 record, and a much better 12-13 clip on the road.

So, what has gone so wrong the Braves can't get it done in one-run games? Can't blame the bullpen, which has posted a remarkable 114 ERA+ based on the rest of the league's bullpen work. You can't even really blame a lack of quality performances in clutch situations, as Braves pitchers have held opposing hitters to a 105 OPS+ in high leverage sitautions; not excellent, but not necessarily damning either, especially when you see that same number drop to 96 in innings seven through nine. Then it must be the offense, right? Well, in high leverage situations, the Braves bats are right at the league average in OPS, garnering them an OPS+ of 99. In late and close situations, they are even slightly better, putting up a 102 OPS+. Must be their late inning heroics which have been falling short then, right? Not quite, they've posted a 104 OPS+ in the last three innings. And the mystery continues...

One of the biggest factors could be the inconsistency of the Braves lineup. Not the actual pieces, but the names written into it. As of the Braves 83rd game on Sunday, Bobby Cox has written out forty different combinations of the eight position players in their lineup. Granted, that number isn't mind-blowing, a lot of teams have already used over forty different combinations, but the Braves problem has been the lack of depth to use so many different lineups. Given the lengthy injuries to Chipper Jones, Mark Kotsay, Matt Diaz, along with time missed by Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, Cox hasn't had the type of bench talent needed to fill those holes. Sure, Gregor Blanco has proven he's capable of being a ML role player, Omar Infante and Ruben Gotay are well established as being the same and Greg Norton may be a serviceable bat off the bench for most teams, but those four names have already accounted for over 100 games started for the Braves. Losing the offense by having one of those bats in the lineup is bad enough, but considering the Braves have had at least two of those names written in for almost every game, it's easy to see why their offense is on pace to only score 730 runs for the season. And that isn't even factoring in the offensive black-hole that is Corky Miller when he gets a spot start to rest Brian McCann. We all had our doubts entering the season about the depth if something were to happen to key members of the Braves offense, but I don't think any of us anticipated this much missed time from the main pieces.

One thing the offense has to look forward to is Mark Teixeira's offensive explosion over the past month. After posting OPS numbers just below .800 for the first two months of the season, in June he has run up a heavy 1.041 OPS. But the question remains: was it worth it to mortgage such a huge piece of the future last July to acquire him? In his first 135 games in Atlanta, he's posted a line of .293/.389/.544 good for a .933 OPS, 33 homers, 118 RBI and 85 runs scored. Certainly far from horrible numbers. However (and you know there is always an however) over that same timespan, the Braves have gone 68-70. While you can't blame that on Teixeira, the Braves are in the same place -- below .500 and out of first place -- they were prior to the deal being made.

The question has to be asked: Was it worth it? Teixeira gave the Braves all the potential to contend over the past eleven months, even to the point of having numerous highly-respected analysts (Rosenthal, Gammons) picking the Braves to be World Series contenders in '08. But if he walks away to greener pastures -- and you know exactly what type of green I'm talking about -- in New York or Boston after this season, where does that leave the state of the Braves offense? We've already witnessed the turmoil that is trying to piece together a respectable lineup on a daily basis made up greatly of career bench players, what happens if one of the game's premiere 1B goes elsewhere? More on that in the next entry.

Now, how about the pitching staff? As much as we all hate to see it, the careers of John Smoltz and Tom Glavine could be over. Glavine may return for the stretch run this season, but we know that Smoltz is gone for the season and if I had to bet on it, I wouldn't say we see either back in 2009. That isn't to say the starting rotation isn't in good shape, however. There is always Tim Hudson, who has been the Braves one true rock over the past two seasons; and the young trio of Jair Jurrjens, Charlie Morton and the re-emergence of Jo-Jo Reyes have proven to be a very bright spot for the Braves future. Jorge Campillo has also proven to be very formidable, however is often the case with spot-starters who emerge out of nowhere (re: Jorge Sosa, Pete Smith, Terry Mulholland, Damian Moss) they are pitching on borrowed time. He could develop into something worthwhile, but when you are approaching thirty and the Mariners saw fit to give up on you, you just gotta ride it out while it lasts.

What concerns me most is the over-dependence on the bullpen so far. The Braves currently have two pitchers (Blaine Boyer and Will Ohman) who have appeared in over half of the games so far, two which are just below that number (Manny Acosta and Jeff Bennett) and one more (Royce Ring) who has also made over thirty appearances. The only other NL team which has accomplished the same has been the Nationals, who have made 258 pitching chances this season, compared to the Braves making 264. If the Braves do manage to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot, come August and September, it is going to be very interesting to see how those arms have held up given the usage Cox has already gotten out of them.

So, what is left for this club to do down the stretch? Well, the club has already stated they are going to stick with the arms they have for the starting rotation. Fair enough, so far the young guns seem more than capable. But what of the offensive needs? The Braves could definitely use a consistent bat in left, but what are they going to use as the tradebait? They could likely land someone like Raul Ibanez before the deadline, but is it worth giving up a prospect for a 36 year old bat that is going to provide two months of service? It's not quite the same as the Teixeira/Saltalamacchia debate from last year, but is it really worth giving up a piece for the future to get someone like Ibanez when Brandon Jones is already a part of the team? The team is already looking at getting Mark Kotsay's bat back within the next few weeks, which will provide a definite power boost over Gregor Blanco, which will essentially be the same acquiring another bat. What about the bullpen? Well, getting Mike Gonzalez back should have a positive effect on the number of pitchers Cox has to use, as it gets rid of the closer-by-committee that has been in place for most of the season. Phil Stockman also provides a fresh arm down in Richmond if someone's arm does fall off before another can be acquired. And while neither is currently on the 40-man roster, Francisley Bueno and Jorge Julio are both available at Richmond, as well. So theoretically, the Braves have enough pieces they could keep it completely within the organization for the rest of the season, they just have to hope none of the current big names go down with injury before August and September.