Random Braves Notes

Getting Things Started

So far this season, the Braves have seen the first hitter of an inning get on base 109 times out of 371 chances. That's good for a .294 OBP. The rest of the NL is putting up a .323 OBP when starting off an inning, however. That's not a very concerning difference, but obviously, your chances of scoring runs is greatly enhanced if you can get that first runner on base.

A much bigger concern shows it's face when you limit those plate appearances to just those starting the game. In the only point during the game you are guaranteed to have your leadoff hitter actually be such, the Braves have seen their top-of-the-order guy reach base only 21.4% of the time. This is over 0100 OBP points below the NL average. While teams like Arizona and Florida have seen their leadoff hitters (Chris Young and Hanley Ramirez, respectively) the Braves have seen Kelly Johnson put up an atrocious .291 OPS to start the game.

Feeling the Pressure

Another area the Braves have also seen their bats struggle has been in high leverage situations. The leverage of a situation is based off of the leverage index, which weighs plate appearances based on how much they influence a team's win probability. High leverage situations account for about 20% of all plays, while medium and low leverage both account for around 40% each.

Here's how the Braves look in 2008:

Atlanta Braves
Leverage	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High	.238	.312	.310	.622
Medium	.272	.341	.426	.768
Low	.305	.374	.487	.861

Compare that to the NL average thus far:

National League
Leverage	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High	.257	.341	.392	.732
Medium	.263	.333	.417	.750
Low	.258	.330	.410	.740

This creates some very odd discrepancies for when the Braves are scoring their runs.

While the National League is averaging 38.4% of their runs scored in high leverage situations, the Braves are only putting up 30.5% of their runs in similar situations. Considering these high leverage situations are usually ones with games on the line, that statistic doesn't bode well for Atlanta, and certainly sheds some light on why they are 2-12 (.143) in games settled by one run.

Calls to the Bullpen

Through the first 42 games of the season, the Braves have already seen their relievers make 143 appearances. Factoring out the Braves lone complete game from Tim Hudson, that averages out to 3.49 relief appearances per game for the Braves. While that isn't far above the NL average of 3.03 relief appearances per game in non-CGs, it's one of those stats that will do much more damage over time. Especially considering other RP in the NL are averaging 1.10 IP per appearance, while the Braves are averaging just under an inning per outing.

Only time will tell if Bobby Cox can continue making the trip out to the mound at this pace without burning out some of his relievers, which could be quite damning for a team that has already lost Peter Moylan for the season, Rafael Soriano for an extended period of time, and don't have a strong grasp on when Mike Gonzalez will return.