Tuesday, May 20, 2008

A Deeper Look at Kelly Johnson & Platoons

So, earlier today, I took a look at Jeff Francoeur and how he related to players who were not only his positional peers, but also very close to him statistically. In doing so, I was actually surprised to see to see the names which appeared on the list, despite the amount of flack Francoeur gets for not living up to the high expectations Braves fans have placed on him. Another hot topic as of late has been Bobby Cox's insistence on occasionally platooning out Kelly Johnson with Martin Prado, prior to his injury, or Omar Infante, now that he has returned from the disabled list. The question has been asked numerous times as to whether or not this is truly a decision that is beneficial to the Braves lineup, or detrimental to it.

This lead me to once again hit the stats and see just how Kelly compares to those other 2B in the Majors during the Post-Strike Era (PSE) who have put up comparable stats through this point in their career. Now, granted, Kelly hasn't played second during his entire tenure at the big league level, but his approach at the plate has not been impacted by this, and I don't think anyone can argue that his future in the Majors is likely at second.

For this group of players, my qualifiers were players who made their debut in the PSE, had at least 1000 plate appearances in their first three seasons, put up an OBP over .340, a SLG over .425 and an OPS+ over 100 while playing 60% of their games at second (to qualify Kelly).

Once again, to the table we go...

PlayerPAOBPSLGOPS+
Kelly Johnson
1093
.358
.441
109
Robinson Cano
1728
.346
.489
117
Marcus Giles
1150
.362
.476
115
Ian Kinsler
1244
.353
.446
109
Junior Spivey
1229
.363
.453
105
Chase Utley
1067
.350
.496
115

Quite the interesting list.

Of course, the names Utley and Cano are going to be on there, as they -- along with Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla -- are the players on top of the 2B mountain. I think the most surprising names are Marcus Giles and Junior Spivey, however. Of course, we're all familiar with Giles and the controversy that has popped up since his downfall, which began in 2006, which makes it even more frustrating to have us all be reminded that he was once putting up numbers comparable to what the best 2B in the league are doing now. The other name, Spivey, is a huge shocker. A lot of people forget just how good he was in 2002 -- actually garnering some MVP votes for the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

And then there is Ian Kinsler, who is essentially the American League's equivalent of Kelly Johnson. Both players are 26 years of age, and have stats which are very close to being equal. The only huge difference between the two is Kinsler has a bit more power (which can likely be attributed to playing in Arlington) and Kelly has a higher PA/BB rate (which has also contributed to his having a higher strikeout rate).

So, the question to be asked here is this: Would any manager platoon Utley, Cano or Kinsler? I believe the more than obvious answer here is "no, of course not."

Now, if there is one thing Braves fans have come to realize over the course of the past eighteen years it is Bobby Cox has a tendency to work in a possible platoon on any occasion where he feels a LH starter doesn't have what it takes to stand tall with the rest of the league's average players at their position.

I'll set the qualifier as two players of differing handiness who both saw over 30% of the team's starts at a position.

Let's take a look at some of those platoons over the years...

YearPOS
LHB
RHB
1991
1B
Sid Bream
Brian Hunter
1993
CF
Deion SandersOtis Nixon (SH)
1997
RF
Michael Tucker
Andruw Jones
1998
2B
Keith Lockhart
Tony Graffanino

SS
Ozzie Guillen
Walt Weiss (SH)
1999
1B
Ryan Klesko
Randall Simon
Brian Hunter

SS
Ozzie Guillen
Walt Weiss (SH)

LF
Ryan Klesko
Gerald Williams
2000
2B
Keith Lockhart
Quilvio Veras

SS
Rafael Furcal (SH)
Walt Weiss (SH)
2001
1B
Rico Brogna
Wes Helms

2B
Quilvio Veras (SH)
Marcus Giles
2002
1B
Matt Franco
Julio Franco
2004
1B
Adam LaRoche
Julio Franco

LF
Charles Thomas
Eli Marrero
2005
1B
Adam LaRoche
Julio Franco

LF
Kelly Johnson
Ryan Langerhans
Brian Jordan
2007
LF
Willie Harris
Matt Diaz

Doesn't take much to notice there has been a whole lot of platooning going on down in A-town over the past two decades.

So, where does this leave Kelly Johnson and his chances of getting the 600+ plate appearances he did last season? Honestly, not good. If there is one thing the platoon chart has shown is, it is that Bobby Cox has no problem benching a superior LHB just to play the matchup against a LHP. And with Omar Infante coming out of the gates hot this season, this could very easily turn into a situation where Infante gets a lot more playing time than he normally would. The fortunate thing is, unlike last season with the Harris/Diaz situation, Johnson is going to be guaranteed more starts because he is the lefty in any possible platoon scenario. While Cox has routinely shown he strongly favors LHP/RHB matchups, he also has a soft-spot for RHP/LHB matchups, as well, so it isn't likely Infante will be stealing any starts from Kelly with a righty on the mound.

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