The Theory of Saving Some For Tomorrow

It has been a long-standing mindset among baseball fans that instances like this don't often work out for the offense of the team putting up double-digits, but is that really the case?

So far this season, ML teams have scored ten or more runs 69 times and then gone on to have a game the following day.

One of the surprising things about this is the fact the National League has accounted for over half of these occurrences (39, compared to the AL's 30).

But how does the bounce-back the following day differ between the two leagues?

Well, the American League hasn't had a great deal of trouble when it comes to scoring runs the day after an offensive explosion. In 56.7% of those thirty games, teams have either matched or scored more than their season average. The team that has been the least effected by this has been the Detroit Tigers, who have managed to better their season average the next day a remarkable four times, including exploding for nineteen runs against the Rangers a day after scoring on Texas, and then putting up another eight runs the following day. On the flip-side are those very same Texas Rangers, who have managed to score less than their season average three times after putting up double-digits the day before.

Over in the senior circuit, however, things are the complete opposite. National League ballclubs have been unable to match their season average 56.4% of the time. The entire NL East have been struggling mightily especially, putting up less almost 80% of the time. Only two teams (Houston and Milwaukee) have managed to put up better than their normal pace without sputtering at any point. Two East teams (Florida and Philadelphia) have been the worst offenders, managing to score less than their season average every time they have scored ten-plus the day before.

What does all this tell us about conserving runs?

Well, for starters, it's still a relatively small sample size, with only 69 occurrences so far this season. But, there isn't that much substance to the theory of teams being greatly effected by an offensive output the day before. Despite the disparity between the leagues, the overall average for teams bettering or matching their season average is still at 49.3% for the 2008 season.