A Deeper Look at Mark Teixeira's Slow Start

So, everyone has been trying to justify Mark Teixeira's slow start in 2008 by saying that he's routinely been a player who takes a while to get things going. But is that really the case?

I decided to dig a little further on Tex and see if he really deserved the reputation everyone has been saddling him with over the past six weeks. To do this, I split up his seasons into three different sections: the first fifty games, the second fifty games, and the remainder of the season. So let's start off by taking a look at how Mark has started each of his seasons in the Majors.

First 50 Games
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	.242	.335	.466	.801
2004	.247	.346	.484	.830
2005	.293	.350	.548	.898
2006	.284	.380	.447	.827
2007	.305	.390	.537	.927
Total	.276	.361	.498	.859

Now, how do these numbers compare to Mark's 2008 numbers so far?

First 50 Games of 2008
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	.247	.337	.409	.746

Granted, entering today, he had played in forty games, ten short of the amount I used to split up the numbers over the course of his career, but even with those ten games being absent, Mark is still nowhere near where he has routinely been at this point in the season. Even when he struggled out of the gate during his rookie season, his power numbers were still .057 points higher.

So what is going on with Teixeira? Is it the adjustment he is having to make to NL pitching? Well, possibly, but considering the success he had over two months last season, and the fact he never really struggled during interleague prior to that, it's hard to say.

Probably the most alarming thing so far this season has been the drop off in isoSLG that Tex's numbers have taken. The only season he hadn't posted an isoSLG over .220 at this point in the season was in 2006, and even then, his average and OBP were still at a respectable level.

Something to consider is just how much Mark has struggled at getting solid contact. Entering this season, on balls Teixeira put into play, he wasn't getting the ball out of the infield in 28.47% of his plate appearances. This season, that number has jumped up to 37.14%. So, while Tex has seen his strikeout rate drop this season -- from 18.52% of his PA entering this season to 12.57% in '08 -- the balls he does put into play have often turned into infield outs.

The oddity in this is that his isoOBP is still on pace with that he's put up previously to start the season. So, I don't think it is so much that Mark is swinging at bad pitches, it's seems more like he's pressing and simply struggling to make good contact. Even his pitch count totals are right on pace with what he has normally put up -- the same percentage of first-pitch PAs as well as PAs were he was behind the count or had two strikes on him.

Alright, enough of dealing what has been so far, what can the Braves expect for the remainder of the season based on Teixeira's career trends?

Second 50 Games
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	.270	.343	.486	.829
2004	.278	.351	.620	.971
2005	.270	.366	.545	.911
2006	.258	.336	.479	.815
2007	.287	.404	.597	1.001
Total	.272	.360	.545	.905

His overall totals from the second set of fifty games aren't much off from those to start the season, however his power numbers do take a significant jump up, as his isoSLG makes a leap from a respectable .222 to a very impressive .273 clip.

So, how can we use those numbers to project what Tex is likely to do over the second fifty games of 2008? Well, let us first look at the difference over the course of his career.

His batting average has seen a slight drop (-1.45%), on base percentage has stayed about the same (-0.28%) and his slugging percentage has went up (9.44%).

Based off his numbers so far, his second fifty games of 2008 should produce numbers comparable to this:

Second 50 Games of 2008 (Projection)
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	.243	.336	.448	.784

Still far below his career numbers, but we all know that nothing is a guarantee in baseball.

Now, let's wrap things up by looking at how Tex wraps things up.

Remainder of Season
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	.262	.315	.486	.801
2004	.320	.415	.576	.991
2005	.335	.415	.623	1.038
2006	.300	.392	.599	.991
2007	.333	.410	.553	.963
Total	.309	.390	.573	.963

Obviously, Mark has really exploded down the stretch over his career. The only season he hasn't put up MVP caliber numbers in the season's last ten weeks or so was his rookie season in 2003. Since then, he has become an absolute beast during the dog days of the summer.

His batting average makes a nice jump (13.60%), his OBP also rises (8.33%) and his slugging percentage goes up, as well (5.14%).

Alright, now, assuming he is able to make those same improvements to the projections I just laid out for the second third of the season, how does his 2008 numbers down the stretch look?

Remainder of 2008 (Projection)
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	.276	.364	.471	.835

Still not mindblowing numbers, but certainly better than anything we've seen up until this point.

Alright, now, if we combine the three totals for 2008 -- what he has actually done thus far, along with the two projections -- what is the worst-case scenario for Teixeira's season?

Overall Projection for 2008
Year	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	.255	.346	.444	.790

Definitely not the type of stats the Braves want out of their cleanup hitter in 2008, but certainly more appealing than what they had to put up with out of Andruw Jones last season.